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>>>In a hot war with a capable near-peer, the carriers will be sunk right away (possibility every single one of them). The USN has plans to limit the risk to t

>>>In a hot war with a capable near-peer, the carriers will be sunk right away (possibility every single one of them). The USN has plans to limit the risk to the carriers, but most of those also limit the usefulness extensively. Even still, a maneuvering and properly-escorted CVN is not an easy target. >>Seems like the focus should be on the stealthy underwater stuff that can pop up and deliver payloads like missiles and drones but what do I know. I fully expect our submarine force to do most of the heavy lifting, especially in the critical early months of a hot war with China. But the problem is their limited ordnance. USS Ohio after her SSGN conversion only carries ~150 Tomahawks @$2 MILLION per missile for Block V versions. So that's 150 targets, max, before she has to slink away from the conflict zone and find a resupply ship or port. A Nimitz has a sustained sortie generation rate of ~80 sorties per day, and while I can't say what their typical ammo stores are, the carrier air wing should have more than enough bombs and guided munitions to strike 150 targets, and many targets can be prosecuted with fairly cheap JDAMs, SDBs, Mavericks, etc...

rtkwe 4y ago
A big issue is there's not really been a peer on peer large air battle until very recently in Ukraine and that's shown how difficult it is against an even mildly capable air defense system to deploy and use jets to deliver those cheaper munitions. The complete dominance of the US Airforce has been against pretty soft targets with Iraq being the only real air defense challenge but that's nothing compared to what it would face in China or Russia.
- CapricornNoble 4y ago
  I absolutely expect us to not achieve our usual Air Dominance when this fight with China inevitably goes kinetic. While our pilots still possess the essential skills and munitions to peel back an Integrated Air-Defense System (seems the Russians lack both of those), I don't think we are prepared for the ridiculous numerical disparity we will face here in the First Island Chain, combined with the reasonable qualitative parity of Chinese assets.
  - cpursley 4y ago
    If the data is correct, Russian integrated air defense is better than what the US or west can muster at the moment (just read up a little on these systems and how they integrate, Russians math good). They might suck at practically everything else, but not air defense. This is pretty widely acknowledged by western experts. In fact, the old S-300s and Buks in Ukraine have been pretty effective and probably what spooks the Russians from using their air force in mass. Even those old systems are probably better than the Patriot for a lot of tasks. There's even been talks of sending more S-300s from Greece because they work and Ukraine knows how to operate them.
    - LargoLasskhyfv 4y ago
      > There's even been talks of sending more S-300s from Greece because they work and Ukraine knows how to operate them. That would be unwise from a Greek perspective, because of Erdolfs ambitions and posture.
    - CapricornNoble 4y ago
      I re-read my post and I can see that it is unclear. I meant the Russians lack trained PILOTS, not that they lack decent IADS. I agree that Russian/Soviet SAMs are overall pretty damn good, and deserve to be respected. I think Soviet doctrine of robust air defenses at all ranges/capability levels is proving prescient. The US in particular finally realized they need to play catch-up when it comes to SHORAD.
  - scarmig 4y ago
    Speaking more generally, I'm curious to hear what your speculations are in terms of a war with China. Most people seem to think it'll be a walk in the park for either the US or China, but I think it'll end up a kind of stalemate, with China and Taiwan both facing extreme privation from sea blockades, the Strait and SCS being a charnel house, and the world experiencing a massive economic disruption; domestic politics in democratic states would determine the terms of the final resolution.
    - CapricornNoble 4y ago
- runnerup 4y ago
  The USA still has no peers, only "near-peers".

rtkwe 4y ago

A big issue is there's not really been a peer on peer large air battle until very recently in Ukraine and that's shown how difficult it is against an even mildly capable air defense system to deploy and use jets to deliver those cheaper munitions. The complete dominance of the US Airforce has been against pretty soft targets with Iraq being the only real air defense challenge but that's nothing compared to what it would face in China or Russia.

CapricornNoble 4y ago
I absolutely expect us to not achieve our usual Air Dominance when this fight with China inevitably goes kinetic. While our pilots still possess the essential skills and munitions to peel back an Integrated Air-Defense System (seems the Russians lack both of those), I don't think we are prepared for the ridiculous numerical disparity we will face here in the First Island Chain, combined with the reasonable qualitative parity of Chinese assets.
- cpursley 4y ago
  If the data is correct, Russian integrated air defense is better than what the US or west can muster at the moment (just read up a little on these systems and how they integrate, Russians math good). They might suck at practically everything else, but not air defense. This is pretty widely acknowledged by western experts. In fact, the old S-300s and Buks in Ukraine have been pretty effective and probably what spooks the Russians from using their air force in mass. Even those old systems are probably better than the Patriot for a lot of tasks. There's even been talks of sending more S-300s from Greece because they work and Ukraine knows how to operate them.
  - LargoLasskhyfv 4y ago
    > There's even been talks of sending more S-300s from Greece because they work and Ukraine knows how to operate them. That would be unwise from a Greek perspective, because of Erdolfs ambitions and posture.
  - CapricornNoble 4y ago
    I re-read my post and I can see that it is unclear. I meant the Russians lack trained PILOTS, not that they lack decent IADS. I agree that Russian/Soviet SAMs are overall pretty damn good, and deserve to be respected. I think Soviet doctrine of robust air defenses at all ranges/capability levels is proving prescient. The US in particular finally realized they need to play catch-up when it comes to SHORAD.
- scarmig 4y ago
  Speaking more generally, I'm curious to hear what your speculations are in terms of a war with China. Most people seem to think it'll be a walk in the park for either the US or China, but I think it'll end up a kind of stalemate, with China and Taiwan both facing extreme privation from sea blockades, the Strait and SCS being a charnel house, and the world experiencing a massive economic disruption; domestic politics in democratic states would determine the terms of the final resolution.
  - CapricornNoble 4y ago
runnerup 4y ago
The USA still has no peers, only "near-peers".