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In unrelated news, "As investigators piece together clues, Russia has quietly taken steps to begin expensive repairs on the giant gas pipeline, complicating the

In unrelated news, "As investigators piece together clues, Russia has quietly taken steps to begin expensive repairs on the giant gas pipeline, complicating theories about who was behind September’s sabotage." [1] A farce of historical proportions. 1 - https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/26/world/europe/nordstream-pipeline-explosion-russia.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/26/world/europe/nordstream-p...

keewee7 4y ago
As a European I'm glad the CIA/Poland/aliens blew up the pipelines that were funding the Russian invasion. Even the environmental effect was minor; the methane emission from the leaks had 1/5th of the GHG effect of my small country's, Denmark, annual GHG emission.
- pphysch 4y ago
  Europe continues to send more money than ever to Russia [1], whether by proxy or not. Industrial terrorism against Germany, by US/UK/etc., does not change that. What is does do is reinforce the European dependency on Washington, as evidenced by this post. 1 - https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/russia-s-oil-and-gas-export-revenues-from-the-european-union https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/russia-s-oil-...
  - Zanfa 4y ago
    This was true because of the all time high natural gas prices (€350/MWh) and high oil prices, both of which have now dropped to pre-war levels (~€70/MWh).
    - pphysch 4y ago
      "Pre-war levels" is a disingenuous sleight-of-hand. Gas was at €15-20 in winter 20-21 before Zelensky declared his intent to assault Sevestapol, after which the price gradually quadrupled. All before Russia invaded.
      - Zanfa 4y ago
        It's really not if we're talking about the sum of payments to Russia from EU for oil/gas. Before the 24th, the share of Russian gas was hovering above 50% of total EU imports and when the price skyrocketed, the dollar value of imports did as well. Your link cuts off at Q2 2022, which is when the price was at it's highest. Since then, Russian gas imports have dropped off a cliff as well as the price. As of Dec 2022, EU imported only about 1/5 of the amount of gas from Russia that they did Dec 2021. Given the new (and planned) LNG capabilities, that percentage will only keep dropping. So yes, EU did pay the most money they've ever paid for gas to Russia, but that was a one-off situation, which is not going to repeat. Russia overplayed it's hand.
      - NicoJuicy 4y ago
        Russia invaded in 2014
        deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
        pphysch 4y ago
        Gas was not even close to €70 in 2014.
        NicoJuicy 4y ago
        > All before Russia invaded. Russia invaded in 2014...
        pphysch 4y ago
        As a reminder, you are currently defending the argument that European gas has dropped to "pre-war levels". 70 is not less than 20.
        NicoJuicy 4y ago
        No, you're correlation is wrong, i did not say that. I'm making you aware that Russia invaded Ukraine. Sevestapol is from Ukraine, not Russia. As such, Putin (Russia) is the aggressor, not Zelensky. And oil skyrocket because of Russian actions ( eg. Cutting off oil)
  - ManuelKiessling 4y ago
    No question the European dependency on Washington is currently reinforced. However, it just occured to me that LNG terminals have one big advantage over a Russia-Europe pipeline: There is exactly one country that can send gas through a pipline that starts in Russia. There are many countries that can send ships to our LNG terminals. If, how, and when we make use of that flexibility is another question completely, of course.
sschueller 4y ago
Adding another nail to the coffin claiming Russia blew up their own pipeline. At some point we have to face reality that it was the west and most likely the UK and US in a joint operation as the no one else has such capabilities. Once we accept that we need to ask ourselves (as Europeans) who is really on our side and who has OUR best interests in mind. I don't blame the US for taking advantage of a crisis but we need to stop being so gulable to believe they won't as they have time and time again.
- Zanfa 4y ago
  > Adding another nail to the coffin claiming Russia blew up their own pipeline. Or not. Blowing up NS1 to pressure Germany to allow NS2 to open wouldn't be inconceivable, while also pushing up the price of gas through other pipelines. It's risky and stupid, but that also describes most of what Russia's been doing the last 9 months.
  - labcomputer 4y ago
    But it doesn’t make any sense. Like, at all. Implicit in the threat of “do what we say, or we turn the gas off” is “and we’ll let you keep the gas if you do”. Russia’s threats become completely empty and meaningless if the blackmailees know that the blackmailer can’t turn the gas back on. The game theory becomes totally boring when both outcomes are “Europe doesn’t have gas”. The obvious strategy becomes “just support Ukraine because there is no penalty for doing so”. Which is the opposite of what Russia wants. It also forces Europe to find other gas sources… after which, any future attempt to use gas for blackmail is less effective. Again, opposite of Russia’s interests. Putin may be stupid, but he’s not that stupid.
    - Zanfa 4y ago
      > Russia’s threats become completely empty and meaningless if the blackmailees know that the blackmailer can’t turn the gas back on. Empty threats are Russia's MO and have been for literal decades now. They've threatened Europe with nukes so many times that it doesn't even make the news anymore when it happens. Also, NS1 was not the only operational pipeline and it would have been a massive win for Russia if Germany had flipped their decision on NS2 to ensure their own gas supply. And clearly if they're working on NS1 now, it wasn't damaged beyond repair. > Putin may be stupid, but he’s not that stupid. I don't know, it sure looks like it. Most of his recent actions seem to be best explained as short-term fixes to a massive strategic blunder. It's only human to try to read into things and assume there must be some greater plan to his moves.
slezyr 4y ago
> The best undersea surveillance in the area, security experts say, is by Russian sonar sensors along the pipeline. Western investigators have no access to that data.
- mint2 4y ago
  If Russia had any evidence they could contort or doctor to implicate the US they’d do it yesterday. If they had evidence that suggested it without having to contort it, they’d be shouting it from the rooftops.
  - pphysch 4y ago
    With what media platform would Russia "shout it from the rooftops" to Western audiences? Who would listen?

