8 ms·

Eventually, developed and aging countries like Japan or South Korea have to import immigrants or simply die away gradually. Either way, their cultures are going

Eventually, developed and aging countries like Japan or South Korea have to import immigrants or simply die away gradually. Either way, their cultures are going to cease the way they are today.

onepointsixC 4y ago
So what happens when the whole world becomes developed? Immigration as a solution to population decline seems like a temporary fix.
- dropit_sphere 4y ago
  https://twitter.com/extradeadjcb/status/1609972258725892097 https://twitter.com/extradeadjcb/status/1609972258725892097
  - MonkeyMalarky 4y ago
    Scrolling down a bit, I see this reply: >If say, blue deep state dysfunction keeps getting worse, and it ends up couped by reds who purge & reform the federal government along the lines of less handouts, more guns, and set up the system so that political power of unproductive classes is minimized, woke may just die out. Wow.
    - kibwen 4y ago
      First day on Twitter?
  - Dig1t 4y ago
    >It's not at all clear that biological agelessness is impossible. I have heard this before, I kind of think that there is a nontrivial percentage of people that hope or believe that we will solve aging within their lifetime and that having kids isn’t necessary.
- ShredKazoo 4y ago
  Africa is projected to grow rapidly in population until the end of the century. If developed countries can assimilate large numbers of African immigrants peacefully and productively, that could represent a path forward for the planet. India's population also continues to explode. We've been very successful assimilating Indian immigrants in the US. This blog post is a great read on the importance of institutions and how assimilation has succeeded with past immigrant waves: https://anowrasteh.substack.com/p/review-of-the-culture-transplant-184 https://anowrasteh.substack.com/p/review-of-the-culture-tran... The tl;dr is that in principle, it's possible to imagine a South Korea in the year 2100 which is 80% descended from African immigrants and functions more or less the same way it does today. The immigrants just have to come at a slow enough rate that they adopt to the local way of doing things instead of overwhelming it. Probably would work best with a points-based immigration system similar to what Canada has. Also getting the host country to accept the new arrivals would also be an important challenge. In my opinion, more countries should follow France's lead and establish a foreign legion, so even right-wingers have to acknowledge that immigrants are helping the country out.
  - verdenti 4y ago
    [dead]
  - onepointsixC 4y ago
    >Africa is projected to grow rapidly in population until the end of the century. If developed countries can assimilate large numbers of African immigrants peacefully and productively, that could represent a path forward for the planet. I don't see any reason why anyone should take those projections seriously. Countries went from booms to baby busts in the span of few decades.
  - mbustamanter 4y ago
    Latest UN projection was adjusted so that by the end of century they would 100 million less people, again from a downward adjustment three years ago. They will experience a modernization unlike the world has ever seen thanks to globalization, and there is no reason to believe they will have that many people as a consequence of the decline in fertility rates (caused by education, more wealth, etc.).
- verdenti 4y ago
  [dead]
- mschuster91 4y ago
  > So what happens when the whole world becomes developed? The criteria for what makes a country "developed" will shift: at the moment, it's stuff like 24/7 reliable electricity and communications grids, fresh water and sewage grids, transportation infrastructure, access to healthcare, affordable quality housing and food. As a result of that being available, particularly healthcare, food and water, reproduction rates will fall as you don't need six children to hope one makes it to an old enough age to be a caregiver. We're seeing this pattern already with first and second generation migrants from countries with high reproduction rates. > Immigration as a solution to population decline seems like a temporary fix. It doesn't need to be more then a temporary fix: those countries who are rich at the moment will still be rich in the future and continue to invent stuff - the new marker for "developed" may then be "basic labor is done by robots", so there won't be any more need for more immigration. The crucial issue is that Western societies are hard-wired on judging people by their employment - my fear is that in a world with declining employment rates, we'll end up with a small caste of ultra rich elites, and a mob of people who may enjoy what we call a "high standard of living" in our standards, but still fighting for status aka the few jobs that will exist, and there will be lots of people blaming immigrants again.
MrBuddyCasino 4y ago
How is „replacing the native population with immigrants“ materially different from „dying away gradually“?
- renewiltord 4y ago
  In the former universe, you lose genetic continuity but may retain cultural continuity. Up to you whether that matters. To the Japanese, who adopt adults into the family to preserve the family business notion, one can speculate that they care about the cultural continuity more than the genetic continuity, but it's hard to tell. Most online descriptions of Japanese people appear as caricatures, but from the few who I know who live in Japan, they are like any other human group: if some form of continuity or success is the only form accessible they will accept it.
