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Fundamentally, Putin wants to Make Russia Great Again--essentially, to reestablish Russia as a regional hegemon. He particularly seems incensed that even Russop

Fundamentally, Putin wants to Make Russia Great Again--essentially, to reestablish Russia as a regional hegemon. He particularly seems incensed that even Russophile Ukrainians would rather be aligned to the West than to Russia were they forced to choose. The countries Russia seeks to assert hegemony over don't particularly want to be a part of that hegemony (even in Belarus!), and Russia doesn't have much in the way of carrots to offer those countries. Offering a diplomatic status that even freezes the status quo as de facto recognition only serves to legitimize Russia's use of invasion to get what it wants--note that this is the third war this century where Russia is invading another country to do this (the prior two being the Russia-Georgia war in 2008, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014).

danbruc 4y ago
[...] to reestablish Russia as a regional hegemon [...] Without any implications whether I agree or not and ignoring the means used in case this is what Russia wants and does, purely looking at the supposed goal - is this a bad goal?
- mannerheim 4y ago
  Their regional hegemony has only every been possible with the use of force. Eventually Russians will have to come to terms with why none of their European neighbours like them.
  - danbruc 4y ago
    I said ignoring the means used, is the goal in itself a good one or a bad one? Correct me if I am wrong, but I understood you as saying that Russia wanting to become a reginal hegemon is bad, and I want to understand if this is bad because of the goal or because of the means.
    - mannerheim 4y ago
      Russia could only become a 'regional hegemon' via two routes: 1. By convincing its neighbours to allow it to be so 2. By forcing its neighbours to accept it as such Russia's neighbours were not going to allow the former to happen for good reason, and Russia found its possible hegemony swallowed up as its former colonies joined the EU. Ukraine is just another one of these. Carrot didn't work, so the stick became the only possibility for achieving the same goal. But the carrot never would have worked anyway. Ukrainians toppled Yanukovich precisely because Putin had him withdraw from the EU accession process. The EU has been the only path to prosperity for young people in Eastern Europe; with Russia lied only poverty. So Russia not only didn't have anything to offer the countries it wished to become a hegemon of, it was also despised by the same countries because they had precisely lived under Russian hegemony within living memory. The goal was bad because the means they are using were the only possible means. Once Ukraine joined the EU, it would have been lost to Russian hegemony forever.
      - danbruc 4y ago
        So in short, Russia becoming a local hegemon is fine in principle, there is just no way this will happen by any acceptable means, correct? But now I don't actually know why I went down this thread, I don't think Putin believes he should and can become a local hegemon.
        mannerheim 4y ago
        > So in short, Russia becoming a local hegemon is fine in principle As an outside observer, perhaps, but I suspect for those in Eastern Europe who lived under Russian hegemony in living memory, even this would be undesirable. > But now I don't actually know why I went down this thread, I don't think Putin believes he should and can become a local hegemon. It is a matter of speculation whether Putin actually believes in expanding Russia and its sphere of influence, or merely acts so, but it hardly matters if that's the way he's acting.
        danbruc 4y ago
        As an outside observer, perhaps, but I suspect for those in Eastern Europe who lived under Russian hegemony in living memory, even this would be undesirable. Cuba probably does not feel any better about the US hegemony, they are getting punished for no good reasons since 60 years. It is a matter of speculation whether Putin actually believes in expanding Russia and its sphere of influence, or merely acts so, but it hardly matters if that's the way he's acting. I think this makes a big difference because the possible solutions for this conflict will be very different.

danbruc 4y ago

[...] to reestablish Russia as a regional hegemon [...] Without any implications whether I agree or not and ignoring the means used in case this is what Russia wants and does, purely looking at the supposed goal - is this a bad goal?

mannerheim 4y ago
Their regional hegemony has only every been possible with the use of force. Eventually Russians will have to come to terms with why none of their European neighbours like them.
- danbruc 4y ago
  I said ignoring the means used, is the goal in itself a good one or a bad one? Correct me if I am wrong, but I understood you as saying that Russia wanting to become a reginal hegemon is bad, and I want to understand if this is bad because of the goal or because of the means.
  - mannerheim 4y ago
    Russia could only become a 'regional hegemon' via two routes: 1. By convincing its neighbours to allow it to be so 2. By forcing its neighbours to accept it as such Russia's neighbours were not going to allow the former to happen for good reason, and Russia found its possible hegemony swallowed up as its former colonies joined the EU. Ukraine is just another one of these. Carrot didn't work, so the stick became the only possibility for achieving the same goal. But the carrot never would have worked anyway. Ukrainians toppled Yanukovich precisely because Putin had him withdraw from the EU accession process. The EU has been the only path to prosperity for young people in Eastern Europe; with Russia lied only poverty. So Russia not only didn't have anything to offer the countries it wished to become a hegemon of, it was also despised by the same countries because they had precisely lived under Russian hegemony within living memory. The goal was bad because the means they are using were the only possible means. Once Ukraine joined the EU, it would have been lost to Russian hegemony forever.
    - danbruc 4y ago
      So in short, Russia becoming a local hegemon is fine in principle, there is just no way this will happen by any acceptable means, correct? But now I don't actually know why I went down this thread, I don't think Putin believes he should and can become a local hegemon.
      - mannerheim 4y ago
        > So in short, Russia becoming a local hegemon is fine in principle As an outside observer, perhaps, but I suspect for those in Eastern Europe who lived under Russian hegemony in living memory, even this would be undesirable. > But now I don't actually know why I went down this thread, I don't think Putin believes he should and can become a local hegemon. It is a matter of speculation whether Putin actually believes in expanding Russia and its sphere of influence, or merely acts so, but it hardly matters if that's the way he's acting.
        danbruc 4y ago
        As an outside observer, perhaps, but I suspect for those in Eastern Europe who lived under Russian hegemony in living memory, even this would be undesirable. Cuba probably does not feel any better about the US hegemony, they are getting punished for no good reasons since 60 years. It is a matter of speculation whether Putin actually believes in expanding Russia and its sphere of influence, or merely acts so, but it hardly matters if that's the way he's acting. I think this makes a big difference because the possible solutions for this conflict will be very different.