The only stat you need to know: debt to GDP ratio. When the debt > GDP, it means you are underwater and not taking in enough money to pay your bills as a nation

The only stat you need to know: debt to GDP ratio. When the debt > GDP, it means you are underwater and not taking in enough money to pay your bills as a nation. The US debt to GDP ratio has been over 120% since 2020. By IMF definition >120% means the country is an an economic death spiral. The government can't pay it's bills (all those loans for all that free bailout money.) By 2028 the US will only be making payments on the interest on it's loans, not the principal, which is the point of no return/when the economic death spiral becomes irreversible with US insolvency by 2042. Those are just the numbers and the timeframe. Look at how many countries are >120% and how they are each able to manage the problem (or not). The best example is Japan who can manage it even with lost decades because they are incestuous with their own money and resources. This has been a global economic crisis that has been hidden/ignored since at least 2014. Do a search for economic crisis and you'll see how long this has been going on and how long the government has had a timeline for it's own bankruptcy. Yet they overspend and prop up the economy for political purposes. China built entire fake cities to prop up their credit rating just so they could lend the US money. Anyway, as interest rates go up, private money goes into T-Bills, not stocks. That's what raising interest rates does. Private investment evaporates and smart money goes into stable not risky volatile assets whose price doesn't move much or at all (historically cash or gold), or those with best guaranteed returns, such as bonds. That's why T-Bills returns on short term bills are so high (if you trust the government can pay their bills, which they can't. They are betting on future growth and earnings, which comes with innovation, and barring solid state batteries, cold fusion or zero-point energy, we're all out of value innovation.) Soylent Green maybe?? So all that free money from the government with low interest rates on borrowing gets paid back before the government goes bankrupt. In theory. In reality it just excuses more overspending by government at the taxpayers expense. (just look at the past 20 years for reference.) Either way, recession is already underway despite what the government is telling you. The question is are we due for a depression. Barring some technical innovation/catalyst, all indicators point to yes without some major overhaul of the global economic system where debt is forgiven, digital currency which would end up working like a stock split, or war, which is the historical solution. Just a simple explanation of why inflation isn't going down is in this video: https://youtu.be/COZocfFifQw?t=423 https://youtu.be/COZocfFifQw?t=423 Apply this to most businesses/business models that took advantage of free/cheap/easy money for the past 10 years but didn't shift/pivot to a sustainable business model moving forward. Businesses will need to fold en masse before things START to change,(all the sick people dying off makes what's left look healthier) and that's going to kick into high gear starting his year. Systemic failures started in 2022. Just look at the food supply chain and the energy crisis that was created in the name of green energy and you'll start to wake up to how disastrous things have gotten thanks to energy and foreign/trade policy.