  - thriftwy 4y ago
    Most countries who import a lot of labor tend to specialize on a narrow profile of immigrants (Turks in Germany, Latinos in the US, Central Asians in Russia), hence they are not getting cultural continuity. The imported labor clings together and forms a distinct culture. In this regard it would make sense to eat it up and accept population decline. Japan of 50 million Japanese is still Japan. Japan of 40 million Japanese and 40 million Filipino is no longer Japan. May still be passable country, though.
    - Armisael16 4y ago
      Turks make up less than 15% of immigrants in Germany. The US currently gets more Asian immigrants than Latinos.
      - thriftwy 4y ago
        So you're confident that the melting pot will eventually cook the stew even as very little regard is given to what goes in it? That plus rigging the statistics to display much more favorable numbers.
greggarious 4y ago
[flagged]
- chimineycricket 4y ago
  Japanese culture ceasing to exist isn't about tattoos or racism or whatever bad culture points you want to call out, it's the good that would cease to exist as well. Every culture has problems (including Japanese), but just because Japanese culture dies doesn't mean that it will be purified and become without flaws. Not sure why you suggest it's good if Japanese culture ceases to exist.
  - greggarious 4y ago
    I said it might not be bad if "their cultures are going to cease the way they are today." and pointed out issues with racism and sexism. (The classic example being unwilling to tolerate guest workers, as I mentioned in reply to annother commenter). I didn't mean the entire culture should cease to exist, hence taking pains to point out positive things too. (They're more health oriented for example -- can't get a healthy meal in an American 7/11 unless you count the weight loss from a pack of cigs for breakfast)
  - JCharante 4y ago
    It's more like, why are you trying to force them to keep it alive?
- recuter 4y ago
  > Is that a bad thing? I've been to Japan. Hilarious. > It's a lovely place to visit but I cannot understand why the HN crowd idolizes it when there's a lot of places in SE Asia that have less toxic attitudes about immigrants and women. We must all share your values or perish? Anything short of them is unfathomable to you? And you have a deep understanding of 130m people because you've stepped foot in the country? My friend, it is you who are the toxic bigot.
  - greggarious 4y ago
edgyquant 4y ago
Why do these nations need to keep growing in population as opposed to shrinking to a more sustainable one?
- ozim 4y ago
  Shrinking to “more sustainable one” sounds like - “let already living old people die on the streets”. These people are already there and decline rate seems tragically unsustainable. Shrinking population would be somewhat OK if it would be organic.
  - lmm 4y ago
    The shrinking population in Japan is absolutely organic. I suspect panicking about it (certainly if it extends to e.g. opening up to immigration) is doing more damage than the actual population decline does.
- unity1001 4y ago
  Japan is not shrinking. Its nose-diving.
- RestlessMind 4y ago
  1. Because you don't shrink uniformly. Shrinkage is unevenly distributed over the age groups. In simpler terms, you will have a shrunk society with a lot of old people and very few young ones. Who will run the society in that case? TFA talks about a specific instance of that problem in detail, but also provides useful overall stats where profitable businesses are shuttering down only because there are no humans to run them. 2. This shrinking will be painful as our current structure relies on young caring for old, either directly as part of families or indirectly via tax-funded social programs. If there are not enough young people to pay taxes for the welfare, what should we do about the old ones? Let them die? Let them rot away in loneliness[1]? Force them to work till they die[2]? Or nudge them towards euthanasia like Canada does[3]? [1] another recent NYT article on this subject: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/03/health/elderly-living-alone.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/03/health/elderly-living-alo... [2] see the debate about raising medicare age to 67 [3] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32528647 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32528647
mc32 4y ago
Both countries existed before they experienced population growth (due to modern medicine), so there is little reason to believe they cannot exist at previous population levels with some adjustments. It's not as though they will simply refuse to reproduce, but rather may settle for a stable population around what they had in the `40s or `50s --which would be great if every country went back to those population levels given the consumption demands of today's people.
- unity1001 4y ago
  > there is little reason to believe they cannot exist at previous population levels with some adjustments There is all the reason to believe that. In the past few years, Japan took in a record number of immigrants, and yet they still werent able to stop the population decline. They lost ~600,000 people/year in total or during that time period, if i remember right. 'Some adjustments' wont fix that. A total overhaul of the society is necessary.

