8 ms·

Windows Phone is failing because the seeds were planted elsewhere

31 points by bradleyland 15y ago

maxklein 15y ago
Windows Phone is failing because people are not putting it on handsets, and people are not putting it on handsets because Microsoft charges a licensing fee that needs to be pre-paid and that reduces already pretty thin margins.
wmf 15y ago
A good point. MS is trying to play by Apple's rules (or pretty close), but you never win that way. This should be a lesson to the people who claim that HP/RIM/etc. would be successful if only they'd copy Apple's playbook.
- cooldeal 15y ago
  If WP7 was released at the same time Android was, it might have taken off. No one is talking about the 500lb gorilla in the room... carriers. Verizon launched Android into the mainstream with the Droid commercials as a hedge against iPhones. Many people call even other Android phones the Droid phones. Similar interest in WP7 is lacking from carriers.
  - cosmez 15y ago
    good point, WP7 came too late and the marketing is not as good as the other two phones. I haven't seen a single WP7 commercial in Mexico yet.
astrodust 15y ago
At this point I kind of wonder if the best chance for success Microsoft has in these sorts of markets is to create one or more aggressive well-funded, startup-scale companies comprised of some bright people they already have and unleash them on the competition. If they're prepared to dump a few billion on the next Xbox, they could probably get ten or twenty amazingly hot start-ups for the same price. They're like a fat old bear now. Cranky, slow, but still enormously powerful, just lacking reach. Being forced to exist in Microsoft's stiflingly bureaucratic organization can't help anyone. The original Xbox team fought to stay independent. The Bing team had to go rogue to get anything done quickly. Both got re-assimilated before they could achieve their full potential.
nextparadigms 15y ago
This is very relevant (How great leaders inspire action): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qp0HIF3SfI4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qp0HIF3SfI4 Hint: It's all about the beliefs of a company and how consumers associate their beliefs with a company's beliefs. We know what Apple stands for (higher quality and more beautiful products). We know what Google stands for (more openess, more user freedom). What does Microsoft stand for? Can you answer it quickly? The only answer that comes fast enough is "money". I don't think Microsoft has an inbred culture inside the company for much else, at least not anymore. I also agree with the ending conclusion of the post, about Microsoft trying to cater to the "people in the middle", like not wanting to be close enough like Apple to deliver a great user experience, but not open enough like Android, too. In fact WP7 is even much stricter than desktop Windows. So they aren't addressing neither the Apple users, nor the Android users with this "mediocrity" strategy. Seth Godin likes to talk about how mediocrity is a bad place to be in, too: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqK6M_rTR40 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqK6M_rTR40
- recoiledsnake 15y ago
  95%+ of phone buyers couldn't care less about the company beliefs, forget about even knowing them. They go to their carrier store, where they see 10 Android phones and 1 Windows Phone in the corner which the salesmen steer them away from.
  - bradleyland 15y ago
    I agree with the first part of your statement, depending on your definition of "company beliefs". Corporate culture is pretty far from most consumer's minds at the time of purchase. You have to ask questions regarding the second half of your statement though: 1) Why are there 10 Android phones and 1 Windows phone? 2) Why do salesmen steer consumers way from Windows Phone? In my view, the first has to do with Microsoft's approach to Windows phone. Like Apple, and in contrast to Google, want tight control over the end-user experience. This combined with the fact that they were late to the market is creating a negative incentive for carrier's to put WP7 on handsets. I still maintain that the second has to do with the enormous momentum of consumer sentiment at this point. Phone salesmen spend a lot of time around phones. Many of them are "in to phones", so they're more acutely aware, albeit often misinformed, of the tech-punditry's view of these devices and the types of consumers that buy them. WP7 also lacked a strong device at launch, so a lackluster start resulted in negative feedback. The salesman is going to push what he likes, and gadget people like Android devices.
icefox 15y ago
It would be interesting if Microsoft "changed the game". Renamed it to the xPhone and made it the best portable gaming device to the point of trying to make it the replacement for the xbox 360. Give it some sort of reason to exist, some reason why users might choose it.
- fufulabs 15y ago
  I agree that this is a good idea.
- nextparadigms 15y ago
  How exactly will they do that without developer support and with mobile hardware that is already a year old at launch for their "high-end" devices?
- latch 15y ago
