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Disagree on a few counts in no particular order. Climate: Big oil is back as Exxon and Chevron record record profits and plan share buybacks for the next 5 yea
by mmaunder 4y ago
Disagree on a few counts in no particular order.
Climate: Big oil is back as Exxon and Chevron record record profits and plan share buybacks for the next 5 years with their cash firehose. This reflects the reality that just 4% of car production in the US is EV, no matter anyone’s preferences.
Web3 is dead, thank god. Long live blockchain and other exciting cryptographic tech that will create fundamental value.
The VC market I am not part of as an investor or raiser. But now that we are seeing the highest interest rates in most investor’s lifetime, there are many attractive alternatives to startups and startups have become riskier with the cost of borrowing increased. So I predict a wave of failures as private companies aren’t able to raise at their risk level and fail.
I think large tech stocks will go sideways at best, for the next year at least, as the ending of global QE dries up liquidity and that lack of liquidity and high interest rates are reflected in the market overall. PEs of 60 or more are a thing of the past.
I also think that negative net income tech is in for a massive fall because risk is off and strong cash flow is on.
Central banks may not stop raising rates in early 2023 and at the very least QE is over. This is a tectonic global macro shift that is going to result in short and medium term instability and several large organizational and systemic failures around the world in 2023.