5 ms·

Signs I look for of an impending recession: Stagnation. Inflation is a sign of a booming economy. Unemployment. I see help wanted signs everywhere Huge buildi

Signs I look for of an impending recession: Stagnation. Inflation is a sign of a booming economy. Unemployment. I see help wanted signs everywhere Huge building projects abandoned. Here in SE Michigan I am seeing active construction sites everywhere. The Economist runs headlines like "Are Recessions a Thing of the Past?

senda 4y ago
I have the same thoughts. However I would say, why are there so many endless help wanted signs? Probably because the jobs don't provide enough income to be sustainable. I think the system currently is wabbling as employers are failing to keep rate with inflation in regards to pay. This will cause a bottleneck in regards to growth/performance for many businesses and ultimately be their downfall.
- dingusdew 4y ago
  This is absolutely the case. Federal minimum wage is $7.25 an hour. There is literally not anywhere in the country where you can pay for a studio apartment at that pay. Better hope you can scrape together five roommates in a three bedroom. People have figured out that the cost of going to low-wage jobs like that is more than it is worth. The number of parents who realized they actually brought more money home by one parent quitting their job and taking care of the kids instead of paying for childcare while they work is high. A lot of folks, after COVID, and seeing that business owners literally didn't give one fuck if they died on the job or not, decided that maybe living their life was more important than grinding at a job that will happily send you to your death to make a buck.
  - jjeaff 4y ago
    I think the $600/week unemployment boost was really a catalyst for a lot of this too. It finally gave so many low wage workers just a minute to breathe and reflect and not worry about their next paycheck. And those few weeks of breathing room was enough to sort of break people out of the rat race and give them time to reevaluate what they want to do. Poverty is very mentally taxing and it can make a huge difference if you have a minute to stop and plan out your life a little bit.
- dumpsterlid 4y ago
  Because large corporations are essentially trying to tear up the implicit contract that they must offer adequate compensation to attract workers to their jobs. "Nurse shortages" "Truck Driver shortages" "Railworker shortages" "Airplane Pilot shortages". None of these are actually shortages, they are just indications that the businesses involved in those industries are uninterested in offering wages and benefits that will humanely support someone working those jobs. I am no fan of capitalism, but this isnt even capitalism its just an attempt to bash workers into jobs they wouldnt otherwise take (or make it so 18 year olds can drive 18 wheelers commercially....?)
simonh 4y ago
> Inflation is the sign of a booming economy. Or it can be an economy that’s fiscally out of control, or it can be a deeply unproductive economy. There are many possible causes, some of which can be simultaneous. Plenty of countries have had massive inflation without in any way booming. If you read the article, you’ll find that all the factors you mention are discussed. > The Economist runs headlines like "Are Recessions a Thing of the Past? They ran that because some economists were making that claim. Their conclusion was that they aren’t.
frankfrankfrank 4y ago
I think you should reconsider the position that inflation is a sign of a booming economy. It is an erroneous albeit common perception and perspective. Inflation, the fraud of increasing the number of IOU Currency tokens called {fill in your currency of choice} in circulation simply by copying them is the cause of increasing prices, not inflation itself. It’s a matter of misunderstood definition. An analogy is an artist that puts out a limited edition print, lets say 100, and then realizes that he can make more money if he just prints 2 of each numbered edition, so there are two 1/100. That is inflation and the means of its fraud is the government “printing” more money, and thereby defrauding the people who have the currency based on the prior value. It’s just common fraud on a ruling class scale with no one to hold the psychopathic common con artists ant the top accountable. The Fed (among others) are just people scheming to commit fraud against the people who produce the value. Usually they just keep the fraud at a level that skims a certain low percentage that they get away with and no one notices when everyone is fat and happy, but they always get greedy and desperate when the Ponzi scheme they are running starts tipping over.
- throwawayoaky 4y ago
  found the goldbug. afaict inflation is great for indebted earners, bad for savers. Still waiting to learn why hoarding tokens is socially beneficial behavior that should be rewarded. Sorry you can't predict the future of your stuff just by putting it in a contract. But nobody promised you that, and there are bigger problems to solve than the perfect autonomy of your resources. I guess your only hope is that the limited, motivated, holders of extremely large bags of capital will be able to move your regressive philosophy forward. Oh look that's what happening lucky you.
  - jshahahlsba 4y ago
    > Still waiting to learn why hoarding tokens is socially beneficial behavior that should be rewarded. As opposed to squandering it all as soon as it is earned on the proverbial avocado toasts and dying in ignominious penury?
    - 4y ago
gruez 4y ago
>Signs I look for of an impending recession: >Stagnation. Inflation is a sign of a booming economy That's not borne out by the data. If you look at the graph for inflation[1], you see that falling inflation comes after recessions (helpfully shaded grey), not before. In other words, by the time you see stagflation, you're already deep in recession, or it has already passed. Therefore using it as a sign for "impending" recession makes no sense. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA
- Izkata 4y ago
  Likewise the spikes in unemployment, they happen after the recessions begin: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

senda 4y ago

I have the same thoughts. However I would say, why are there so many endless help wanted signs? Probably because the jobs don't provide enough income to be sustainable. I think the system currently is wabbling as employers are failing to keep rate with inflation in regards to pay. This will cause a bottleneck in regards to growth/performance for many businesses and ultimately be their downfall.