  Personally I think they should have gone after the enterprise and business users. They should have attacked RIM and they should have strengthened their own position in areas like point of sale, medical, inventory, and so on. It's too late now for the business users (a surprising number of corporate shops are supporting (or looking to support) iphones). As for POS/Medical/Inventory..it continues to be an ignored market segment which is, unbelievably, still best served by pre WP7 windows devices.
recoiledsnake 15y ago
I disagree. At the very most 3 to 5% of Android users use Android for the openness. I believe the pundits need to spend more time with normal people and not just geeks. My friend has her iPhone 4 with the same OS as when she bought it a year ago(never updated it), there are always 30 to 40 updates pending for the apps which she never does. Talk to many Android users about what Android version they're running and their eyes glaze over and they've never heard of Gingerbread or ICS, forget about choosing Android for openness.
- bad_user 15y ago
  I disagree with you - "normal people" love their live screensavers and wallpapers and the countless other tweaks they can do that are prohibited on both iOS and WinMo ;-) "normal people" also love that they can install software from third-party sources. It does have the downside that piracy is a problem, but we aren't talking about publishers here and normal people consider this a bonus. Also normal people buy Android phones because of openness, even though they may be unaware of it - because Android is open, carriers and phone makers also love it. This is one thing iOS fans hate about Android and for some valid reasons too, but if carriers/phone makers where too restricted in what they could do with Android, then Android wouldn't be open, or as popular as it is.
  - danssig 15y ago
    No, he's right. Nearly no one is buying an "Android" phone. They're buying Sony Ericsson, Samsung, HTC, etc. The're buying brands they trust. Honestly, if MS could just see this is and would make a nice deal with these phone vendors to get Windows on their phones I think Android would be down to a few percentage market share within a year.
    - AndrewDucker 15y ago
      Samsung and HTC make Windows Phones. Sony Ericsson is also talking about making them. Nobody seems to be buying them.
fufulabs 15y ago
Here are two great steps for MS to put WP7 in the race: 1. treat it like a game console. Make all your 1st party companies (Rare, Halo company, etc) make killer games for it and put them on the market for FREE. make money thru microtransactions if they have to. 2. DOMINATE video editing and sharing ON THE DEVICE. I think these two wedges will be enough to get the ball rolling to critical mass in 2013 if they manage to do it mid 2012.
- wvenable 15y ago
  1. A phone isn't really a hard-core gaming device which is the type of games their 1st party companies make. They're not going to make an Angry Birds or a Tiny Wings. 2. This is easily copied by Apple/Android -- Apple probably even has a head start on it. I think WP7 needs to stop concentrating on the consumer side and focus on the business side. RIM is about to implode and Apple doesn't have a strong presence in that area. Microsoft already has the necessary presence with exchange and active directory. Windows 8 will unify their UI experience. They are just wasting effort, time, and money trying to take on Apple and Android on their turf.
  - unobfuscate 15y ago
    I couldn't agree more, Microsoft still has a chance to own the corporate side. If they buy RIM, there is a chance for leverage down the road to fight the consumer battle. As it stands, they are just fighting the tide.
  - Samuel_Michon 15y ago
    Re: 1. iOS runs the Unreal Engine 3 as well as iD's RAGE engine. Look at games like Infinity Blade [1] and Rage HD [2], then try telling me that's not serious gaming. Re: 2. Yes, iMovie for iOS has been out for 18 months [3]. It's pretty darn good. [1] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JDvPIhCd8N4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JDvPIhCd8N4 [2] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fl2bAiloQwQ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fl2bAiloQwQ [3] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j69pZU5d2cs http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j69pZU5d2cs
    - 15y ago
tomkarlo 15y ago
Windows Phone is failing because it arrived three years too late, and offers too little innovation over iOS or Android. This is not a matter of Microsoft "losing the mobile market"... they simply never had it. They don't have the developer support (how often do you see your bank, or web sites, advertising their "Windows Mobile App"?) They don't have the users. Even if their product was materially better than the iPhone or Android, they still wouldn't be gaining traction. You can't arrive three to four years late with a "me too" product at a "me too" price point, lacking the app ecosystem of your competitors, and honestly expect success.
- sliverstorm 15y ago
  You can't arrive three to four years late with a "me too" product at a "me too" price point, lacking the app ecosystem of your competitors, and honestly expect success. Funny, if you replace "three to four" with "two to three", that's almost exactly what people said about Android.
