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It very nearly was though? I guess we were using the word conquer differently and your usage is probably the more accurate one. Is was thinking of occupying th
by danbruc 4y ago
It very nearly was though?
I guess we were using the word conquer differently and your usage is probably the more accurate one. Is was thinking of occupying the country and controlling it with force as opposed to marching to Kyiv and overthrowing the government. So I meant that occupying Ukraine with 200,000 soldiers was unrealistic and nothing that I think Putin would attempt. For overthrowing the government on the other hand this seems not to unreasonable and, as you point out, this might actually have been a close call.
He also stated that his aim was to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine - isn't that asserting control over the country?
My interpretation is that demilitarization means going against increasingly stronger ties to NATO including weapon sales and denazification means going against increasing anti-Russian sentiments. No judgment about the validity of those points implied, I just think it is much more useful to find a interpretation that makes sense in the greater context than ignoring it as incoherent rumbling and making fun of it because Selenskyj is a jew.
And I would agree, it is a form of control. I think he really wants Ukraine not in NATO, which is a kind of control, and because he could not get this any other way, he eventually tried to get there by trying to overthrow the government with force. But I am a bit wary of using very general terms like control, every international agreement is a form of control, albeit one where the involved parties agree.
So we were probably again using the word control somewhat differently, you more like some control, I more like full control. And, as I said, I think he wants some control but not full control, he wants Ukraine outside of NATO but I don't think he wants Ukraine a part of Russia.
I know this is probably not your intent, but this is the exact line all the pro-Russia propaganda guys use - Putin is an uwu smol bean who just feels very threatend and scared.
I mean I am certainly not a pro-Russia propaganda guy, but I still think that this explanation is the most likely one. I don't know what exactly the pro-Russia propaganda guy version looks like and I would certainly not agree with all of it, for example, as you mentioned, nobody forced the eastern NATO members into NATO, but I consider the general idea of Russia being afraid of NATO expansion and this eventually leading to the war as the most likely explanation. Not at last because there is no credible alternative explanation with reasonable evidence for it.
- smcl 4y agoAh I'm sorry man, it really was honestly not my intent to cast you as some Putin shill but I guess it is bound to appear that way regardless of whether I included the disclaimer :) But I didn't include it flippantly, there was a reason behind why I raised this, I just didn't articulate it very well. The reason I mentioned it is that I've seen this line so many times in the context of these pro-Putin/Z guys and the stuff they copy-paste every time that it nearly lost all meaning to me - it's just line noise that is the same as all the other Putin propaganda. The only way it could be elevated beyond that is if it was validated by Russia also invading Finland (which they definitely won't ... I hope). Because that right there is very real NATO expansion on Russia's doorstep, a massive new NATO border and two very militarily-capable nations joining, in Putin's eyes, an organization hellbent on your destruction. Remember that Ukraine's accession was certainly not guaranteed prior to 2014, was definitely not going to happen while Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimea were occupied (since that would mean NATO was suddenly and willingly at war with Russia) and is now a near-certainty if Ukraine succeed in driving Russia out. So it just seems so self-defeating - if the intent is to reduce conflict with NATO and discourage any countries from joining then why do something that demonstrates the value of being a NATO member in a country that was not in the position to become a NATO member? I cannot stress enough how much of a profoundly bone-headed own goal it is, if that was the intent. Sorry I'm maybe just repeating myself at this point. But it just seems more insane a reason to me than a quick patriotic land-grab or some "regime change" does, regardless of what we anyone in the Kremlin says.
- danbruc 4y agoNo worries, I got your disclaimer. Unfortunately I have no more time for a proper reply, at least not today.