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How many EV batteries have caught fire in the manner in which you described per 100,000 vehicles sold, and how does that compare to gasoline vehicles? I’m not

by dangus 4y ago

How many EV batteries have caught fire in the manner in which you described per 100,000 vehicles sold, and how does that compare to gasoline vehicles? I’m not a fan of speculation for things so easily measurable. https://electrek.co/2022/01/12/government-data-shows-gasoline-vehicles-are-significantly-more-prone-to-fires-than-evs/ https://electrek.co/2022/01/12/government-data-shows-gasolin...

deleted 4y ago
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sn_master 4y ago
I am not sure what's your point? There's far less EVs now, and a negligible percentage of them are over 10 years and badly maintained. Also, the nature of fires is still very different. With gasoline you can put it off using water, while for EVs water will actually make the fire worse and you'll need special compounds to turn it off.
- dangus 4y ago
  This data is per 100,000 vehicles, which takes into account the proportional number of vehicles sold. An analogy: if a Cessna is more survivable in a crash than a jumbo jet but the jumbo jet crashes 100x less, you still want to be flying on the jumbo jet.
  - wtallis 4y ago
    The point you're missing is that even after normalizing for the number of vehicles, you still need to also normalize for the age of the vehicles: the rapid growth of EV sales means most EVs on the road are relatively new.
- ben-schaaf 4y ago
  > With gasoline you can put it off using water, while for EVs water will actually make the fire worse Water is perfectly fine to use on lithium-ion battery fires. It cools down the battery eventually stopping thermal runaway. A strategy I've seen is to submerge the battery pack in water. There's also water additives that help dissolve some of the chemicals in lithium-ion batteries. Note that lithium-ion (and similar) batteries only contain a small amount of polymerized lithium, unlike lithium batteries which contain raw lithium and thus react with water.
- themitigating 4y ago
  It appears you can contain EVs fires with a special blanket. Youtube "bridgehill fire blanket". It does reignite if the blanket is removed but containment will protect property. I should stop as I'm not an expert I just saw the video and report. As for probability, why are you assuming they'll be more dangerous?
didgetmaster 4y ago
This link seems highly suspect. In one graph they seem to be comparing number of vehicles recalled due to a potential fire hazard. That is not the same as actual number of vehicles that caught fire. You might have a model with 500,000 vehicles recalled because a faulty switch caused a fire in 5 cars. It also tries to combine data with hybrid vehicles with ICE vehicles because they also have a gas component. They don't do the same with EV, even though hybrids also have an battery component. There is no attempt to distinguish if the fires were caused by the gas or the battery in those cases. When I see a study fudge the numbers in one area, I am suspect of all the numbers it presents.
- dangus 4y ago
  There’s a sub-link in there to InsuranceEZ that has the data I’m referring to: https://www.autoinsuranceez.com/gas-vs-electric-car-fires/ https://www.autoinsuranceez.com/gas-vs-electric-car-fires/ The orange and purple colored chart.
somerandomqaguy 4y ago
Eh, I'm a skeptical of how Eletrek is interpreting the data; they're talking a very broad approach of total fires in ICE vs EV, which leaves next to no room for understanding why. The National Fire Prevention Association published analysis that's more nuanced to me: ------------------------------------- Figure 10 shows that roughly three-quarters of the highway vehicle fires reported in the US in 2017 that were caused by mechanical or electrical failures (77 percent) involved cars with model years of 2007 or earlier. This was true for only 54 percent of the fires resulting from collisions or overturns. As vehicles age, parts wear out, extended maintenance plans expire, and maintenance can be overlooked. Consequently, it is not surprising that vehicles that are at least 10 years old are at greater risk of a fire started by a mechanical or electrical failure or malfunction. -------------------------------------- - Source: https://www.nfpa.org/-/media/Files/News-and-Research/Fire-statistics-and-reports/US-Fire-Problem/osvehiclefires.pdf https://www.nfpa.org/-/media/Files/News-and-Research/Fire-st... On EV's, their opinion was mostly summed up as such: "Mechanical and electrical fires, the most common fires in ICEVs, become more common as the vehicles age. EVs have not yet reached the ages where these conditions are more commonly seen." So at least for me, I'd be somewhat hesitant to take Electrek claim's at face value.