  - tomkarlo 15y ago
    iPhone release, 2007, SDK release, 2008 Android release October 2008 (HTC Dream) There's a big difference in tech between one year and three years, especially when we're talking about the V1 of a product type. Additionally, Android offered developers, manufacturers and carriers options that they simply didn't get from iPhones. So far, I haven't seen anything that says Microsoft is providing something really new to any of those stakeholders, aside from a license fee.
  - latch 15y ago
    Really? I think most people in the know suspected (at the very least) that Android's openness and price tag was going to make it a winner with manufacturer's and carriers. Remember that iPhone was AT&T exclusive and every other US carrier was scrambling for a "solution". More importantly, when Android came out, the bottom of the market was still wide-open as was the more niche market of people who wanted an open phone. That's the point the article is making. WP didn't come out too late after the iPhone or Android, it came out too late after BOTH.
  - 15y ago
nickmolnar2 15y ago
One other fact that backs up the author's point is that while Apple has a low percentage of the computer market as a whole, they have >90% marketshare for PCs over $1000. That gives them a lot of loyal, high-end, customers who also happen to be the early adopters for new technologies. http://betanews.com/2009/07/22/apple-has-91-of-market-for-1-000-pcs-says-npd/ http://betanews.com/2009/07/22/apple-has-91-of-market-for-1-...
kayoone 15y ago
With iOS and Android there simply is no really good reason for WP7 to even exist in its current form. They will need to distinguish themselves to survive.
te_chris 15y ago
This guy ignores the fact that Microsoft has a fair bit of experience being the latecomer to a ( admittedly less dynamic and crowded) party. The first Xbox was just a stake in the ground, a declaration of micrsofts intention to play in a field that was already quite competitive and saturated. It won a few people over but it didn't win the market. Then they released the 360 and the main consoles in the market are now in a 3 way battle, instead of a two way one. Microsoft are, I hope, playing a long game that recognizes that people don't stay with their current phone forever.
- AndrewDucker 15y ago
  People bought an XBox because you had to if you wanted to play Halo. I'm not seeing a similarly good reason to buy a WinPhone.
  - EwanToo 15y ago
    Wait until Microsoft spend $500 million on a WP7 exclusive app... Well, maybe not $500 million, but Office for WP7 will be better than Office for Android or iOS equivalents, even if it means MS have to buy those developers first :)
    - AndrewDucker 15y ago
      Yup, if they can do something like that, then they'll get a big chunk of the business market. Provided nobody else can easily copy it, of course.
    - Oenotria 15y ago
      WP7 comes with Office out of the box... perhaps MS should try marketing that fact a bit more aggressively.
  - moe 15y ago
    I don't see that reason yet either, but after playing with a Nokia Lumia I do believe it's within the realm of possibility. They did get the basics right here, WinMobile is actually surprisingly good. First and foremost it's hands-down the most responsive UI, even an iPhone feels laggy in contrast. Also most of the core interface and features worked really well for me when I tried; the whole thing feels right, the interface is intuitive and beautiful. It seriously makes the iPhone look dated. What it lacks (apart from bugfixes) is customizability and the app ecosystem. Those are obviously huge issues, but not insurmountable when you have the warchest of a Microsoft.
Spearchucker 15y ago
Brad's post and the industry at large is accurately describing the outlook. Right now. It's a mistake (IMO) to ignore the long term. The Nokia angle is huge - people have and will buy a Nokia device just for Maps and Drive. Nokia know this so have spent a lot of energy in getting it right on the Lumia. Their killer feature is directions using public transport. This will pay off for them, and consequently for Microsoft. Some comments here say WP7 should aim for the gaming market. It already does. I watched a 12-year-old kid pick up a WP7 phone a few weeks ago - he went ballistic when he saw the Xbox tile on the home screen. His dad bought him a WP7 for xmas. Some comments here also say that WP7 should aim at the business user. This it also already does. WP7 and the forthcoming Windows 8 tablets are going to the the only phone/tablet combination that intergrate natively with Active Directory, System Centre, Office and Office 365, DirectAccess, and so on. That is a very compelling sell into a corporate market that is finding it difficult to integrate and secure iPhones and Android phones in "the enterprise." The last point I think is worth making is that for app developers WP offers a very profitable marketplace. The five-year plan is very familiar and comfortable territory for Microsoft, and has historically shown it's effectiveness (IE/Netscape, Word/WordPerfect, Xbox/PS, and so on).
deleted 15y ago
[deleted]
myspy 15y ago
He's right about how Apple users (like me) think and act. I like this analysis.