Eventually, developed and aging countries like Japan or South Korea have to import immigrants or simply die away gradually. Either way, their cultures are going to cease the way they are today.

onepointsixC 4y ago

So what happens when the whole world becomes developed? Immigration as a solution to population decline seems like a temporary fix.

dropit_sphere 4y ago
https://twitter.com/extradeadjcb/status/1609972258725892097 https://twitter.com/extradeadjcb/status/1609972258725892097
- MonkeyMalarky 4y ago
  Scrolling down a bit, I see this reply: >If say, blue deep state dysfunction keeps getting worse, and it ends up couped by reds who purge & reform the federal government along the lines of less handouts, more guns, and set up the system so that political power of unproductive classes is minimized, woke may just die out. Wow.
  - kibwen 4y ago
    First day on Twitter?
- Dig1t 4y ago
  >It's not at all clear that biological agelessness is impossible. I have heard this before, I kind of think that there is a nontrivial percentage of people that hope or believe that we will solve aging within their lifetime and that having kids isn’t necessary.
ShredKazoo 4y ago
Africa is projected to grow rapidly in population until the end of the century. If developed countries can assimilate large numbers of African immigrants peacefully and productively, that could represent a path forward for the planet. India's population also continues to explode. We've been very successful assimilating Indian immigrants in the US. This blog post is a great read on the importance of institutions and how assimilation has succeeded with past immigrant waves: https://anowrasteh.substack.com/p/review-of-the-culture-transplant-184 https://anowrasteh.substack.com/p/review-of-the-culture-tran... The tl;dr is that in principle, it's possible to imagine a South Korea in the year 2100 which is 80% descended from African immigrants and functions more or less the same way it does today. The immigrants just have to come at a slow enough rate that they adopt to the local way of doing things instead of overwhelming it. Probably would work best with a points-based immigration system similar to what Canada has. Also getting the host country to accept the new arrivals would also be an important challenge. In my opinion, more countries should follow France's lead and establish a foreign legion, so even right-wingers have to acknowledge that immigrants are helping the country out.
- verdenti 4y ago
  [dead]
- onepointsixC 4y ago
  >Africa is projected to grow rapidly in population until the end of the century. If developed countries can assimilate large numbers of African immigrants peacefully and productively, that could represent a path forward for the planet. I don't see any reason why anyone should take those projections seriously. Countries went from booms to baby busts in the span of few decades.
- mbustamanter 4y ago
  Latest UN projection was adjusted so that by the end of century they would 100 million less people, again from a downward adjustment three years ago. They will experience a modernization unlike the world has ever seen thanks to globalization, and there is no reason to believe they will have that many people as a consequence of the decline in fertility rates (caused by education, more wealth, etc.).
verdenti 4y ago
[dead]
mschuster91 4y ago
> So what happens when the whole world becomes developed? The criteria for what makes a country "developed" will shift: at the moment, it's stuff like 24/7 reliable electricity and communications grids, fresh water and sewage grids, transportation infrastructure, access to healthcare, affordable quality housing and food. As a result of that being available, particularly healthcare, food and water, reproduction rates will fall as you don't need six children to hope one makes it to an old enough age to be a caregiver. We're seeing this pattern already with first and second generation migrants from countries with high reproduction rates. > Immigration as a solution to population decline seems like a temporary fix. It doesn't need to be more then a temporary fix: those countries who are rich at the moment will still be rich in the future and continue to invent stuff - the new marker for "developed" may then be "basic labor is done by robots", so there won't be any more need for more immigration. The crucial issue is that Western societies are hard-wired on judging people by their employment - my fear is that in a world with declining employment rates, we'll end up with a small caste of ultra rich elites, and a mob of people who may enjoy what we call a "high standard of living" in our standards, but still fighting for status aka the few jobs that will exist, and there will be lots of people blaming immigrants again.

