4 ms·

The 70s when one earner (even a factory worker) could still afford a house and kids and wealth gaps were way smaller? Better times for sure unless you're very r

The 70s when one earner (even a factory worker) could still afford a house and kids and wealth gaps were way smaller? Better times for sure unless you're very rich.

Manuel_D 4y ago
Being able to afford a house back in the 1970s was less due to factory jobs paying better, and more due to houses being a lot cheaper. Some goods, like computing information systems, have gotten a lot cheaper. Other goods, chiefly housing, education, and healthcare have gotten a lot more expensive. And it's not any easy path to making the latter less expensive: land is finite, a there's a much bigger proportion of people entering college than in the 1970s, and the population distribution is skewing older.
- tchaffee 4y ago
  You're forgetting that increases in productivity used to be partially shared with the middle class who enjoyed a rising standard of life as a result. Around that time it changed with the rich keeping all those profits to themselves. If middle class salaries had kept up, houses and education would be affordable.
  - Manuel_D 4y ago
    Higher salaries don't solve shortages. If there's 200 buyers for 150 homes, higher salaries would just let those buyer make larger bids. In order to let the poorest 50 people get homes, we need 50 more homes.
    - int_19h 4y ago
      There are dozens of vacant homes in US for each homeless person. The national vacancy rate is something like 10%.
      - Manuel_D 4y ago
        In the US as a whole, sure. But the housing affordability issues aren't across the whole US: it's in specific metros. Houses in Nebraska don't solve the affordability crisis in San Francisco. Furthermore, people aren't exactly keen on letting homeless people live in their property for free. Hotels in my city experimented with this: they got small checks for housing homeless people during COVID, when lockdown massacred the hospitality market. It was a complete disaster: the rooms were trashed and they lost more money than they received from the government.
        tchaffee 4y ago
        Housing affordability issues are indeed across the whole US if you include local wage rates in the equation. The middle class simply can no longer afford the same housing as they could on a single earner wage as they could when tax rates on the rich were 70%. A lot of the problem is hedge funds grabbing up huge numbers of houses across the country and then jacking up the rents using collusion through software. At a 70٪ tax rate that money to grab up so many properties wouldn't even be there. https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/10/company-that-makes-rent-setting-software-for-landlords-sued-for-collusion/ https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/10/company-that-mak...
    - tchaffee 4y ago
      Good thing there isn't a housing shortage. And most countries easily manage to pay for education and healthcare.
      - Manuel_D 4y ago
        There is indeed a housing shortage, or more specifically shortages in desirable metros. American cities are refusing to build denser residencies, driving up the cost of housing. Most countries aren't America. Germany, as a point of comparison, had half the share of it's population enrolled in university. Part of this is because of age distribution: America is younger and has more college age people. Also, about 50% of German high schoolers go on to university as compared to 70% of Americans. People keep pointing to the European education system, but my retort is that following Europe's example would entail reducing enrollment considerably. Healthcare is indeed one place where administrative changes could solve things. Most European countries, along with Japan and South Korea, work by giving citizens a stipend to spend on a healthcare plan from a marketplace of providers (either directly, or indirectly through subsidizing plans). This is largely what Romney was proposing in 2012, but that effort fizzled out. Unfortunately, the one party in America in favor of healthcare reform seems to be laser focused on a fully nationalized healthcare to the exclusion of anything else.
        tchaffee 4y ago
        A "housing shortage in desirable metros" is moving the goal posts. The claim was that unaffordable housing can only be attributed to a shortage and has nothing to do with massively increased wealth gaps nor the shrinking middle class. "Most countries aren't America" is just an excuse. Most European countries aren't Germany. So by that reasoning most European countries can't afford education or healthcare. Here's what really makes the US different: most countries don't have America's massive wealth gaps. That's the real cause.
        Manuel_D 4y ago
        Most European countries do share similar demographic trends relative to the US as Germany. In fact Germany's enrollment rates are above average. Again, wealth gaps don't affect the prices of goods. The cost of cars, cell phones, and plenty of other things are largely the same between the US and other developed countries. Housing in the US is plenty cheap outside desirable metros. And Europe similarly has expensive housing in desirable metros. Housing is expensive in Stockholm, the better parts of London, etc.
Tangurena2 4y ago
When working on my 2nd bachelors, this subject came up in some of our sociology courses. The older people remembered exactly when this changed: the 1973 Oil Embargo. For them, this was the time when our mothers had to get a wage-paying job outside the home. Some remembered it as "that's when I had to start pumping my own gas". The people involved were all upper-middle class. My dad was an engineer (in the oil business) and the attire, cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption of Mad Men was reasonably close to my memories. While many folks would consider factory workers are working class, they were unionized and I'd consider them middle class. Max income tax bracket in the 70s was 70%. This prevented the income disparity that we've seen since the 1980s. https://taxfoundation.org/historical-income-tax-rates-brackets/ https://taxfoundation.org/historical-income-tax-rates-bracke...