31 points by bradleyland 15y ago

Windows Phone is failing because people are not putting it on handsets, and people are not putting it on handsets because Microsoft charges a licensing fee that needs to be pre-paid and that reduces already pretty thin margins.

wmf 15y ago

A good point. MS is trying to play by Apple's rules (or pretty close), but you never win that way. This should be a lesson to the people who claim that HP/RIM/etc. would be successful if only they'd copy Apple's playbook.

cooldeal 15y ago
If WP7 was released at the same time Android was, it might have taken off. No one is talking about the 500lb gorilla in the room... carriers. Verizon launched Android into the mainstream with the Droid commercials as a hedge against iPhones. Many people call even other Android phones the Droid phones. Similar interest in WP7 is lacking from carriers.
- cosmez 15y ago
  good point, WP7 came too late and the marketing is not as good as the other two phones. I haven't seen a single WP7 commercial in Mexico yet.

astrodust 15y ago

At this point I kind of wonder if the best chance for success Microsoft has in these sorts of markets is to create one or more aggressive well-funded, startup-scale companies comprised of some bright people they already have and unleash them on the competition. If they're prepared to dump a few billion on the next Xbox, they could probably get ten or twenty amazingly hot start-ups for the same price. They're like a fat old bear now. Cranky, slow, but still enormously powerful, just lacking reach. Being forced to exist in Microsoft's stiflingly bureaucratic organization can't help anyone. The original Xbox team fought to stay independent. The Bing team had to go rogue to get anything done quickly. Both got re-assimilated before they could achieve their full potential.

nextparadigms 15y ago

This is very relevant (How great leaders inspire action): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qp0HIF3SfI4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qp0HIF3SfI4 Hint: It's all about the beliefs of a company and how consumers associate their beliefs with a company's beliefs. We know what Apple stands for (higher quality and more beautiful products). We know what Google stands for (more openess, more user freedom). What does Microsoft stand for? Can you answer it quickly? The only answer that comes fast enough is "money". I don't think Microsoft has an inbred culture inside the company for much else, at least not anymore. I also agree with the ending conclusion of the post, about Microsoft trying to cater to the "people in the middle", like not wanting to be close enough like Apple to deliver a great user experience, but not open enough like Android, too. In fact WP7 is even much stricter than desktop Windows. So they aren't addressing neither the Apple users, nor the Android users with this "mediocrity" strategy. Seth Godin likes to talk about how mediocrity is a bad place to be in, too: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqK6M_rTR40 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqK6M_rTR40

recoiledsnake 15y ago
95%+ of phone buyers couldn't care less about the company beliefs, forget about even knowing them. They go to their carrier store, where they see 10 Android phones and 1 Windows Phone in the corner which the salesmen steer them away from.
- bradleyland 15y ago
  I agree with the first part of your statement, depending on your definition of "company beliefs". Corporate culture is pretty far from most consumer's minds at the time of purchase. You have to ask questions regarding the second half of your statement though: 1) Why are there 10 Android phones and 1 Windows phone? 2) Why do salesmen steer consumers way from Windows Phone? In my view, the first has to do with Microsoft's approach to Windows phone. Like Apple, and in contrast to Google, want tight control over the end-user experience. This combined with the fact that they were late to the market is creating a negative incentive for carrier's to put WP7 on handsets. I still maintain that the second has to do with the enormous momentum of consumer sentiment at this point. Phone salesmen spend a lot of time around phones. Many of them are "in to phones", so they're more acutely aware, albeit often misinformed, of the tech-punditry's view of these devices and the types of consumers that buy them. WP7 also lacked a strong device at launch, so a lackluster start resulted in negative feedback. The salesman is going to push what he likes, and gadget people like Android devices.

icefox 15y ago

It would be interesting if Microsoft "changed the game". Renamed it to the xPhone and made it the best portable gaming device to the point of trying to make it the replacement for the xbox 360. Give it some sort of reason to exist, some reason why users might choose it.

fufulabs 15y ago
I agree that this is a good idea.
nextparadigms 15y ago
How exactly will they do that without developer support and with mobile hardware that is already a year old at launch for their "high-end" devices?
latch 15y ago
Personally I think they should have gone after the enterprise and business users. They should have attacked RIM and they should have strengthened their own position in areas like point of sale, medical, inventory, and so on. It's too late now for the business users (a surprising number of corporate shops are supporting (or looking to support) iphones). As for POS/Medical/Inventory..it continues to be an ignored market segment which is, unbelievably, still best served by pre WP7 windows devices.

