I don't know Fred's predictions, but just having skin in the game does not indicate truthful or quality forecasts. It may even be a detriment to quality predic

I don't know Fred's predictions, but just having skin in the game does not indicate truthful or quality forecasts. It may even be a detriment to quality predictions as you reverse engineer stories to rationalize your positions or worse, try to move markets and take advantage of the result if your megaphone is big enough - https://youtu.be/jaGU0FrrXcQ https://youtu.be/jaGU0FrrXcQ.