4 ms·

If you were to make an ad like that today, what would your predictions be?

by petilon 4y ago

entwife 4y ago
Vaccines that cure cancer.
- uejfiweun 4y ago
  Wow, how exactly would such a thing be possible?
stolenmerch 4y ago
In 1993 it was all about instant telecommunication coming in the future, which seemed like crazy scifi at the time. Now I think the next horizon is instant simulation. In 30 years, we'll be able to simulate just about anything we want. Instant feature film prompted by your own ideas? You will. Talking to your dead grandma? You will. Assistants that go to work for you? You will. And the company that will bring it to you is AT&T, probably.
- missedthecue 4y ago
  "simulate just about anything we want. Instant feature film prompted by your own ideas" I haven't often fantasized about having a tool like this when trying to explain abstract or arcane concepts. How amazing would that be.
janalsncm 4y ago
This is a great question for its own Ask HN. It feels like we are on the brink of some great breakthroughs outside of pure software. Delivery robots are here but will become more available. Ditto with self-driving cars. mRNA vaccines are now proven to work. Genetic sequencing is very affordable. Treatments customized to your DNA will become common. Real-time footage of earth will be available just like Google Earth is now. Along with ubiquitous facial recognition, there will be major implications on privacy and national security.
Eisenstein 4y ago
My prediction for the future of personal technology (provided we don't run out of cheap non-renewables beforehand and/or don't destroy ourselves in any number of plausible scenarios) would be on-demand energy generation in a compact solid-state or completely enclosed device. Some sort of harnessing of one of the primary forces converted to electromagnetic energy for consistent, convenient, non-explody, on-demand power for our bionic limbs and ad-supported Meta-eyes and A.I. powered babysitting robots.
petilon 4y ago
I think that in 30 years, humans will not work. AI will replace software developers, doctors, lawyers, accountants, finance, etc. Robots will replace surgeons, gardeners, cooks, cleaners, construction workers, manufacturing workers, etc. All humans will live be provided Universal Basic Income. Housing, food, clothes etc. will all be made by robots and given to humans for free. The only jobs for humans will be dating, procreation, taking care of their offsprings (with help from robots), exercise and recreation.
elsonrodriguez 4y ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJg02ivYzSs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJg02ivYzSs
jasonwatkinspdx 4y ago
Conversational interfaces. I don't think GPT is taking us to the singularity any time soon, but I do think it's pretty strong evidence we can go a lot further with conversational interfaces.
- deathanatos 4y ago
  … yeah, I gotta be pretty bearish on that one. The basic decision tree interfaces of today can't even handle the most basic of needs. My last conversation, roughly: [some initial menu nav omit] AI: I can look up your order. What is your phone number? Me: XXX-XXX-XXXX AI: I'm sorry, I don't have an order under that number. (This is a lie.) The conversation continues. AI: Would you like to look up another order? Me: Can I look up by name? AI: Yes, I can look up by number. What is the number? Great job. Me: Beetlejuice. AI: I'm sorry, I didn't understand that. Me: Beetlejuice. AI: I'm sorry, I didn't understand that. Me: Beetlejuice. AI: I'm having trouble understanding you. Let me get a human on the line. Even if an AI could understand, it's still got to have the programming to look up orders, e.g., by that new attribute, here, name. Or… is the AI writing SQL, too? Enter Bobby Tables. My need isn't much more than a basic decision tree, either; that level of "conversation" is sufficient / GPT isn't necessary. But … the decision tree, once it has parsed a human sentence into a correct action … has to actually be able to correctly take that action. (And, e.g., not lie.) Of course, one I get a human on the line, I come to find out the health provider — whose AI I was having to first grovel to — … did have the order, and had just effectively perma-ignored it, without communicating that. They had blackholed my order "because" the health insurer had declined the service … despite the requested service being allegedly available for free to all Americans. The larger pattern here is that this is the sort of garbage tier service that it seems every industry in the economy is rife with these days, and is what generates probably 105% of my support calls. And I am tired of every support call service telling me "we are experiencing above average call volume". It is mathematically impossible for the call volume to always be above average. Also, your call volume is "above average" as a result of playing stupid games, and then winning stupid prizes, like the above. There were two alternate universes: 1. the insurer did their job -> problem solved, no support call. 2. the insurer failed to do their job -> you contact the customer & relay the problem -> no support call. But, again, we go for garbage-tier-economy answer of "just ignore the problem?" "Guaranteed two day shipping" took 8 days. The tracking number tells me the "package is out for delivery, delivery by 5pm" … at 8pm. Mass transit board tells me the 3:00pm train is delayed by 20 minutes. At 4:00pm. The list goes on and on. If you want to resolve anything, talking to a conversational AI is not going to cut it. As another hilarious example, I was talking to a Google Home. I gave it one query, and the device answered in a feminine voice. I give it the next query, … and it responds with a masculine voice? I ask it what happened there, and of course it can't parse that, and for as much "intelligence" as what people ascribe to these things, it's lost by the third exchange. (The owners had some explanation. That's not the point.)

