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I really wish he would cite his sources for a bunch of the specifics of his research. Like China's navy not being able to go more than 500 miles off shore, or G

I really wish he would cite his sources for a bunch of the specifics of his research. Like China's navy not being able to go more than 500 miles off shore, or German solar/wind capacity being so over-built out that the theoretical (given endless sun and wind) power generation is twice that of the actual power generation. When I try to look up publicly available data on his claims, either I get nowhere or the data I can find is nowhere near as drastic as his summaries. I also find it baffling how someone so clearly intelligent and willing to burst bubbles seems to not be able to consider the US breaking down internally along with the break down of globalization. He's ignoring that the country is on the edge of long term civil conflict (or based on your view, has already begun the descent).

ericmay 4y ago
> I also find it baffling how someone so clearly intelligent and willing to burst bubbles seems to not be able to consider the US breaking down internally along with the break down of globalization. He's ignoring that the country is on the edge of long term civil conflict (or based on your view, has already begun the descent). I think from what I read of his previously, it's more of a "we're not as bad off as them" and less of a "it can't happen here". But I don't see the US really breaking down in the near term politically because as bad and heated as words have gotten nothing substantial has really changed. It's mostly business as usual. If you will also recall back when we didn't really "know" what the pandemic was going to be the whole country was pretty united. There was some toilet paper hoarding but that was about it. I do think some of the homogeneity of the US will be lost and that will cause some local instability and terrorism like the terrorists who attacked power substations and such, but things have really calmed down and have been continuing to do so. We'll lose homogeneity because of the Internet and because we don't have a unifying voice or cause to crusade, but even white nationalists go to the movies and eat ice cream.
- jandrewrogers 4y ago
  > the terrorists who attacked power substations People jumping to the conclusion that everything is terrorism in the absence of concrete evidence is part of the problem. They caught the Washington State substation attackers; it was caused by a couple of not-very-smart criminals attempting an ordinary burglary in a creative way. Actual terrorism is incredibly rare in the US, no matter how hard the media tries to find some.
  - ericmay 4y ago
    Of course it's rare (this supports my assertion that the US is stable), but Washington State wasn't the only attack [1] and won't be the last, and that's just a specific type of attack on specific infrastructure. We can move all sorts of goal posts around what is or isn't terrorism, but you can apply the easy rule which is if Islamic people did this would we consider it terrorism. If yes, then it's also terrorism when white supremacist groups do it too (or any politically motivated group). [1] https://myfox8.com/news/investigations/power-grid-attack/neo-nazi-power-substation-plots/ https://myfox8.com/news/investigations/power-grid-attack/neo...
- Izkata 4y ago
  > But I don't see the US really breaking down in the near term politically because as bad and heated as words have gotten nothing substantial has really changed. It's mostly business as usual. > If you will also recall back when we didn't really "know" what the pandemic was going to be the whole country was pretty united. There was some toilet paper hoarding but that was about it. Also riots across the country and a whole bunch of "autonomous zones"...
  - ericmay 4y ago
    Yea the riots were annoying (in the sense of an annoyance to the established democratic government) but like other riots they went away. It’s pretty much back to business as usual.
throwawaymaths 4y ago
> Like China's navy not being able to go more than 500 miles off shore This has been basically true until recently. china certainly has individual ships capable of long distance expeditionary activities but lacks the supply chain to project a large and sustained force globally, and not even in large numbers to places it cares about like the middle east (to protect oil shipments from piracy or state meddling). This is why they are investing in bases like Djibouti, gwadar, sri Lanka, but even so key choke points like Malacca are still vulnerable and those bases are not likely to be able to support say more than a small carrier group anytime soon I had a friend that worked in carrier supply. Let's just say it's a very involved system where you HAVE to have a network of extra national allies to do it well, you can't go it alone which is increasingly what china seems like it will have to face given its diplomatic attitude of late
- dangerwill 4y ago
  Yeah but when I look at a map, all they would need to maintain access to Persian gulf oil is a partner in the Indian Ocean and a partner in the Malacca straits. They have strong relationships with Sri Lanka and Singapore and Malaysia. Warrior wolf diplomacy probably did kill the larger belt and road initiative (eg, getting a stronger supply chain to Europe and pulling Europe out of the American sphere) but keeping the lights on vis a vis oil seems quite possible for China.

