It’s only a gut feeling, based largely on the predictions and accounts I’ve seen from those with actual first hand knowledge around the reasonable questions tha

It’s only a gut feeling, based largely on the predictions and accounts I’ve seen from those with actual first hand knowledge around the reasonable questions that you pose. My framework for thinking about this at a technical level is that short term improvements can come from a number of factors, including optimizing the number of parameters, more data, better data preparation and selection, hyper parameter tuning, etc. I understand that many of the emergent capabilities we’ve seen recently from LLMs have come from more data, and I’m honestly not sure how to assess where short term accuracy improvement is most likely to come from.