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No company has the slightest clue what the economic environment will look like in 3 years, much less 5.

by metadat 4y ago

HDThoreaun 4y ago
Hence the layoffs. They still have to try though
- metadat 4y ago
  Do they really need to "try" by laying peole off? Why is this the standard move despite the business and finances still booming? It's a weird MBA monkey mimicry game. I dislike Amazon yet continue to order stuff at the same rate. How many non-government entities have a base like this? Seems like an enviable position. How many layoff announcements have you seen where the company says "We'd love to keep pursuing this but we flat out can't afford to pay you, we are out of money"? I've seen zero. I understand some of this is prudent financial planning, especially for SMBs, but SFDC and AMZN.. they must be using different calculus. Amazon appears less dependent on the nearly-free-money-gravy-train compared to most businesses, especially VC and startups. Edit: dkrich's comment states it better than I can in every way: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34254450 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34254450
  - HDThoreaun 4y ago
    Companies, especially tech companies, invest in their future. Sometimes those bets don’t pay off, sometimes it’s because of external factors. That doesn’t mean those were bad bets necessarily, they just got unlucky. It does mean investors want them to move on to something else though, even if the company as a whole isn’t in a crisis.
  - lmm 4y ago
    If your best guess for what the market is going to be in 3-5 years is now half what you were guessing last week, surely that means you make some changes, and past a certain point you want to make a bigger change than what's going to happen by just freezing hiring and waiting for natural attrition. I'm no fan of companies doing this, but the logic makes sense.
lapcat 4y ago
So true. Which company predicted there would be a global pandemic starting at the end of 2019? None. Impossible to predict. Which company predicted 9/11? None. Shit happens, and nobody is a prophet.
- kaesar14 4y ago
  It’s a good thing the only cost of their prediction capabilities is human welfare and security, small potatoes in the end.

No company has the slightest clue what the economic environment will look like in 3 years, much less 5.

HDThoreaun 4y ago

Hence the layoffs. They still have to try though

metadat 4y ago
Do they really need to "try" by laying peole off? Why is this the standard move despite the business and finances still booming? It's a weird MBA monkey mimicry game. I dislike Amazon yet continue to order stuff at the same rate. How many non-government entities have a base like this? Seems like an enviable position. How many layoff announcements have you seen where the company says "We'd love to keep pursuing this but we flat out can't afford to pay you, we are out of money"? I've seen zero. I understand some of this is prudent financial planning, especially for SMBs, but SFDC and AMZN.. they must be using different calculus. Amazon appears less dependent on the nearly-free-money-gravy-train compared to most businesses, especially VC and startups. Edit: dkrich's comment states it better than I can in every way: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34254450 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34254450
- HDThoreaun 4y ago
  Companies, especially tech companies, invest in their future. Sometimes those bets don’t pay off, sometimes it’s because of external factors. That doesn’t mean those were bad bets necessarily, they just got unlucky. It does mean investors want them to move on to something else though, even if the company as a whole isn’t in a crisis.
- lmm 4y ago
  If your best guess for what the market is going to be in 3-5 years is now half what you were guessing last week, surely that means you make some changes, and past a certain point you want to make a bigger change than what's going to happen by just freezing hiring and waiting for natural attrition. I'm no fan of companies doing this, but the logic makes sense.

lapcat 4y ago

So true. Which company predicted there would be a global pandemic starting at the end of 2019? None. Impossible to predict. Which company predicted 9/11? None. Shit happens, and nobody is a prophet.

kaesar14 4y ago
It’s a good thing the only cost of their prediction capabilities is human welfare and security, small potatoes in the end.