ericmay 4y ago

> I also find it baffling how someone so clearly intelligent and willing to burst bubbles seems to not be able to consider the US breaking down internally along with the break down of globalization. He's ignoring that the country is on the edge of long term civil conflict (or based on your view, has already begun the descent). I think from what I read of his previously, it's more of a "we're not as bad off as them" and less of a "it can't happen here". But I don't see the US really breaking down in the near term politically because as bad and heated as words have gotten nothing substantial has really changed. It's mostly business as usual. If you will also recall back when we didn't really "know" what the pandemic was going to be the whole country was pretty united. There was some toilet paper hoarding but that was about it. I do think some of the homogeneity of the US will be lost and that will cause some local instability and terrorism like the terrorists who attacked power substations and such, but things have really calmed down and have been continuing to do so. We'll lose homogeneity because of the Internet and because we don't have a unifying voice or cause to crusade, but even white nationalists go to the movies and eat ice cream.

jandrewrogers 4y ago
> the terrorists who attacked power substations People jumping to the conclusion that everything is terrorism in the absence of concrete evidence is part of the problem. They caught the Washington State substation attackers; it was caused by a couple of not-very-smart criminals attempting an ordinary burglary in a creative way. Actual terrorism is incredibly rare in the US, no matter how hard the media tries to find some.
- ericmay 4y ago
  Of course it's rare (this supports my assertion that the US is stable), but Washington State wasn't the only attack [1] and won't be the last, and that's just a specific type of attack on specific infrastructure. We can move all sorts of goal posts around what is or isn't terrorism, but you can apply the easy rule which is if Islamic people did this would we consider it terrorism. If yes, then it's also terrorism when white supremacist groups do it too (or any politically motivated group). [1] https://myfox8.com/news/investigations/power-grid-attack/neo-nazi-power-substation-plots/ https://myfox8.com/news/investigations/power-grid-attack/neo...
Izkata 4y ago
> But I don't see the US really breaking down in the near term politically because as bad and heated as words have gotten nothing substantial has really changed. It's mostly business as usual. > If you will also recall back when we didn't really "know" what the pandemic was going to be the whole country was pretty united. There was some toilet paper hoarding but that was about it. Also riots across the country and a whole bunch of "autonomous zones"...
- ericmay 4y ago
  Yea the riots were annoying (in the sense of an annoyance to the established democratic government) but like other riots they went away. It’s pretty much back to business as usual.

throwawaymaths 4y ago

> Like China's navy not being able to go more than 500 miles off shore This has been basically true until recently. china certainly has individual ships capable of long distance expeditionary activities but lacks the supply chain to project a large and sustained force globally, and not even in large numbers to places it cares about like the middle east (to protect oil shipments from piracy or state meddling). This is why they are investing in bases like Djibouti, gwadar, sri Lanka, but even so key choke points like Malacca are still vulnerable and those bases are not likely to be able to support say more than a small carrier group anytime soon I had a friend that worked in carrier supply. Let's just say it's a very involved system where you HAVE to have a network of extra national allies to do it well, you can't go it alone which is increasingly what china seems like it will have to face given its diplomatic attitude of late

dangerwill 4y ago
Yeah but when I look at a map, all they would need to maintain access to Persian gulf oil is a partner in the Indian Ocean and a partner in the Malacca straits. They have strong relationships with Sri Lanka and Singapore and Malaysia. Warrior wolf diplomacy probably did kill the larger belt and road initiative (eg, getting a stronger supply chain to Europe and pulling Europe out of the American sphere) but keeping the lights on vis a vis oil seems quite possible for China.