I find the arguments in these areas absurd and not absurd in almost equal measure, but I don't think your argument is a strong one against. If we bite the hook

I find the arguments in these areas absurd and not absurd in almost equal measure, but I don't think your argument is a strong one against. If we bite the hook then the thing we care about is something like expected value. That only applies for non-actualized future events. We tally the accident of Hitler's mother's death according to the probabilistic expected value of her contribution, which was approximately the same as any other woman of her time and place.