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That's what trive.news was about. Turns out crowd sourcing truth gives a weighted average towards accuracy. Something tells me businesses relying on getting "ex

That's what trive.news was about. Turns out crowd sourcing truth gives a weighted average towards accuracy. Something tells me businesses relying on getting "experts" to sell you on things, would want to keep general public opinion out of the equation. http://www.trive.news/Whitepaper.0.2.6x.pdf http://www.trive.news/Whitepaper.0.2.6x.pdf

culi 4y ago
the whitepaper offers no evidence for such claims except some vague about the "wisdom of the crowd" Experience from political betting spaces tells me that the wisdom of the crowd rarely actually holds up to scrutiny. Political bettors[0] hardly ever do as good as simple poll aggregators like 538 or RCP. [0]: https://electionbettingodds.com/ https://electionbettingodds.com/
- TEP_Kim_Il_Sung 4y ago
  The wisdom of crowds is a well known principle, used in engineering to overcome something that is extremely difficult to measure (noisy data for instance), considering only one single measurement would be very dangerous, since it might be extremely imprecise. However, if you measure 1000 times and take the average, the errors cancel out and you have a pretty accurate measurement :) https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HNQ3GccCAI0 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HNQ3GccCAI0
  - culi 4y ago
    That's not wisdom of the crowds. That's just a big sample size Also, the video you posted points out a critical part of it working: diversity I think that's why an aggregation of independent pollsters, as few of them as there might be, often ends up giving us a more accurate prediction than the millions of users that engage in PredictIt or similar betting websites
TEP_Kim_Il_Sung 4y ago
Interview of trive founder, where he explains the process https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJDL-kaJ_sY https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJDL-kaJ_sY
TEP_Kim_Il_Sung 4y ago
The Wisdom of Crowds v.s. The Stupidity of Herds https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FuObIEngySA https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FuObIEngySA
TEP_Kim_Il_Sung 4y ago
BBC - The Wisdom of the Crowd (original experiment) https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iOucwX7Z1HU https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iOucwX7Z1HU

culi 4y ago

the whitepaper offers no evidence for such claims except some vague about the "wisdom of the crowd" Experience from political betting spaces tells me that the wisdom of the crowd rarely actually holds up to scrutiny. Political bettors[0] hardly ever do as good as simple poll aggregators like 538 or RCP. [0]: https://electionbettingodds.com/ https://electionbettingodds.com/

TEP_Kim_Il_Sung 4y ago
The wisdom of crowds is a well known principle, used in engineering to overcome something that is extremely difficult to measure (noisy data for instance), considering only one single measurement would be very dangerous, since it might be extremely imprecise. However, if you measure 1000 times and take the average, the errors cancel out and you have a pretty accurate measurement :) https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HNQ3GccCAI0 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HNQ3GccCAI0
- culi 4y ago
  That's not wisdom of the crowds. That's just a big sample size Also, the video you posted points out a critical part of it working: diversity I think that's why an aggregation of independent pollsters, as few of them as there might be, often ends up giving us a more accurate prediction than the millions of users that engage in PredictIt or similar betting websites

TEP_Kim_Il_Sung 4y ago

Interview of trive founder, where he explains the process https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJDL-kaJ_sY https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJDL-kaJ_sY

TEP_Kim_Il_Sung 4y ago

The Wisdom of Crowds v.s. The Stupidity of Herds https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FuObIEngySA https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FuObIEngySA

TEP_Kim_Il_Sung 4y ago

BBC - The Wisdom of the Crowd (original experiment) https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iOucwX7Z1HU https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iOucwX7Z1HU