7 ms·

So what happens when the whole world becomes developed? Immigration as a solution to population decline seems like a temporary fix.

dropit_sphere 4y ago
https://twitter.com/extradeadjcb/status/1609972258725892097 https://twitter.com/extradeadjcb/status/1609972258725892097
- MonkeyMalarky 4y ago
  Scrolling down a bit, I see this reply: >If say, blue deep state dysfunction keeps getting worse, and it ends up couped by reds who purge & reform the federal government along the lines of less handouts, more guns, and set up the system so that political power of unproductive classes is minimized, woke may just die out. Wow.
  - kibwen 4y ago
    First day on Twitter?
- Dig1t 4y ago
  >It's not at all clear that biological agelessness is impossible. I have heard this before, I kind of think that there is a nontrivial percentage of people that hope or believe that we will solve aging within their lifetime and that having kids isn’t necessary.
ShredKazoo 4y ago
Africa is projected to grow rapidly in population until the end of the century. If developed countries can assimilate large numbers of African immigrants peacefully and productively, that could represent a path forward for the planet. India's population also continues to explode. We've been very successful assimilating Indian immigrants in the US. This blog post is a great read on the importance of institutions and how assimilation has succeeded with past immigrant waves: https://anowrasteh.substack.com/p/review-of-the-culture-transplant-184 https://anowrasteh.substack.com/p/review-of-the-culture-tran... The tl;dr is that in principle, it's possible to imagine a South Korea in the year 2100 which is 80% descended from African immigrants and functions more or less the same way it does today. The immigrants just have to come at a slow enough rate that they adopt to the local way of doing things instead of overwhelming it. Probably would work best with a points-based immigration system similar to what Canada has. Also getting the host country to accept the new arrivals would also be an important challenge. In my opinion, more countries should follow France's lead and establish a foreign legion, so even right-wingers have to acknowledge that immigrants are helping the country out.
- verdenti 4y ago
  [dead]
- onepointsixC 4y ago
  >Africa is projected to grow rapidly in population until the end of the century. If developed countries can assimilate large numbers of African immigrants peacefully and productively, that could represent a path forward for the planet. I don't see any reason why anyone should take those projections seriously. Countries went from booms to baby busts in the span of few decades.
- mbustamanter 4y ago
  Latest UN projection was adjusted so that by the end of century they would 100 million less people, again from a downward adjustment three years ago. They will experience a modernization unlike the world has ever seen thanks to globalization, and there is no reason to believe they will have that many people as a consequence of the decline in fertility rates (caused by education, more wealth, etc.).
verdenti 4y ago
[dead]
mschuster91 4y ago
> So what happens when the whole world becomes developed? The criteria for what makes a country "developed" will shift: at the moment, it's stuff like 24/7 reliable electricity and communications grids, fresh water and sewage grids, transportation infrastructure, access to healthcare, affordable quality housing and food. As a result of that being available, particularly healthcare, food and water, reproduction rates will fall as you don't need six children to hope one makes it to an old enough age to be a caregiver. We're seeing this pattern already with first and second generation migrants from countries with high reproduction rates. > Immigration as a solution to population decline seems like a temporary fix. It doesn't need to be more then a temporary fix: those countries who are rich at the moment will still be rich in the future and continue to invent stuff - the new marker for "developed" may then be "basic labor is done by robots", so there won't be any more need for more immigration. The crucial issue is that Western societies are hard-wired on judging people by their employment - my fear is that in a world with declining employment rates, we'll end up with a small caste of ultra rich elites, and a mob of people who may enjoy what we call a "high standard of living" in our standards, but still fighting for status aka the few jobs that will exist, and there will be lots of people blaming immigrants again.

dropit_sphere 4y ago

https://twitter.com/extradeadjcb/status/1609972258725892097 https://twitter.com/extradeadjcb/status/1609972258725892097

MonkeyMalarky 4y ago
Scrolling down a bit, I see this reply: >If say, blue deep state dysfunction keeps getting worse, and it ends up couped by reds who purge & reform the federal government along the lines of less handouts, more guns, and set up the system so that political power of unproductive classes is minimized, woke may just die out. Wow.
- kibwen 4y ago
  First day on Twitter?
Dig1t 4y ago
>It's not at all clear that biological agelessness is impossible. I have heard this before, I kind of think that there is a nontrivial percentage of people that hope or believe that we will solve aging within their lifetime and that having kids isn’t necessary.

ShredKazoo 4y ago

Africa is projected to grow rapidly in population until the end of the century. If developed countries can assimilate large numbers of African immigrants peacefully and productively, that could represent a path forward for the planet. India's population also continues to explode. We've been very successful assimilating Indian immigrants in the US. This blog post is a great read on the importance of institutions and how assimilation has succeeded with past immigrant waves: https://anowrasteh.substack.com/p/review-of-the-culture-transplant-184 https://anowrasteh.substack.com/p/review-of-the-culture-tran... The tl;dr is that in principle, it's possible to imagine a South Korea in the year 2100 which is 80% descended from African immigrants and functions more or less the same way it does today. The immigrants just have to come at a slow enough rate that they adopt to the local way of doing things instead of overwhelming it. Probably would work best with a points-based immigration system similar to what Canada has. Also getting the host country to accept the new arrivals would also be an important challenge. In my opinion, more countries should follow France's lead and establish a foreign legion, so even right-wingers have to acknowledge that immigrants are helping the country out.

verdenti 4y ago
[dead]
onepointsixC 4y ago
>Africa is projected to grow rapidly in population until the end of the century. If developed countries can assimilate large numbers of African immigrants peacefully and productively, that could represent a path forward for the planet. I don't see any reason why anyone should take those projections seriously. Countries went from booms to baby busts in the span of few decades.
mbustamanter 4y ago
Latest UN projection was adjusted so that by the end of century they would 100 million less people, again from a downward adjustment three years ago. They will experience a modernization unlike the world has ever seen thanks to globalization, and there is no reason to believe they will have that many people as a consequence of the decline in fertility rates (caused by education, more wealth, etc.).

verdenti 4y ago

[dead]

mschuster91 4y ago

> So what happens when the whole world becomes developed? The criteria for what makes a country "developed" will shift: at the moment, it's stuff like 24/7 reliable electricity and communications grids, fresh water and sewage grids, transportation infrastructure, access to healthcare, affordable quality housing and food. As a result of that being available, particularly healthcare, food and water, reproduction rates will fall as you don't need six children to hope one makes it to an old enough age to be a caregiver. We're seeing this pattern already with first and second generation migrants from countries with high reproduction rates. > Immigration as a solution to population decline seems like a temporary fix. It doesn't need to be more then a temporary fix: those countries who are rich at the moment will still be rich in the future and continue to invent stuff - the new marker for "developed" may then be "basic labor is done by robots", so there won't be any more need for more immigration. The crucial issue is that Western societies are hard-wired on judging people by their employment - my fear is that in a world with declining employment rates, we'll end up with a small caste of ultra rich elites, and a mob of people who may enjoy what we call a "high standard of living" in our standards, but still fighting for status aka the few jobs that will exist, and there will be lots of people blaming immigrants again.