by dangus 4y ago

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

sn_master 4y ago

I am not sure what's your point? There's far less EVs now, and a negligible percentage of them are over 10 years and badly maintained. Also, the nature of fires is still very different. With gasoline you can put it off using water, while for EVs water will actually make the fire worse and you'll need special compounds to turn it off.

dangus 4y ago
This data is per 100,000 vehicles, which takes into account the proportional number of vehicles sold. An analogy: if a Cessna is more survivable in a crash than a jumbo jet but the jumbo jet crashes 100x less, you still want to be flying on the jumbo jet.
- wtallis 4y ago
  The point you're missing is that even after normalizing for the number of vehicles, you still need to also normalize for the age of the vehicles: the rapid growth of EV sales means most EVs on the road are relatively new.
ben-schaaf 4y ago
> With gasoline you can put it off using water, while for EVs water will actually make the fire worse Water is perfectly fine to use on lithium-ion battery fires. It cools down the battery eventually stopping thermal runaway. A strategy I've seen is to submerge the battery pack in water. There's also water additives that help dissolve some of the chemicals in lithium-ion batteries. Note that lithium-ion (and similar) batteries only contain a small amount of polymerized lithium, unlike lithium batteries which contain raw lithium and thus react with water.
themitigating 4y ago
It appears you can contain EVs fires with a special blanket. Youtube "bridgehill fire blanket". It does reignite if the blanket is removed but containment will protect property. I should stop as I'm not an expert I just saw the video and report. As for probability, why are you assuming they'll be more dangerous?

didgetmaster 4y ago

This link seems highly suspect. In one graph they seem to be comparing number of vehicles recalled due to a potential fire hazard. That is not the same as actual number of vehicles that caught fire. You might have a model with 500,000 vehicles recalled because a faulty switch caused a fire in 5 cars. It also tries to combine data with hybrid vehicles with ICE vehicles because they also have a gas component. They don't do the same with EV, even though hybrids also have an battery component. There is no attempt to distinguish if the fires were caused by the gas or the battery in those cases. When I see a study fudge the numbers in one area, I am suspect of all the numbers it presents.

dangus 4y ago
There’s a sub-link in there to InsuranceEZ that has the data I’m referring to: https://www.autoinsuranceez.com/gas-vs-electric-car-fires/ https://www.autoinsuranceez.com/gas-vs-electric-car-fires/ The orange and purple colored chart.

somerandomqaguy 4y ago

Eh, I'm a skeptical of how Eletrek is interpreting the data; they're talking a very broad approach of total fires in ICE vs EV, which leaves next to no room for understanding why. The National Fire Prevention Association published analysis that's more nuanced to me: ------------------------------------- Figure 10 shows that roughly three-quarters of the highway vehicle fires reported in the US in 2017 that were caused by mechanical or electrical failures (77 percent) involved cars with model years of 2007 or earlier. This was true for only 54 percent of the fires resulting from collisions or overturns. As vehicles age, parts wear out, extended maintenance plans expire, and maintenance can be overlooked. Consequently, it is not surprising that vehicles that are at least 10 years old are at greater risk of a fire started by a mechanical or electrical failure or malfunction. -------------------------------------- - Source: https://www.nfpa.org/-/media/Files/News-and-Research/Fire-statistics-and-reports/US-Fire-Problem/osvehiclefires.pdf https://www.nfpa.org/-/media/Files/News-and-Research/Fire-st... On EV's, their opinion was mostly summed up as such: "Mechanical and electrical fires, the most common fires in ICEVs, become more common as the vehicles age. EVs have not yet reached the ages where these conditions are more commonly seen." So at least for me, I'd be somewhat hesitant to take Electrek claim's at face value.