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Russia will win in Ukraine. It will probably result from some sort of prolonged general strike in an utterly exhausted Ukraine. The only modern war that Ukrai

Russia will win in Ukraine. It will probably result from some sort of prolonged general strike in an utterly exhausted Ukraine. The only modern war that Ukraine is comparable to, IMHO, is the Second Congo war. All the powers around it rush in to grab the resources of a destabilized country with the infrastructure getting obliterated and a huge humanitarian problem. AI will march forward completely unimpeded by law or regulation. A new AI bubble reminiscent of the early internet boom will start to form. "I use ChatGPT in my development workflow" will become the new "I know HTML." Crowdfunding for training open source models will be common. Someone will train a porn generating stable diffusion causing a moral outcry. Oil production will fall slightly. The oil price will start to rise. Tesla trucks will launch and be immensely popular. Battery production will continue to be a big concern. Coal will continue to do well, surprising everyone. Housing will continue to crash. This will delay a lot of redevelopment in San Francisco and other downtowns. That will start when interest rates fall again. That will be in 2024 or later. India and Mexico will do well. China will see significant death because of COVID. Europe will continue to deindustrialize. The aftermath of the Ukraine war might cause serious political realignments. Biotech will advance dramatically, but will receive little press. Stem cell treatments will go mainstream. Google will fail to redesign their business or even come out with a sophisticated chatbot AI product because their corporate culture can't handle the social political risks of AI. They can't even handle the risks of their employees believing It's alive. Larry Page and Sergei will continue to stay disengaged from the business, though one might give an interview lamenting the hyperpolitization of the company. Metaverse hype will continue. No one will care. Crypto, mainly Bitcoin, will continue to trudge along and absorb most of the volume. It will become an enemy currency in the U.S when Russia starts using it for payments. Food prices will continue to rise. There will be more Sri Lanka situations in which countries start experiencing extreme food insecurity. Vax backlash will not pick up any more than it already has. Murmurs of something very disturbing going on will continue beneath the surface. There will continue to be staffing shortages in the medical, airline, and public sector. Many new companies will be born to replace people with robots and automation in these industries. Alternative health will continue to grow in popularity, especially radically new approaches to healthcare. Regulations will be a problem, but people will get creative.

BetaDeltaAlpha 4y ago
> Someone will train a porn generating stable diffusion causing a moral outcry. Unstable Diffusion was already booted from kickstarter. These projects have been in motion since the summer.
matthewdgreen 4y ago
> Russia will win in Ukraine. It will probably result from some sort of prolonged general strike in an utterly exhausted Ukraine. What does “win” even mean here? Russia’s goal seems to be some kind of prolonged occupation of the majority of Ukraine’s territory. I’m not sure how that sort of occupation ever ends.
- narrator 4y ago
  The Russians can't negotiate with the Ukrainians, so their only alternative is total domination by violence. I think the west miscalculated how much the Russians had modernized and their war production capacity. The fight is much more difficult than they expected. The average Ukrainian is probably at the point where they feel Russian domination would be better than more years of war given the extreme measures men are taking to make it out of the country and avoid the draft. The average Ukrainian can't say anything about it though because the SBU will kill them.
  - matthewdgreen 4y ago
    This is a weird narrative. It is almost as though you have take every fact about the war and turned it on its head. 1. Russia can certainly end the war any time it wants. They can simply move their forces back behind historical borders. 2. I have no idea where you’re getting your ideas about what Ukraine believes. It seems that you may have read headlines about men fleeing Russia’s mobilization and find/replaced the word Ukraine. I don’t know if this is the famous “Russian propaganda trolling” we’re always reading about online, or if you’re just an amateur who spent too much time in the wrong corners of the Internet.
    - narrator 4y ago

BetaDeltaAlpha 4y ago

> Someone will train a porn generating stable diffusion causing a moral outcry. Unstable Diffusion was already booted from kickstarter. These projects have been in motion since the summer.

matthewdgreen 4y ago

> Russia will win in Ukraine. It will probably result from some sort of prolonged general strike in an utterly exhausted Ukraine. What does “win” even mean here? Russia’s goal seems to be some kind of prolonged occupation of the majority of Ukraine’s territory. I’m not sure how that sort of occupation ever ends.

narrator 4y ago
The Russians can't negotiate with the Ukrainians, so their only alternative is total domination by violence. I think the west miscalculated how much the Russians had modernized and their war production capacity. The fight is much more difficult than they expected. The average Ukrainian is probably at the point where they feel Russian domination would be better than more years of war given the extreme measures men are taking to make it out of the country and avoid the draft. The average Ukrainian can't say anything about it though because the SBU will kill them.
- matthewdgreen 4y ago
  This is a weird narrative. It is almost as though you have take every fact about the war and turned it on its head. 1. Russia can certainly end the war any time it wants. They can simply move their forces back behind historical borders. 2. I have no idea where you’re getting your ideas about what Ukraine believes. It seems that you may have read headlines about men fleeing Russia’s mobilization and find/replaced the word Ukraine. I don’t know if this is the famous “Russian propaganda trolling” we’re always reading about online, or if you’re just an amateur who spent too much time in the wrong corners of the Internet.
  - narrator 4y ago