recoiledsnake 15y ago

I disagree. At the very most 3 to 5% of Android users use Android for the openness. I believe the pundits need to spend more time with normal people and not just geeks. My friend has her iPhone 4 with the same OS as when she bought it a year ago(never updated it), there are always 30 to 40 updates pending for the apps which she never does. Talk to many Android users about what Android version they're running and their eyes glaze over and they've never heard of Gingerbread or ICS, forget about choosing Android for openness.

bad_user 15y ago
I disagree with you - "normal people" love their live screensavers and wallpapers and the countless other tweaks they can do that are prohibited on both iOS and WinMo ;-) "normal people" also love that they can install software from third-party sources. It does have the downside that piracy is a problem, but we aren't talking about publishers here and normal people consider this a bonus. Also normal people buy Android phones because of openness, even though they may be unaware of it - because Android is open, carriers and phone makers also love it. This is one thing iOS fans hate about Android and for some valid reasons too, but if carriers/phone makers where too restricted in what they could do with Android, then Android wouldn't be open, or as popular as it is.
- danssig 15y ago
  No, he's right. Nearly no one is buying an "Android" phone. They're buying Sony Ericsson, Samsung, HTC, etc. The're buying brands they trust. Honestly, if MS could just see this is and would make a nice deal with these phone vendors to get Windows on their phones I think Android would be down to a few percentage market share within a year.
  - AndrewDucker 15y ago
    Samsung and HTC make Windows Phones. Sony Ericsson is also talking about making them. Nobody seems to be buying them.

fufulabs 15y ago

Here are two great steps for MS to put WP7 in the race: 1. treat it like a game console. Make all your 1st party companies (Rare, Halo company, etc) make killer games for it and put them on the market for FREE. make money thru microtransactions if they have to. 2. DOMINATE video editing and sharing ON THE DEVICE. I think these two wedges will be enough to get the ball rolling to critical mass in 2013 if they manage to do it mid 2012.

wvenable 15y ago
1. A phone isn't really a hard-core gaming device which is the type of games their 1st party companies make. They're not going to make an Angry Birds or a Tiny Wings. 2. This is easily copied by Apple/Android -- Apple probably even has a head start on it. I think WP7 needs to stop concentrating on the consumer side and focus on the business side. RIM is about to implode and Apple doesn't have a strong presence in that area. Microsoft already has the necessary presence with exchange and active directory. Windows 8 will unify their UI experience. They are just wasting effort, time, and money trying to take on Apple and Android on their turf.
- unobfuscate 15y ago
  I couldn't agree more, Microsoft still has a chance to own the corporate side. If they buy RIM, there is a chance for leverage down the road to fight the consumer battle. As it stands, they are just fighting the tide.
- Samuel_Michon 15y ago
  Re: 1. iOS runs the Unreal Engine 3 as well as iD's RAGE engine. Look at games like Infinity Blade [1] and Rage HD [2], then try telling me that's not serious gaming. Re: 2. Yes, iMovie for iOS has been out for 18 months [3]. It's pretty darn good. [1] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JDvPIhCd8N4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JDvPIhCd8N4 [2] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fl2bAiloQwQ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fl2bAiloQwQ [3] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j69pZU5d2cs http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j69pZU5d2cs
  - 15y ago

tomkarlo 15y ago

Windows Phone is failing because it arrived three years too late, and offers too little innovation over iOS or Android. This is not a matter of Microsoft "losing the mobile market"... they simply never had it. They don't have the developer support (how often do you see your bank, or web sites, advertising their "Windows Mobile App"?) They don't have the users. Even if their product was materially better than the iPhone or Android, they still wouldn't be gaining traction. You can't arrive three to four years late with a "me too" product at a "me too" price point, lacking the app ecosystem of your competitors, and honestly expect success.