dingusdew 4y ago
This is absolutely the case. Federal minimum wage is $7.25 an hour. There is literally not anywhere in the country where you can pay for a studio apartment at that pay. Better hope you can scrape together five roommates in a three bedroom. People have figured out that the cost of going to low-wage jobs like that is more than it is worth. The number of parents who realized they actually brought more money home by one parent quitting their job and taking care of the kids instead of paying for childcare while they work is high. A lot of folks, after COVID, and seeing that business owners literally didn't give one fuck if they died on the job or not, decided that maybe living their life was more important than grinding at a job that will happily send you to your death to make a buck.
- jjeaff 4y ago
  I think the $600/week unemployment boost was really a catalyst for a lot of this too. It finally gave so many low wage workers just a minute to breathe and reflect and not worry about their next paycheck. And those few weeks of breathing room was enough to sort of break people out of the rat race and give them time to reevaluate what they want to do. Poverty is very mentally taxing and it can make a huge difference if you have a minute to stop and plan out your life a little bit.
dumpsterlid 4y ago
Because large corporations are essentially trying to tear up the implicit contract that they must offer adequate compensation to attract workers to their jobs. "Nurse shortages" "Truck Driver shortages" "Railworker shortages" "Airplane Pilot shortages". None of these are actually shortages, they are just indications that the businesses involved in those industries are uninterested in offering wages and benefits that will humanely support someone working those jobs. I am no fan of capitalism, but this isnt even capitalism its just an attempt to bash workers into jobs they wouldnt otherwise take (or make it so 18 year olds can drive 18 wheelers commercially....?)

simonh 4y ago

> Inflation is the sign of a booming economy. Or it can be an economy that’s fiscally out of control, or it can be a deeply unproductive economy. There are many possible causes, some of which can be simultaneous. Plenty of countries have had massive inflation without in any way booming. If you read the article, you’ll find that all the factors you mention are discussed. > The Economist runs headlines like "Are Recessions a Thing of the Past? They ran that because some economists were making that claim. Their conclusion was that they aren’t.

frankfrankfrank 4y ago

I think you should reconsider the position that inflation is a sign of a booming economy. It is an erroneous albeit common perception and perspective. Inflation, the fraud of increasing the number of IOU Currency tokens called {fill in your currency of choice} in circulation simply by copying them is the cause of increasing prices, not inflation itself. It’s a matter of misunderstood definition. An analogy is an artist that puts out a limited edition print, lets say 100, and then realizes that he can make more money if he just prints 2 of each numbered edition, so there are two 1/100. That is inflation and the means of its fraud is the government “printing” more money, and thereby defrauding the people who have the currency based on the prior value. It’s just common fraud on a ruling class scale with no one to hold the psychopathic common con artists ant the top accountable. The Fed (among others) are just people scheming to commit fraud against the people who produce the value. Usually they just keep the fraud at a level that skims a certain low percentage that they get away with and no one notices when everyone is fat and happy, but they always get greedy and desperate when the Ponzi scheme they are running starts tipping over.

throwawayoaky 4y ago
found the goldbug. afaict inflation is great for indebted earners, bad for savers. Still waiting to learn why hoarding tokens is socially beneficial behavior that should be rewarded. Sorry you can't predict the future of your stuff just by putting it in a contract. But nobody promised you that, and there are bigger problems to solve than the perfect autonomy of your resources. I guess your only hope is that the limited, motivated, holders of extremely large bags of capital will be able to move your regressive philosophy forward. Oh look that's what happening lucky you.
- jshahahlsba 4y ago
  > Still waiting to learn why hoarding tokens is socially beneficial behavior that should be rewarded. As opposed to squandering it all as soon as it is earned on the proverbial avocado toasts and dying in ignominious penury?
  - 4y ago

gruez 4y ago

>Signs I look for of an impending recession: >Stagnation. Inflation is a sign of a booming economy That's not borne out by the data. If you look at the graph for inflation[1], you see that falling inflation comes after recessions (helpfully shaded grey), not before. In other words, by the time you see stagflation, you're already deep in recession, or it has already passed. Therefore using it as a sign for "impending" recession makes no sense. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA

Izkata 4y ago
Likewise the spikes in unemployment, they happen after the recessions begin: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE