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Most recessions are identified after they've occurred, particularly on a global scale, since the evidence is rarely obvious. Not all countries, industries, stat

• SantalBlush 4y ago
  While this is true, the statement "We don't know that we're not in a recession" is not evidence that we're in a recession. Looking at the evidence that we do currently have--GDP, unemployment, etc.--that evidence strongly suggests that we are not in one.
  • Izkata 4y ago
    The low unemployment rate indicates we're likely either in or about to start a recession. It generally doesn't spike until months after recessions begin: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
    • dragonwriter 4y ago
      > The low unemployment rate indicates we’re likely either in or about to start a recession. Sure, I mean, we might only be ~4 years from a recession (see 1966). It's true that, as recession is defined roughly as the period of decline from an economic peak, they usually start during a period of low unemployment, but that doesn't mean low unemployment signals being in a recession. Most low unemployment periods are outside of recessions. > It generally doesn’t spike until months after recessions begin Every recession shown on that chart either begins simultaneously with or after sustained unemployment increases, I don’t see any where it lags significantly. There are several places where the low unemployment plateau before a recession is extended, and even a couple where an apparent low plateau is followed by another drop and another plateau.
      • Izkata 4y ago
        Take a look at the comment I was responding to, as well as some others on this page: It's a common misconception that the unemployment rate spikes (spikes, not fluctuates slightly higher) before recessions. It doesn't.
        • dragonwriter 4y ago
          The fact that you were responding to an incorrect description does not make your description that “The low unemployment rate indicates we’re likely either in or about to start a recession” correct. 1+1=3 is wrong, but that doesn’t make the response “1+1 is actually 1” correct.
          • Izkata 4y ago
            Allow me to repeat: spikes, not fluctuates slightly higher. 1948, 1953, 1960, 1974, 1980, 2001, and 2008 all fit what I said. 1957, 1970, 1981, and kind-of 1990 are the exceptions. As for the extended low unemployment... If you ignore the covid anomaly (as most people seem to since it wasn't a natural market reaction but caused by lockdowns), we're at the same 3 years of the previous maximum duration.
        • SantalBlush 4y ago
          >It's a common misconception that the unemployment rate spikes (spikes, not fluctuates slightly higher) before recessions I'm not talking about using the unemployment rate as a leading indicator, which is what you're describing here.
          • Izkata 4y ago
            > > that evidence strongly suggests that we are not in one The unemployment part can't indicate current state either because it usually doesn't spike until months afterwards. We can easily be in a recession with unemployment still being low.
            • 4y ago
• verisimi 4y ago
  We need to get some crossover between virologists and economists. Virologists always seem to know when pandemics are coming.
  • verisimi 4y ago
    Or climatologists for that matter.
  • hdjjhhvvhga 4y ago
    This is not a bad analogy. I remember at least one time when virologists announced a pandemic too early and were criticized for it later, and at least one time when they waited for too long.
• AnimalMuppet 4y ago
  This is kind of obvious if you take the amateur-level definition of a recession - two quarters of negative economic growth. A month after the end of the second quarter, when the statistics for that quarter become available, then you know that a recession started two quarters ago.