keewee7 4y ago

As a European I'm glad the CIA/Poland/aliens blew up the pipelines that were funding the Russian invasion. Even the environmental effect was minor; the methane emission from the leaks had 1/5th of the GHG effect of my small country's, Denmark, annual GHG emission.

pphysch 4y ago
Europe continues to send more money than ever to Russia [1], whether by proxy or not. Industrial terrorism against Germany, by US/UK/etc., does not change that. What is does do is reinforce the European dependency on Washington, as evidenced by this post. 1 - https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/russia-s-oil-and-gas-export-revenues-from-the-european-union https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/russia-s-oil-...
- Zanfa 4y ago
  This was true because of the all time high natural gas prices (€350/MWh) and high oil prices, both of which have now dropped to pre-war levels (~€70/MWh).
  - pphysch 4y ago
    "Pre-war levels" is a disingenuous sleight-of-hand. Gas was at €15-20 in winter 20-21 before Zelensky declared his intent to assault Sevestapol, after which the price gradually quadrupled. All before Russia invaded.
    - Zanfa 4y ago
      It's really not if we're talking about the sum of payments to Russia from EU for oil/gas. Before the 24th, the share of Russian gas was hovering above 50% of total EU imports and when the price skyrocketed, the dollar value of imports did as well. Your link cuts off at Q2 2022, which is when the price was at it's highest. Since then, Russian gas imports have dropped off a cliff as well as the price. As of Dec 2022, EU imported only about 1/5 of the amount of gas from Russia that they did Dec 2021. Given the new (and planned) LNG capabilities, that percentage will only keep dropping. So yes, EU did pay the most money they've ever paid for gas to Russia, but that was a one-off situation, which is not going to repeat. Russia overplayed it's hand.
    - NicoJuicy 4y ago
      Russia invaded in 2014
      - deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
      - pphysch 4y ago
        Gas was not even close to €70 in 2014.
        NicoJuicy 4y ago
        > All before Russia invaded. Russia invaded in 2014...
        pphysch 4y ago
        As a reminder, you are currently defending the argument that European gas has dropped to "pre-war levels". 70 is not less than 20.
        NicoJuicy 4y ago
        No, you're correlation is wrong, i did not say that. I'm making you aware that Russia invaded Ukraine. Sevestapol is from Ukraine, not Russia. As such, Putin (Russia) is the aggressor, not Zelensky. And oil skyrocket because of Russian actions ( eg. Cutting off oil)
- ManuelKiessling 4y ago
  No question the European dependency on Washington is currently reinforced. However, it just occured to me that LNG terminals have one big advantage over a Russia-Europe pipeline: There is exactly one country that can send gas through a pipline that starts in Russia. There are many countries that can send ships to our LNG terminals. If, how, and when we make use of that flexibility is another question completely, of course.

sschueller 4y ago

Adding another nail to the coffin claiming Russia blew up their own pipeline. At some point we have to face reality that it was the west and most likely the UK and US in a joint operation as the no one else has such capabilities. Once we accept that we need to ask ourselves (as Europeans) who is really on our side and who has OUR best interests in mind. I don't blame the US for taking advantage of a crisis but we need to stop being so gulable to believe they won't as they have time and time again.

Zanfa 4y ago
> Adding another nail to the coffin claiming Russia blew up their own pipeline. Or not. Blowing up NS1 to pressure Germany to allow NS2 to open wouldn't be inconceivable, while also pushing up the price of gas through other pipelines. It's risky and stupid, but that also describes most of what Russia's been doing the last 9 months.
- labcomputer 4y ago
  But it doesn’t make any sense. Like, at all. Implicit in the threat of “do what we say, or we turn the gas off” is “and we’ll let you keep the gas if you do”. Russia’s threats become completely empty and meaningless if the blackmailees know that the blackmailer can’t turn the gas back on. The game theory becomes totally boring when both outcomes are “Europe doesn’t have gas”. The obvious strategy becomes “just support Ukraine because there is no penalty for doing so”. Which is the opposite of what Russia wants. It also forces Europe to find other gas sources… after which, any future attempt to use gas for blackmail is less effective. Again, opposite of Russia’s interests. Putin may be stupid, but he’s not that stupid.
  - Zanfa 4y ago
    > Russia’s threats become completely empty and meaningless if the blackmailees know that the blackmailer can’t turn the gas back on. Empty threats are Russia's MO and have been for literal decades now. They've threatened Europe with nukes so many times that it doesn't even make the news anymore when it happens. Also, NS1 was not the only operational pipeline and it would have been a massive win for Russia if Germany had flipped their decision on NS2 to ensure their own gas supply. And clearly if they're working on NS1 now, it wasn't damaged beyond repair. > Putin may be stupid, but he’s not that stupid. I don't know, it sure looks like it. Most of his recent actions seem to be best explained as short-term fixes to a massive strategic blunder. It's only human to try to read into things and assume there must be some greater plan to his moves.

slezyr 4y ago

> The best undersea surveillance in the area, security experts say, is by Russian sonar sensors along the pipeline. Western investigators have no access to that data.

mint2 4y ago
If Russia had any evidence they could contort or doctor to implicate the US they’d do it yesterday. If they had evidence that suggested it without having to contort it, they’d be shouting it from the rooftops.
- pphysch 4y ago
  With what media platform would Russia "shout it from the rooftops" to Western audiences? Who would listen?