If you were to make an ad like that today, what would your predictions be?

entwife 4y ago

Vaccines that cure cancer.

uejfiweun 4y ago
Wow, how exactly would such a thing be possible?

stolenmerch 4y ago

In 1993 it was all about instant telecommunication coming in the future, which seemed like crazy scifi at the time. Now I think the next horizon is instant simulation. In 30 years, we'll be able to simulate just about anything we want. Instant feature film prompted by your own ideas? You will. Talking to your dead grandma? You will. Assistants that go to work for you? You will. And the company that will bring it to you is AT&T, probably.

missedthecue 4y ago
"simulate just about anything we want. Instant feature film prompted by your own ideas" I haven't often fantasized about having a tool like this when trying to explain abstract or arcane concepts. How amazing would that be.

janalsncm 4y ago

This is a great question for its own Ask HN. It feels like we are on the brink of some great breakthroughs outside of pure software. Delivery robots are here but will become more available. Ditto with self-driving cars. mRNA vaccines are now proven to work. Genetic sequencing is very affordable. Treatments customized to your DNA will become common. Real-time footage of earth will be available just like Google Earth is now. Along with ubiquitous facial recognition, there will be major implications on privacy and national security.

Eisenstein 4y ago

My prediction for the future of personal technology (provided we don't run out of cheap non-renewables beforehand and/or don't destroy ourselves in any number of plausible scenarios) would be on-demand energy generation in a compact solid-state or completely enclosed device. Some sort of harnessing of one of the primary forces converted to electromagnetic energy for consistent, convenient, non-explody, on-demand power for our bionic limbs and ad-supported Meta-eyes and A.I. powered babysitting robots.

petilon 4y ago

I think that in 30 years, humans will not work. AI will replace software developers, doctors, lawyers, accountants, finance, etc. Robots will replace surgeons, gardeners, cooks, cleaners, construction workers, manufacturing workers, etc. All humans will live be provided Universal Basic Income. Housing, food, clothes etc. will all be made by robots and given to humans for free. The only jobs for humans will be dating, procreation, taking care of their offsprings (with help from robots), exercise and recreation.

elsonrodriguez 4y ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJg02ivYzSs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJg02ivYzSs

jasonwatkinspdx 4y ago

Conversational interfaces. I don't think GPT is taking us to the singularity any time soon, but I do think it's pretty strong evidence we can go a lot further with conversational interfaces.

deathanatos 4y ago
… yeah, I gotta be pretty bearish on that one. The basic decision tree interfaces of today can't even handle the most basic of needs. My last conversation, roughly: [some initial menu nav omit] AI: I can look up your order. What is your phone number? Me: XXX-XXX-XXXX AI: I'm sorry, I don't have an order under that number. (This is a lie.) The conversation continues. AI: Would you like to look up another order? Me: Can I look up by name? AI: Yes, I can look up by number. What is the number? Great job. Me: Beetlejuice. AI: I'm sorry, I didn't understand that. Me: Beetlejuice. AI: I'm sorry, I didn't understand that. Me: Beetlejuice. AI: I'm having trouble understanding you. Let me get a human on the line. Even if an AI could understand, it's still got to have the programming to look up orders, e.g., by that new attribute, here, name. Or… is the AI writing SQL, too? Enter Bobby Tables. My need isn't much more than a basic decision tree, either; that level of "conversation" is sufficient / GPT isn't necessary. But … the decision tree, once it has parsed a human sentence into a correct action … has to actually be able to correctly take that action. (And, e.g., not lie.) Of course, one I get a human on the line, I come to find out the health provider — whose AI I was having to first grovel to — … did have the order, and had just effectively perma-ignored it, without communicating that. They had blackholed my order "because" the health insurer had declined the service … despite the requested service being allegedly available for free to all Americans. The larger pattern here is that this is the sort of garbage tier service that it seems every industry in the economy is rife with these days, and is what generates probably 105% of my support calls. And I am tired of every support call service telling me "we are experiencing above average call volume". It is mathematically impossible for the call volume to always be above average. Also, your call volume is "above average" as a result of playing stupid games, and then winning stupid prizes, like the above. There were two alternate universes: 1. the insurer did their job -> problem solved, no support call. 2. the insurer failed to do their job -> you contact the customer & relay the problem -> no support call. But, again, we go for garbage-tier-economy answer of "just ignore the problem?" "Guaranteed two day shipping" took 8 days. The tracking number tells me the "package is out for delivery, delivery by 5pm" … at 8pm. Mass transit board tells me the 3:00pm train is delayed by 20 minutes. At 4:00pm. The list goes on and on. If you want to resolve anything, talking to a conversational AI is not going to cut it. As another hilarious example, I was talking to a Google Home. I gave it one query, and the device answered in a feminine voice. I give it the next query, … and it responds with a masculine voice? I ask it what happened there, and of course it can't parse that, and for as much "intelligence" as what people ascribe to these things, it's lost by the third exchange. (The owners had some explanation. That's not the point.)