The 70s when one earner (even a factory worker) could still afford a house and kids and wealth gaps were way smaller? Better times for sure unless you're very rich.

Manuel_D 4y ago

Being able to afford a house back in the 1970s was less due to factory jobs paying better, and more due to houses being a lot cheaper. Some goods, like computing information systems, have gotten a lot cheaper. Other goods, chiefly housing, education, and healthcare have gotten a lot more expensive. And it's not any easy path to making the latter less expensive: land is finite, a there's a much bigger proportion of people entering college than in the 1970s, and the population distribution is skewing older.

tchaffee 4y ago
You're forgetting that increases in productivity used to be partially shared with the middle class who enjoyed a rising standard of life as a result. Around that time it changed with the rich keeping all those profits to themselves. If middle class salaries had kept up, houses and education would be affordable.
- Manuel_D 4y ago
  Higher salaries don't solve shortages. If there's 200 buyers for 150 homes, higher salaries would just let those buyer make larger bids. In order to let the poorest 50 people get homes, we need 50 more homes.
  - int_19h 4y ago
    There are dozens of vacant homes in US for each homeless person. The national vacancy rate is something like 10%.
    - Manuel_D 4y ago
      In the US as a whole, sure. But the housing affordability issues aren't across the whole US: it's in specific metros. Houses in Nebraska don't solve the affordability crisis in San Francisco. Furthermore, people aren't exactly keen on letting homeless people live in their property for free. Hotels in my city experimented with this: they got small checks for housing homeless people during COVID, when lockdown massacred the hospitality market. It was a complete disaster: the rooms were trashed and they lost more money than they received from the government.
      - tchaffee 4y ago
        Housing affordability issues are indeed across the whole US if you include local wage rates in the equation. The middle class simply can no longer afford the same housing as they could on a single earner wage as they could when tax rates on the rich were 70%. A lot of the problem is hedge funds grabbing up huge numbers of houses across the country and then jacking up the rents using collusion through software. At a 70٪ tax rate that money to grab up so many properties wouldn't even be there. https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/10/company-that-makes-rent-setting-software-for-landlords-sued-for-collusion/ https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/10/company-that-mak...
  - tchaffee 4y ago
    Good thing there isn't a housing shortage. And most countries easily manage to pay for education and healthcare.
    - Manuel_D 4y ago
      There is indeed a housing shortage, or more specifically shortages in desirable metros. American cities are refusing to build denser residencies, driving up the cost of housing. Most countries aren't America. Germany, as a point of comparison, had half the share of it's population enrolled in university. Part of this is because of age distribution: America is younger and has more college age people. Also, about 50% of German high schoolers go on to university as compared to 70% of Americans. People keep pointing to the European education system, but my retort is that following Europe's example would entail reducing enrollment considerably. Healthcare is indeed one place where administrative changes could solve things. Most European countries, along with Japan and South Korea, work by giving citizens a stipend to spend on a healthcare plan from a marketplace of providers (either directly, or indirectly through subsidizing plans). This is largely what Romney was proposing in 2012, but that effort fizzled out. Unfortunately, the one party in America in favor of healthcare reform seems to be laser focused on a fully nationalized healthcare to the exclusion of anything else.
      - tchaffee 4y ago
        A "housing shortage in desirable metros" is moving the goal posts. The claim was that unaffordable housing can only be attributed to a shortage and has nothing to do with massively increased wealth gaps nor the shrinking middle class. "Most countries aren't America" is just an excuse. Most European countries aren't Germany. So by that reasoning most European countries can't afford education or healthcare. Here's what really makes the US different: most countries don't have America's massive wealth gaps. That's the real cause.
        Manuel_D 4y ago
        Most European countries do share similar demographic trends relative to the US as Germany. In fact Germany's enrollment rates are above average. Again, wealth gaps don't affect the prices of goods. The cost of cars, cell phones, and plenty of other things are largely the same between the US and other developed countries. Housing in the US is plenty cheap outside desirable metros. And Europe similarly has expensive housing in desirable metros. Housing is expensive in Stockholm, the better parts of London, etc.

Tangurena2 4y ago

When working on my 2nd bachelors, this subject came up in some of our sociology courses. The older people remembered exactly when this changed: the 1973 Oil Embargo. For them, this was the time when our mothers had to get a wage-paying job outside the home. Some remembered it as "that's when I had to start pumping my own gas". The people involved were all upper-middle class. My dad was an engineer (in the oil business) and the attire, cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption of Mad Men was reasonably close to my memories. While many folks would consider factory workers are working class, they were unionized and I'd consider them middle class. Max income tax bracket in the 70s was 70%. This prevented the income disparity that we've seen since the 1980s. https://taxfoundation.org/historical-income-tax-rates-brackets/ https://taxfoundation.org/historical-income-tax-rates-bracke...