10 ms·

Ask HN: What are your predictions for the world in 2023?

71 points by k2xl 4y ago

What are some bold predictions you have for next year?

gw67 4y ago
- Inflation will start a cycle trend. Next year down, then up again - Earning compressions - revenue compressions due to less wealth and consumer power Multi year recessions and inflation.
- throw_this_one 4y ago
  How inflation but also less consumer power?
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
ThomPete 4y ago
*First, the macro economic and political:* - The Ukraine war will either end with Russia withdrawing and gaining a few territories or a coup. - The US and China will step up the military presence around Taiwan. - China's covid situation is getting completely out of control. If it doesn't mutate into something dangerous, it will disappear as quickly as it spread. - AI will become one of the most politicized areas. The discussion will be about bias, copyright, AGI and creativity. - There are voices in AI skepticism, so politicians will try to legislate in the area, especially the EU. - San Francisco will continue to do away with its dysfunctional progressive legislation. - The European countries will burn more fossil fuels than in 2022. - Coal will be the "best performing commodity" (Denmark alone 7 doubled imports of coal in 2022). - Investments in the green transition will be sharply reduced and several completely shelved. - The housing market will crash (Already down 10% in the US in 2022). - Credit card and loan debt will hit an all-time high. - Savings will hit the lowest point in recent times. - Energy will become more expensive, which means everything else will become more expensive. - Most schools will ban AI, some of the more rational ones will implement it into their teaching. - India will continue to develop economically, socially, technologically and become a power player on an equal footing with China and the USA. - Most countries will see zero to minus growth (i.e. recession) - Nuclear power is becoming more popular than ever. - Many people's pension savings will be greatly reduced. *And now for the technological/startups related:* - Venture capital investments in AI-related software are breaking records because investors have total FOMO. - We will see a bloodbath of companies going bankrupt or being bought as talent acquisitions. - “What is our AI strategy?” replaces "What is our Big Data Strategy?" as the most important question a company can ask itself. - Google, one of the biggest investors in AI models and chips, will be one of the companies that will be forced to publish how they intend to use AI while not killing their existing business. - The number of new search engines based on AI will explode. - The number of "AI optimized" products will explode. - By far the AI companies will fail as early as 2023. - GPT-4 will either be multimodal or have more direct access to the Internet. - NFT's will continue their popularity in many areas that have not used them before. - Crypto will finally get clear regulatory rules in the US. - We will see some pretty big advances in bio-technology due to Crisper. Especially cancer research. - Sam Bankman Fried from FTX will either get life in prison or go completely free. - Twitter survives despite cutting 70% of the company by asking: “Who is exceptional and who is indispensable?”. - Blockchain and AI will be the new power couple. They need each other. One provides utility, the other identity. - Many other companies will do what Musk has done and cut their staff. - More crashes in the Crypto world. - Mastodon who? - Mr. Beast becomes new Twitter CEO. With this I would like to wish everyone a good 2023 and hope to see many of you around where I come.
- baal80spam 4y ago
  > With this I would like to wish everyone a good 2022 Too late!
  - ThomPete 4y ago
    LOL thanks. Fixed.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
0thgen 4y ago
chatbot search engines
wozer 4y ago
Big prediction thread from a week ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34125628 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34125628
- narrator 4y ago
  Did someone read the 2022 predictions thread and score it? If so, who were the big winners?
  - europeanguy 4y ago
    No, that's hard work. Just making predictions, on the other hand, is easy.
  - kylecazar 4y ago
    No, but I've skimmed. Lots of people got the higher probability things correct: -crypto plunge -queen dying -ukraine full invasion -etc
typingmonkey 4y ago
Zuckerberg will stop developing the metaverse.
- samwillis 4y ago
  I think it's too late, he bet the company on it and has no other long term plans. With the inevitable implosion of online advertising and the declining interest in FB properties I think they are going to show more signed of struggling next year.
- eastbound 4y ago
  Whatsapp will include a newsfeed before Zuckerberg ragequits the metaverse.
  - voisin 4y ago
    Messages presented out of chronological order so as not to interfere with the ad business.. can’t wait.
autophagian 4y ago
Mountains crumble, rivers change their course, new roads replace old, stones are buried and vanish into the earth, and 2023 will be the year of linux on the desktop.
- peterburkimsher 4y ago
  In North Korea, every year is the year of Linux on the desktop (Red Star OS).
rvz 4y ago
Other than predicting a crypto crash exactly a year ago [0] and warning everyone to run out of the market [1] to prepare for a market crash with the 'four horse men' telling me about a tech crash years ago [2], I'm still predicting that startups that don't turn a profit will be struggling to raise further capital by VCs to stay afloat in 2023. My crystal ball has done a long term prediction about other things in the decade [3] [4] and it seems to be slowly becoming true and somewhat very accurate. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29752372 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29752372 [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29508238 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29508238 [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20993919 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20993919 [3] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22663119 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22663119 [4] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21926473 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21926473
mbg721 4y ago
The Russia/Ukraine conflict will get more complicated, and other regional disputes will be tied to it, but it still won't break out into a hot war with the US or China.
