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> Adding another nail to the coffin claiming Russia blew up their own pipeline. Or not. Blowing up NS1 to pressure Germany to allow NS2 to open wouldn't be inc

by Zanfa 4y ago

> Adding another nail to the coffin claiming Russia blew up their own pipeline. Or not. Blowing up NS1 to pressure Germany to allow NS2 to open wouldn't be inconceivable, while also pushing up the price of gas through other pipelines. It's risky and stupid, but that also describes most of what Russia's been doing the last 9 months.

labcomputer 4y ago
But it doesn’t make any sense. Like, at all. Implicit in the threat of “do what we say, or we turn the gas off” is “and we’ll let you keep the gas if you do”. Russia’s threats become completely empty and meaningless if the blackmailees know that the blackmailer can’t turn the gas back on. The game theory becomes totally boring when both outcomes are “Europe doesn’t have gas”. The obvious strategy becomes “just support Ukraine because there is no penalty for doing so”. Which is the opposite of what Russia wants. It also forces Europe to find other gas sources… after which, any future attempt to use gas for blackmail is less effective. Again, opposite of Russia’s interests. Putin may be stupid, but he’s not that stupid.
- Zanfa 4y ago
  > Russia’s threats become completely empty and meaningless if the blackmailees know that the blackmailer can’t turn the gas back on. Empty threats are Russia's MO and have been for literal decades now. They've threatened Europe with nukes so many times that it doesn't even make the news anymore when it happens. Also, NS1 was not the only operational pipeline and it would have been a massive win for Russia if Germany had flipped their decision on NS2 to ensure their own gas supply. And clearly if they're working on NS1 now, it wasn't damaged beyond repair. > Putin may be stupid, but he’s not that stupid. I don't know, it sure looks like it. Most of his recent actions seem to be best explained as short-term fixes to a massive strategic blunder. It's only human to try to read into things and assume there must be some greater plan to his moves.
  - labcomputer 4y ago
    > Empty threats are Russia's MO and have been for literal decades now. They've threatened Europe with nukes so many times that it doesn't even make the news anymore when it happens. And would those threats be more or less credible if Russia unilaterally destroyed all their own nukes (and proved that they had done so)? > Most of his recent actions seem to be best explained as short-term fixes to a massive strategic blunder. Uh huh. And how does this help him, exactly? Putin must be the dumbest person to ever play eleventy-seven degree chess with such skill.
- dragonwriter 4y ago
  The threat in blowing up NS isn't “do what we want or we don't turn our gas back on”, its “do what we want or we blow up Baltic Pipe”. > It also forces Europe to find other gas sources… That was forced a while ago, the threat here is against those other sources.

by Zanfa 4y ago

labcomputer 4y ago

But it doesn’t make any sense. Like, at all. Implicit in the threat of “do what we say, or we turn the gas off” is “and we’ll let you keep the gas if you do”. Russia’s threats become completely empty and meaningless if the blackmailees know that the blackmailer can’t turn the gas back on. The game theory becomes totally boring when both outcomes are “Europe doesn’t have gas”. The obvious strategy becomes “just support Ukraine because there is no penalty for doing so”. Which is the opposite of what Russia wants. It also forces Europe to find other gas sources… after which, any future attempt to use gas for blackmail is less effective. Again, opposite of Russia’s interests. Putin may be stupid, but he’s not that stupid.

Zanfa 4y ago
> Russia’s threats become completely empty and meaningless if the blackmailees know that the blackmailer can’t turn the gas back on. Empty threats are Russia's MO and have been for literal decades now. They've threatened Europe with nukes so many times that it doesn't even make the news anymore when it happens. Also, NS1 was not the only operational pipeline and it would have been a massive win for Russia if Germany had flipped their decision on NS2 to ensure their own gas supply. And clearly if they're working on NS1 now, it wasn't damaged beyond repair. > Putin may be stupid, but he’s not that stupid. I don't know, it sure looks like it. Most of his recent actions seem to be best explained as short-term fixes to a massive strategic blunder. It's only human to try to read into things and assume there must be some greater plan to his moves.
- labcomputer 4y ago
  > Empty threats are Russia's MO and have been for literal decades now. They've threatened Europe with nukes so many times that it doesn't even make the news anymore when it happens. And would those threats be more or less credible if Russia unilaterally destroyed all their own nukes (and proved that they had done so)? > Most of his recent actions seem to be best explained as short-term fixes to a massive strategic blunder. Uh huh. And how does this help him, exactly? Putin must be the dumbest person to ever play eleventy-seven degree chess with such skill.
dragonwriter 4y ago
The threat in blowing up NS isn't “do what we want or we don't turn our gas back on”, its “do what we want or we blow up Baltic Pipe”. > It also forces Europe to find other gas sources… That was forced a while ago, the threat here is against those other sources.