sliverstorm 15y ago
You can't arrive three to four years late with a "me too" product at a "me too" price point, lacking the app ecosystem of your competitors, and honestly expect success. Funny, if you replace "three to four" with "two to three", that's almost exactly what people said about Android.
- tomkarlo 15y ago
  iPhone release, 2007, SDK release, 2008 Android release October 2008 (HTC Dream) There's a big difference in tech between one year and three years, especially when we're talking about the V1 of a product type. Additionally, Android offered developers, manufacturers and carriers options that they simply didn't get from iPhones. So far, I haven't seen anything that says Microsoft is providing something really new to any of those stakeholders, aside from a license fee.
- latch 15y ago
  Really? I think most people in the know suspected (at the very least) that Android's openness and price tag was going to make it a winner with manufacturer's and carriers. Remember that iPhone was AT&T exclusive and every other US carrier was scrambling for a "solution". More importantly, when Android came out, the bottom of the market was still wide-open as was the more niche market of people who wanted an open phone. That's the point the article is making. WP didn't come out too late after the iPhone or Android, it came out too late after BOTH.
- 15y ago

nickmolnar2 15y ago

One other fact that backs up the author's point is that while Apple has a low percentage of the computer market as a whole, they have >90% marketshare for PCs over $1000. That gives them a lot of loyal, high-end, customers who also happen to be the early adopters for new technologies. http://betanews.com/2009/07/22/apple-has-91-of-market-for-1-000-pcs-says-npd/ http://betanews.com/2009/07/22/apple-has-91-of-market-for-1-...

kayoone 15y ago

With iOS and Android there simply is no really good reason for WP7 to even exist in its current form. They will need to distinguish themselves to survive.

te_chris 15y ago

This guy ignores the fact that Microsoft has a fair bit of experience being the latecomer to a ( admittedly less dynamic and crowded) party. The first Xbox was just a stake in the ground, a declaration of micrsofts intention to play in a field that was already quite competitive and saturated. It won a few people over but it didn't win the market. Then they released the 360 and the main consoles in the market are now in a 3 way battle, instead of a two way one. Microsoft are, I hope, playing a long game that recognizes that people don't stay with their current phone forever.

AndrewDucker 15y ago
People bought an XBox because you had to if you wanted to play Halo. I'm not seeing a similarly good reason to buy a WinPhone.
- EwanToo 15y ago
  Wait until Microsoft spend $500 million on a WP7 exclusive app... Well, maybe not $500 million, but Office for WP7 will be better than Office for Android or iOS equivalents, even if it means MS have to buy those developers first :)
  - AndrewDucker 15y ago
    Yup, if they can do something like that, then they'll get a big chunk of the business market. Provided nobody else can easily copy it, of course.
  - Oenotria 15y ago
    WP7 comes with Office out of the box... perhaps MS should try marketing that fact a bit more aggressively.
- moe 15y ago
  I don't see that reason yet either, but after playing with a Nokia Lumia I do believe it's within the realm of possibility. They did get the basics right here, WinMobile is actually surprisingly good. First and foremost it's hands-down the most responsive UI, even an iPhone feels laggy in contrast. Also most of the core interface and features worked really well for me when I tried; the whole thing feels right, the interface is intuitive and beautiful. It seriously makes the iPhone look dated. What it lacks (apart from bugfixes) is customizability and the app ecosystem. Those are obviously huge issues, but not insurmountable when you have the warchest of a Microsoft.

Spearchucker 15y ago

Brad's post and the industry at large is accurately describing the outlook. Right now. It's a mistake (IMO) to ignore the long term. The Nokia angle is huge - people have and will buy a Nokia device just for Maps and Drive. Nokia know this so have spent a lot of energy in getting it right on the Lumia. Their killer feature is directions using public transport. This will pay off for them, and consequently for Microsoft. Some comments here say WP7 should aim for the gaming market. It already does. I watched a 12-year-old kid pick up a WP7 phone a few weeks ago - he went ballistic when he saw the Xbox tile on the home screen. His dad bought him a WP7 for xmas. Some comments here also say that WP7 should aim at the business user. This it also already does. WP7 and the forthcoming Windows 8 tablets are going to the the only phone/tablet combination that intergrate natively with Active Directory, System Centre, Office and Office 365, DirectAccess, and so on. That is a very compelling sell into a corporate market that is finding it difficult to integrate and secure iPhones and Android phones in "the enterprise." The last point I think is worth making is that for app developers WP offers a very profitable marketplace. The five-year plan is very familiar and comfortable territory for Microsoft, and has historically shown it's effectiveness (IE/Netscape, Word/WordPerfect, Xbox/PS, and so on).

deleted 15y ago

[deleted]

myspy 15y ago

He's right about how Apple users (like me) think and act. I like this analysis.