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>It's a common misconception that the unemployment rate spikes (spikes, not fluctuates slightly higher) before recessions I'm not talking about using the unemp
by SantalBlush 4y ago
>It's a common misconception that the unemployment rate spikes (spikes, not fluctuates slightly higher) before recessions
I'm not talking about using the unemployment rate as a leading indicator, which is what you're describing here.
- Izkata 4y ago> > that evidence strongly suggests that we are not in one The unemployment part can't indicate current state either because it usually doesn't spike until months afterwards. We can easily be in a recession with unemployment still being low.
- SantalBlush 4y ago>The unemployment part can't indicate current state either Yes, it can. Nonfarm payroll employment--along with GDP--is one of the key measures used by the NBER in their determination of whether or not we're in a recession, so it is by definition a current indicator. You are stating that it's not a sufficient indicator in determining a recession, which is correct, but that's not what I was saying anyway. Unemployment is absolutely a relevant measure here, and you are wrong.