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There are easy solutions available right now but they cost money. I don't want to assume you are the same but often people that use key phrases like "myth of gl
by xenadu02 4y ago
There are easy solutions available right now but they cost money. I don't want to assume you are the same but often people that use key phrases like "myth of global overpopulation" and "abortion on demand" are STRONGLY against any of those solutions.
The largest factor encouraging people not to have children (preventatively or abortively) is money. Taking time off work is akin to dropping down below poverty level and childcare sometimes makes working a net negative financially. Housing, healthcare, schooling... it all traces back to money. Legally you're supposed to have your position at work protected but in most states you have to burn your vacation time and in practice you're penalized for being out (enforcement requires you sue your employer which is not easy and makes finding future employment difficult as the lawsuit shows up on "background" checks marking you as a "problem".)
Free universal childcare, free universal child healthcare, legally-mandated accommodations with government enforcement for childbirth (including both work and schooling) would massively change the equation for many people who currently choose not to have kids. This must be accompanied by programs to train people to operate daycare centers, graduate more pediatricians, and so on.
I also need to clarify: I don't mean "means-tested" programs like Medicaid where taking a job disqualifies you from the program or a childcare program where means-testing excludes most people. Or "welfare" programs that require you file 12 TPS forms every 2 months or they kick you out. I mean low-hassle automatic "proof of citizenship or legal residency = automatically approved, no questions asked".
And by "legal accommodations" I mean any student wanting to give birth gets an automatic 5 year sabbatical with no penalties from high school, university, grants, post-doc programs, residency programs, etc. The government must handle the reporting, auditing, and enforcement so it doesn't become a "legally yeah but in practice no" like we have today.
If those solutions seem complicated the simpler route is a large increase in wages plus import controls/taxes or other measures to penalize offshoring to avoid pro-family wages. Most people don't make enough that even a 100% refundable tax credit would make up the gap but it might help.
In any case these are all large interventions with costs. People are often reluctant to pay those costs (in taxes or higher prices for goods).
I'll admit using government to restrict personal freedom (banning contraceptives/abortion, banning proper sex education, etc) is definitely cheaper, though I find that morally objectionable. In practice it isn't all that effective either.
edit: having a developed economy is technically the primary driver of lower birth rates but only up to a point (5-8 down to 2-3). When people feel financially secure and secure in their career they tend to average out to replacement rate (give or take). The calculus for a subsistence farmer is quite different from anyone likely reading HN.
- bloaf 4y agoThis is a popular take, but I'm not convinced. The world has counterexamples to both your claims and the "overpopulation/abortion" claims made by conservatives. Scandinavia has very strong social programs for new parents (as well as "abortion on demand"), but only slightly higher fertility rates than Russia (which has less generous parental benefits, but fewer abortions than Scandinavia). And indeed, the fertility rate in the USA are in the same ballpark, despite the US having no parental benefits. (Scandinavian fertility is 1.8-1.9, Russian fertility is 1.7-1.8, USA fertility is 1.8-1.9, all in 2021 numbers from Gapminder) (Scandinavian abortion rates are generally above 15%, Russia is ~12%, and USA is ~11%) Edit: Data caveats there are some sources claiming russia's abortion rate is >50%, but they seem to be confusing the abortion rate with the abortion ratio. Also, the abortion rate in Russia has evidently undergone a precipitous decline since the 90s, so the abortion rate can look much different if you get/use a source that is even a few years old.
- RestlessMind 4y ago> Free universal childcare, free universal child healthcare, legally-mandated accommodations with government enforcement for childbirth ... would massively change the equation Norway and Finland have all of that and yet their birth rates are 1.48 and 1.37. Germany, Belgium and Netherlands too have those goodies and yet have a birthrate around 1.55. So your premise seems faulty.