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This feels like a very privileged VC tech-centric from inside the bubble view of things, though I am admittedly no expert and left the tech world (for the most
by ambientenv 4y ago
This feels like a very privileged VC tech-centric from inside the bubble view of things, though I am admittedly no expert and left the tech world (for the most part) in 2010 - telecom and IT. There are many things that keep my over-active mind even more over-active and I cannot help but believe that because they are all so intricately and deeply intertwined, their impacts are beginning to be felt and will be increasingly disruptive and result in increasing discontinuities in 2023 and beyond. They are, in no particular order,
- war in Ukraine moving the doomsday clock closer to midnight
- we've likely reached the biophysical limits of earth
- ecological collapse with little real progress at COP15
- climate crisis with little progress of substance at COP27
- peak oil has passed
- the impending energy crisis - we have nothing on the horizon which can replace the energy density of a barrel of oil - and its impacts on shipping/transportation, the input side to industry and manufacturing, culture, society and expectations around quality of life
- problematic demographics (aging population) in many countries and its impacts on growth (as we've come to expect it) and consumption
- the end of the "Order", i.e. Bretton Woods and the unwinding of globalization
- populism, autocracy and authoritarianism, totalitarianism
- financial crises and the bill coming due for the fiat currency free-for-all and the hyperfinancial house of cards in places like China
- increasing discontent, depression and the rise of nihilism in may western countries
- the increase in truthiness and the misrepresentation and misuse of provably factual information
- neoliberalism
- CBDCs and increased government control
- AI
Perhaps normalcy bias is more prevalent than one would expect.
- pjscott 4y ago> we have nothing on the horizon which can replace the energy density of a barrel of oil This is in the vicinity of a good point, but as written it's false. Uranium has oil's energy density beat by a wide margin. And (at least if we're looking at naturally-occurring isotope ratios) thorium is at least 30x more energy dense. (Hydrocarbons are very nice as energy storage, of course, and can be produced in a carbon-neutral way if you throw enough energy at the problem.)
- ambientenv 4y agoFair point. Thanks. Perhaps I should have added, "that is not mired in controversy, misinformation and fear."