- 323 4y ago
  Well, a hot war between Russia/US/China will last 30 minutes. So no need to stress over it.
samwillis 4y ago
Sticking to web tech (and reposting from twitter) my main prediction is a move away from “Rehydration” or “Resumability”, and a better understanding of holding state either on the server, or in the browser, (mostly) not both. HTMX becomes the fastest growing frontend toolkit in 2023 as devs feeling stack fatigue migrate from React and other JS toolkits towards a simpler architecture. A draft “HTML 6” spec is written incorporating ideas from HTMX and HATEOAS. Smaller front end JS toolkits like AlpineJS, "petite-vue", and HyperScript will explode in popularity, accelerated by the move towards basic server side html rendering. At the same time “offline first” and PWAs make giant leaps forward, off the back of WASM based SQLite and CRDT toolkits Yjs and Automerge. Offline first webapps will have their RoR/Django moment, a new BYOFE (bring your own frontend) framework based on SQLite in the browser, eventual consistency, and automatic schema migrations. Probably using Postgresql as the source of truth. There will be a move away from React Native back towards WebView based toolkits such as Capacitor and Tauri (I think Tauri will win over Electron in the long run), as people realise that a web view is just as performant. Complimented by strategic use of NativeScript. Ultimately there will be a split, if you need a fast initial reader and want simpler development, “HTML over the wire” and HATEOAS will become standard. No more “Rehydration” or “Resumability”. No more JSON APIs that are only ever used to render your html template. Alternatively if you are aiming for an app-like experience you will go “offline first” caching as much data on the client, implementing traditional server side functionality in the browser. Again no more “Rehydration” or “Resumability” as (almost) everything is client side. No more splitting state between client and server, just pick which side your particular product sits best in. (Originally posted in extended form here: https://mobile.twitter.com/samwillis/status/1608542221166587904 https://mobile.twitter.com/samwillis/status/1608542221166587...)
- moughxyz 4y ago
  > There will be a move away from React Native back towards WebView based toolkits such as Capacitor and Tauri (I think Tauri will win over Electron in the long run), as people realise that a web view is just as performant. Complimented by strategic use of NativeScript. Exactly what we did with Standard Notes. Never looked back. Wrote about what this looked like for us: https://blog.standardnotes.com/40921/no-react-native-is-not-the-future https://blog.standardnotes.com/40921/no-react-native-is-not-...
TylerLives 4y ago
We'll get a message from aliens, but no one will understand what it means.
- zikzak 4y ago
  again...
xwdv 4y ago
Someone that people loved very much will perish.
narrator 4y ago
Russia will win in Ukraine. It will probably result from some sort of prolonged general strike in an utterly exhausted Ukraine. The only modern war that Ukraine is comparable to, IMHO, is the Second Congo war. All the powers around it rush in to grab the resources of a destabilized country with the infrastructure getting obliterated and a huge humanitarian problem. AI will march forward completely unimpeded by law or regulation. A new AI bubble reminiscent of the early internet boom will start to form. "I use ChatGPT in my development workflow" will become the new "I know HTML." Crowdfunding for training open source models will be common. Someone will train a porn generating stable diffusion causing a moral outcry. Oil production will fall slightly. The oil price will start to rise. Tesla trucks will launch and be immensely popular. Battery production will continue to be a big concern. Coal will continue to do well, surprising everyone. Housing will continue to crash. This will delay a lot of redevelopment in San Francisco and other downtowns. That will start when interest rates fall again. That will be in 2024 or later. India and Mexico will do well. China will see significant death because of COVID. Europe will continue to deindustrialize. The aftermath of the Ukraine war might cause serious political realignments. Biotech will advance dramatically, but will receive little press. Stem cell treatments will go mainstream. Google will fail to redesign their business or even come out with a sophisticated chatbot AI product because their corporate culture can't handle the social political risks of AI. They can't even handle the risks of their employees believing It's alive. Larry Page and Sergei will continue to stay disengaged from the business, though one might give an interview lamenting the hyperpolitization of the company. Metaverse hype will continue. No one will care. Crypto, mainly Bitcoin, will continue to trudge along and absorb most of the volume. It will become an enemy currency in the U.S when Russia starts using it for payments. Food prices will continue to rise. There will be more Sri Lanka situations in which countries start experiencing extreme food insecurity. Vax backlash will not pick up any more than it already has. Murmurs of something very disturbing going on will continue beneath the surface. There will continue to be staffing shortages in the medical, airline, and public sector. Many new companies will be born to replace people with robots and automation in these industries. Alternative health will continue to grow in popularity, especially radically new approaches to healthcare. Regulations will be a problem, but people will get creative.
