4 ms·

Thank goodness When China does something crazy like Russia we have to be ready to cut economic ties with them - and the TSMC story (and Intel building fabs in

Thank goodness When China does something crazy like Russia we have to be ready to cut economic ties with them - and the TSMC story (and Intel building fabs in Ohio and Europe) are the first steps towards that.

vkou 4y ago
That's about as likely as the rest of the world cutting economic ties with the US when it does something crazy, like invading a middle eastern country to satisfy it's presidents ego. (Finishing the job Dad started.[1]) Russia is not China, all it brought to the table was exporting a single commodity, while being utterly dependant on imports. And either way, India and China didn't play ball with sanctions. [1] There were a few other causes for that conflict, but 'Colin Powell lies his ass off in front of the UN' wasn't any better, and neither was 'we paid defectors money until we found one that would sing to the tune we wanted to hear'.
- ElevenLathe 4y ago
  Absolutely, the Chinese economy is the world economy. Everywhere else is the periphery.
  - Retric 4y ago
    US China trade is vastly smaller than many seem to think. China is #1 in imports, but that’s only 1/6th of the total US imports. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_pa... US GDP is roughly 50x as large as what we get from China.
    - ElevenLathe 4y ago
      GDP is a horrible way to think about actual international trade, because western GDP is pumped up by services, IP (and monumentally expensive machines that are mainly IP wrapped in steel). Meanwhile China exports actual stuff. In a real "embargo China" situation, China and their sphere of influence could easily replace Europe and the US while the opposite is not true.
      - Retric 4y ago
        Food, cars, medicine, housing etc make up a huge chunk of the real economy dwarfing much of what we think of as IP industries. As an example, 90% of toilet paper used in the US is manufactured in the US and that’s fairly common in most industries. Music is a great example of this it plays an outsized role in peoples minds but is a tiny fraction of the economy. China is a major part of the worlds supply chain and the kinds of things people buy regularly with disposable income but we can get cheap shoes and electronics elsewhere. Hell many companies are moving manufacturing out of China. Anyway, take a deeper dive at China’s imports not just exports and I think you would be surprised.
    - slaw 4y ago
      Imports from China are vastly more important for regular consumer. Without China there are no phones, no cars can be built, no household appliances and so on. Almost everything you have at home is made in China. That's why people assume China is the world global economy.
      - andsoitis 4y ago
        A factory does not an economy make. You need buyers & sellers. You need inputs into whatever you produce. You cannot just trade with yourself.
      - Retric 4y ago
        China isn’t sending Food, cars, housing, medicine, which is the vast majority of the average households budget. China produces a great deal of stuff like clothes, toasters, tv’s, and phones but so does the rest of the world. Malaysia is manufacturing meany of the things people think of as cheap Chinese crap because Chinese factory workers are getting a little too expensive for various things.
        gausswho 4y ago
        Medicine doesn't belong in your list. The US imports 90 percent of our antibiotics from China, among many other pharmaceuticals.
        floxy 4y ago
        Would you share your source for that? https://reason.com/2020/04/06/why-you-shouldnt-trust-anyone-who-claims-80-percent-of-americas-drugs-come-from-china/ https://reason.com/2020/04/06/why-you-shouldnt-trust-anyone-...
        Retric 4y ago
        That’s wildly incorrect. America gets ~1.5 Billion dollars a year worth of Medicine from China, which is 1% of the total drug imports let alone what happens when you include domestic production.
- m00dy 4y ago
  US dollar is still global currency for international settlements. So, not really sure that will happen soon
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- VK538FY 4y ago
  That's a bit disingenuous regarding Russia. It's true that hydrocarbons are the lion's share but take a look at this list for example. https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/exports https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/exports I'm often surprised by what I learn of the Russian economy, especially over the past year. - Nobles gases used for the production of semiconductors are produced in large part by Russia. I've seen and forgotten some other examples where I said to myself 'huh, I didn't know that was made in Russia... ooops'. - Russia produces significantly more cereals than Ukraine. Worth mentioning, since it comes up frequently. - Hydrocarbons are the biggest combined export but the relative amount and the very low cost of production are impressive, downright advantageous. - Russia's GDP is often understated (see nominal vs PPP basis), making its true economic size comparable to that of Germany while far less dependant on services. - Russia has an enormous appetite for imports (luxury goods and consumer electronics come to mind) but it's worth noting that shelves are far from empty and the Russian agricultural and food transformation industries have really stepped up their game in the past 10 or so years. There's a lot of condescension towards the Russian economy that is propelled by western 'Russia experts' who frankly aren't very smart or honest. Downright dangerous if you ask me, since western politicians may very well base their decisions on incomplete or incorrect information.

