I'd like a source for temporal correlations. Their models definitely have enough data to differentiate between the following two hypothetical predictions (albei

I'd like a source for temporal correlations. Their models definitely have enough data to differentiate between the following two hypothetical predictions (albeit, predictions are chaotic, but the ability to predict this sort of thing is no worse than the other predictions), but I have no way to parse the result to obtain them: Suppose the hourly forecast has 50% chance of precipitation each hour for two hours. In addition to the points you raise about how to interpret 50% at any moment in time, how are we supposed to know if this means either of the following (or something else): 1. A big storm is passing near a point for those 2 hours, and the only question is whether it passes over it or to the side. I.e., both hours have rain or both don't. 2. A small storm is definitely passing over that point, and the only question is when it will arrive. You either have rain in the first hour or the second but not both or neither.