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It has been on a downward trend before covid19. For example, American life expectancy is lower than Cuban life expectancy.

yuliyp 4y ago
What? It's been steady at around 78.5 - 78.9 between 2010 and 2019 [1]. I'm not sure what the point of mentioning Cuba was or its relevance to trends in the US life expectancy is; its life expectancy has been within a year of the US for the past 40 years[2]. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/2020-2021/LExpMort.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/2020-2021/LExpMort.pdf [2] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?locations=CU-US https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?location...
- random314 4y ago
  Your own chart confirms my statement, inspite of the misapplied use of the adjective "steady", which you switched to from the "upward trend" you stated in your first comment. THERE IS NO UPWARD TREND. What was steady before 2014 is the INCREASE in life expectancy every year. The first derivative was steady. Now the first derivative has been negative and expectancy is only STEADY if you squint your eyes to lower the resolution of the data to 0.5 instead of 0.1 This is a clearer chart with delta measurements https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/life-expectancy https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/life... You can see the decline phase in red in the lower split. It's a marked shift from the continuous green line. To see it more clearly set the end date to 2018. You can clearly see from your own data that life expectancy peaked in the United States in 2014 and hasn't recovered yet. If the previous green trend had continued we would be at a life expectancy of 80.0 - not still short if the 2014 peak. The purpose of the example of Cuba is CONTRAST. How a lower income country with a higher baseline life expectancy continues to have a green trend i.e. life expectancy at year n+1 is more than year n - ALWAYS. https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CUB/cuba/life-expectancy https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CUB/cuba/life-expectan... It has not been "steady". It has reversed trends from a consistent increase in expectancy - green trend - every year since records have been kept. All changes in life expectancy are in the decimal range. Disguising the decline by specifying a range doesn't help.
  - yuliyp 4y ago
    You seem to have peculiar definitions of the words "falling" and "steady", which do not mean "decreasing" and "flat" respectively. The decade of the 2010s has a linear regression slope of -.008 years / year, well within the measurement error. I stand by my use of "steady" to describe that.
    - random314 4y ago
      You can put words in my mouth. But you claimed upward trend. I didn't. You switched it to steady. I did not. You picked arbitrary time windows and lowered the resolution, I did not. Your data contradicts your own thesis. Mine doesn't. Life expectancy increased every year in the united States peaking in 2014, when it reversed trends. We still haven't recovered to 2014 levels 8 years later. The data you shared validates my original comment which states that life expectancy was DECREASING before covid19. https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2022/life-expectancy-is-declining-in-the-us https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2022/life-expectancy-is-declini...

yuliyp 4y ago

What? It's been steady at around 78.5 - 78.9 between 2010 and 2019 [1]. I'm not sure what the point of mentioning Cuba was or its relevance to trends in the US life expectancy is; its life expectancy has been within a year of the US for the past 40 years[2]. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/2020-2021/LExpMort.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/2020-2021/LExpMort.pdf [2] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?locations=CU-US https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?location...

random314 4y ago
Your own chart confirms my statement, inspite of the misapplied use of the adjective "steady", which you switched to from the "upward trend" you stated in your first comment. THERE IS NO UPWARD TREND. What was steady before 2014 is the INCREASE in life expectancy every year. The first derivative was steady. Now the first derivative has been negative and expectancy is only STEADY if you squint your eyes to lower the resolution of the data to 0.5 instead of 0.1 This is a clearer chart with delta measurements https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/life-expectancy https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/life... You can see the decline phase in red in the lower split. It's a marked shift from the continuous green line. To see it more clearly set the end date to 2018. You can clearly see from your own data that life expectancy peaked in the United States in 2014 and hasn't recovered yet. If the previous green trend had continued we would be at a life expectancy of 80.0 - not still short if the 2014 peak. The purpose of the example of Cuba is CONTRAST. How a lower income country with a higher baseline life expectancy continues to have a green trend i.e. life expectancy at year n+1 is more than year n - ALWAYS. https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CUB/cuba/life-expectancy https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CUB/cuba/life-expectan... It has not been "steady". It has reversed trends from a consistent increase in expectancy - green trend - every year since records have been kept. All changes in life expectancy are in the decimal range. Disguising the decline by specifying a range doesn't help.
- yuliyp 4y ago
  You seem to have peculiar definitions of the words "falling" and "steady", which do not mean "decreasing" and "flat" respectively. The decade of the 2010s has a linear regression slope of -.008 years / year, well within the measurement error. I stand by my use of "steady" to describe that.
  - random314 4y ago
    You can put words in my mouth. But you claimed upward trend. I didn't. You switched it to steady. I did not. You picked arbitrary time windows and lowered the resolution, I did not. Your data contradicts your own thesis. Mine doesn't. Life expectancy increased every year in the united States peaking in 2014, when it reversed trends. We still haven't recovered to 2014 levels 8 years later. The data you shared validates my original comment which states that life expectancy was DECREASING before covid19. https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2022/life-expectancy-is-declining-in-the-us https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2022/life-expectancy-is-declini...