vkou 4y ago

That's about as likely as the rest of the world cutting economic ties with the US when it does something crazy, like invading a middle eastern country to satisfy it's presidents ego. (Finishing the job Dad started.[1]) Russia is not China, all it brought to the table was exporting a single commodity, while being utterly dependant on imports. And either way, India and China didn't play ball with sanctions. [1] There were a few other causes for that conflict, but 'Colin Powell lies his ass off in front of the UN' wasn't any better, and neither was 'we paid defectors money until we found one that would sing to the tune we wanted to hear'.

ElevenLathe 4y ago
Absolutely, the Chinese economy is the world economy. Everywhere else is the periphery.
- Retric 4y ago
  US China trade is vastly smaller than many seem to think. China is #1 in imports, but that’s only 1/6th of the total US imports. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_pa... US GDP is roughly 50x as large as what we get from China.
  - ElevenLathe 4y ago
    GDP is a horrible way to think about actual international trade, because western GDP is pumped up by services, IP (and monumentally expensive machines that are mainly IP wrapped in steel). Meanwhile China exports actual stuff. In a real "embargo China" situation, China and their sphere of influence could easily replace Europe and the US while the opposite is not true.
    - Retric 4y ago
      Food, cars, medicine, housing etc make up a huge chunk of the real economy dwarfing much of what we think of as IP industries. As an example, 90% of toilet paper used in the US is manufactured in the US and that’s fairly common in most industries. Music is a great example of this it plays an outsized role in peoples minds but is a tiny fraction of the economy. China is a major part of the worlds supply chain and the kinds of things people buy regularly with disposable income but we can get cheap shoes and electronics elsewhere. Hell many companies are moving manufacturing out of China. Anyway, take a deeper dive at China’s imports not just exports and I think you would be surprised.
  - slaw 4y ago
    Imports from China are vastly more important for regular consumer. Without China there are no phones, no cars can be built, no household appliances and so on. Almost everything you have at home is made in China. That's why people assume China is the world global economy.
    - andsoitis 4y ago
      A factory does not an economy make. You need buyers & sellers. You need inputs into whatever you produce. You cannot just trade with yourself.
    - Retric 4y ago
      China isn’t sending Food, cars, housing, medicine, which is the vast majority of the average households budget. China produces a great deal of stuff like clothes, toasters, tv’s, and phones but so does the rest of the world. Malaysia is manufacturing meany of the things people think of as cheap Chinese crap because Chinese factory workers are getting a little too expensive for various things.
      - gausswho 4y ago
        Medicine doesn't belong in your list. The US imports 90 percent of our antibiotics from China, among many other pharmaceuticals.
        floxy 4y ago
        Would you share your source for that? https://reason.com/2020/04/06/why-you-shouldnt-trust-anyone-who-claims-80-percent-of-americas-drugs-come-from-china/ https://reason.com/2020/04/06/why-you-shouldnt-trust-anyone-...
        Retric 4y ago
        That’s wildly incorrect. America gets ~1.5 Billion dollars a year worth of Medicine from China, which is 1% of the total drug imports let alone what happens when you include domestic production.
m00dy 4y ago
US dollar is still global currency for international settlements. So, not really sure that will happen soon
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
VK538FY 4y ago
That's a bit disingenuous regarding Russia. It's true that hydrocarbons are the lion's share but take a look at this list for example. https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/exports https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/exports I'm often surprised by what I learn of the Russian economy, especially over the past year. - Nobles gases used for the production of semiconductors are produced in large part by Russia. I've seen and forgotten some other examples where I said to myself 'huh, I didn't know that was made in Russia... ooops'. - Russia produces significantly more cereals than Ukraine. Worth mentioning, since it comes up frequently. - Hydrocarbons are the biggest combined export but the relative amount and the very low cost of production are impressive, downright advantageous. - Russia's GDP is often understated (see nominal vs PPP basis), making its true economic size comparable to that of Germany while far less dependant on services. - Russia has an enormous appetite for imports (luxury goods and consumer electronics come to mind) but it's worth noting that shelves are far from empty and the Russian agricultural and food transformation industries have really stepped up their game in the past 10 or so years. There's a lot of condescension towards the Russian economy that is propelled by western 'Russia experts' who frankly aren't very smart or honest. Downright dangerous if you ask me, since western politicians may very well base their decisions on incomplete or incorrect information.