MrBuddyCasino 4y ago

How is „replacing the native population with immigrants“ materially different from „dying away gradually“?

renewiltord 4y ago
In the former universe, you lose genetic continuity but may retain cultural continuity. Up to you whether that matters. To the Japanese, who adopt adults into the family to preserve the family business notion, one can speculate that they care about the cultural continuity more than the genetic continuity, but it's hard to tell. Most online descriptions of Japanese people appear as caricatures, but from the few who I know who live in Japan, they are like any other human group: if some form of continuity or success is the only form accessible they will accept it.
- thriftwy 4y ago
  Most countries who import a lot of labor tend to specialize on a narrow profile of immigrants (Turks in Germany, Latinos in the US, Central Asians in Russia), hence they are not getting cultural continuity. The imported labor clings together and forms a distinct culture. In this regard it would make sense to eat it up and accept population decline. Japan of 50 million Japanese is still Japan. Japan of 40 million Japanese and 40 million Filipino is no longer Japan. May still be passable country, though.
  - Armisael16 4y ago
    Turks make up less than 15% of immigrants in Germany. The US currently gets more Asian immigrants than Latinos.
    - thriftwy 4y ago
      So you're confident that the melting pot will eventually cook the stew even as very little regard is given to what goes in it? That plus rigging the statistics to display much more favorable numbers.

greggarious 4y ago

[flagged]

chimineycricket 4y ago
Japanese culture ceasing to exist isn't about tattoos or racism or whatever bad culture points you want to call out, it's the good that would cease to exist as well. Every culture has problems (including Japanese), but just because Japanese culture dies doesn't mean that it will be purified and become without flaws. Not sure why you suggest it's good if Japanese culture ceases to exist.
- greggarious 4y ago
  I said it might not be bad if "their cultures are going to cease the way they are today." and pointed out issues with racism and sexism. (The classic example being unwilling to tolerate guest workers, as I mentioned in reply to annother commenter). I didn't mean the entire culture should cease to exist, hence taking pains to point out positive things too. (They're more health oriented for example -- can't get a healthy meal in an American 7/11 unless you count the weight loss from a pack of cigs for breakfast)
- JCharante 4y ago
  It's more like, why are you trying to force them to keep it alive?
recuter 4y ago
> Is that a bad thing? I've been to Japan. Hilarious. > It's a lovely place to visit but I cannot understand why the HN crowd idolizes it when there's a lot of places in SE Asia that have less toxic attitudes about immigrants and women. We must all share your values or perish? Anything short of them is unfathomable to you? And you have a deep understanding of 130m people because you've stepped foot in the country? My friend, it is you who are the toxic bigot.
- greggarious 4y ago

edgyquant 4y ago

Why do these nations need to keep growing in population as opposed to shrinking to a more sustainable one?

ozim 4y ago
Shrinking to “more sustainable one” sounds like - “let already living old people die on the streets”. These people are already there and decline rate seems tragically unsustainable. Shrinking population would be somewhat OK if it would be organic.
- lmm 4y ago
  The shrinking population in Japan is absolutely organic. I suspect panicking about it (certainly if it extends to e.g. opening up to immigration) is doing more damage than the actual population decline does.
unity1001 4y ago
Japan is not shrinking. Its nose-diving.
RestlessMind 4y ago
1. Because you don't shrink uniformly. Shrinkage is unevenly distributed over the age groups. In simpler terms, you will have a shrunk society with a lot of old people and very few young ones. Who will run the society in that case? TFA talks about a specific instance of that problem in detail, but also provides useful overall stats where profitable businesses are shuttering down only because there are no humans to run them. 2. This shrinking will be painful as our current structure relies on young caring for old, either directly as part of families or indirectly via tax-funded social programs. If there are not enough young people to pay taxes for the welfare, what should we do about the old ones? Let them die? Let them rot away in loneliness[1]? Force them to work till they die[2]? Or nudge them towards euthanasia like Canada does[3]? [1] another recent NYT article on this subject: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/03/health/elderly-living-alone.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/03/health/elderly-living-alo... [2] see the debate about raising medicare age to 67 [3] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32528647 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32528647

mc32 4y ago

Both countries existed before they experienced population growth (due to modern medicine), so there is little reason to believe they cannot exist at previous population levels with some adjustments. It's not as though they will simply refuse to reproduce, but rather may settle for a stable population around what they had in the `40s or `50s --which would be great if every country went back to those population levels given the consumption demands of today's people.

unity1001 4y ago
> there is little reason to believe they cannot exist at previous population levels with some adjustments There is all the reason to believe that. In the past few years, Japan took in a record number of immigrants, and yet they still werent able to stop the population decline. They lost ~600,000 people/year in total or during that time period, if i remember right. 'Some adjustments' wont fix that. A total overhaul of the society is necessary.