- BetaDeltaAlpha 4y ago
mandmandam 4y ago
1. Issues around Corona boosters will become more apparent. Reports and studies linking damaged immune and vascular systems to mRNA vaccinations will become more and more clear, until the whole "let's 'boost' children and young adults twice a year" push gets quietly dropped altogether. 2. This won't lead to any impactful accountability or reform. 3. Referencing new health studies will be considered 'impolite', and 'conspiracy-adjacent', as will any discussion of corruption or profiteering.
- version_five 4y ago
  I don't know if I agree with your first point, but I definitely agree that it will become harder to ignore all the harm of the over-reaction to covid, but society will keep its head in the sand as much as possible and chastise anyone who points out any ongoing negative consequences as an anti-whatever or conspirationist
DukeIgnas 4y ago
Apache Kafka to fall out of favor in HN
- timeon 4y ago
  Franz will be first association again.
Simon_O_Rourke 4y ago
Pakistan to completely destabilize following more climate change driven natural disaster and start some limited border war along the line of control to try and shore up popular support at home. The UK to slide into a deep depression, and lose much financial stability and jobs related to city trading houses moving to the EU. Northern Ireland to hold a border poll about rejoining the EU through a United Ireland. Russian forces to continue digging in, exhausting Ukrainian attacks and causing a military stalemate and political deadlock. The Russian economy to continue to slide, corruption and gangsterism to encroach more on society there. Saudi Arabia to attempt further sports washing to improve their international image. Some unlikely sports final to be hosted in Riyadh. Vietnam to continue to crush the GDP growth rate, and start taking over some serious tech production from the likes of Shenzhen. Chinese COVID deaths to become a state secret, and the economy there to shrink while other Asian countries pick up the slack. The GOP to split into pro and anti Trump factions, with the anti Trump faction to make some massively authoritarian laws to win over red state voters.
- onetokeoverthe 4y ago
  [dead]
1attice 4y ago
My predictions for 2023-2030 2023 will be a year of endings and beginnings. The endings will be dramatic and the beginnings will only be understood in hindsight. Here's what happens. The collapse continues, manifesting now as a culture war that goes floor-by-floor throughout every industry. Twitter, sure, but everywhere, now, and faster. 2022's incredible advances in AI diffuse through civil society. Awareness that some fundamental contract with the nature of the world is straining, is perhaps breaking, seeps through the groundwater of the collective unconscious. This growing unease at the idea of productive capitalism without mass employment eventually becomes the stand-out story of the decade. Along with climate change, of course, which is now much harder to address, because democratic consensus becomes impossible because of the proliferation of bots and AI-gen propaganda. Over the ensuing decade, politics polarize even further, but there is also a second faultline, running on a sort of diagonal, between naturalist/ecologist/conservationist sensibility on one side, and technologist/rationalist/transhumanist ideology on the other. For example, a serious ecologist might reject (say) AI and euthanasia (neither being wholesomely natural), while still mostly voting in a left-aligned bloc; meanwhile a conservative might endorse science-based medicines and vaccines. Eventually this will seem normal, but in 2022 people will still be surprising each other. But maybe this is too fine-grained. Perhaps it is enough to say that, in 2023, the creeping sense of dread you've had for the past half-decade comes closer to a head, but not so close that you can actually be rid of it. That will come in 2025, after the bitter election, or 2030-ish if you make it that far. For now, rest up.
digitalsushi 4y ago
ML chat agents will pollute community forum spaces enough to start to turn humans away out of exhaustion they are the only person present
version_five 4y ago
Generative AI will turn into a crypto style echo chamber, where no meaningful business cases emerge but a bunch of true believers cant stop talking about how game changing it is. Deloitte will develop a generative AI consulting practice. The world will start to move on.
- jatins 4y ago
  Generative AI is already past the utility that Crypto ever had. Copywriting industry is going to be AI powered going forward, Copilot is widely loved by programmers and generative images are also finding utility in things like AI powered logo makers.
  - happymellon 4y ago
    Copilot is massively polarising. Aside from that, I think that we are at a crossroads with Generative AI. ChatGPT is amazing, but that's because it's sources are all human. What happens when Stack overflow gets a load of copypasta from these ChatBots, we already can see some small logic bugs in outputs and when it starts to see itself, or other lower quality bots, churning out buggy code will that impact it? We could enter an era where developers become the person who can best express a technical requirement for ChatGPT to spit out working code. Or we could become proofreaders. The people reading all the outputs and fixing the bugs that are generated from the bots, the best coders are those with the most experience with crappy outputs and can fix what the bot meant to do.
    - tremon 4y ago
      What happens when Stack overflow gets a load of copypasta from these ChatBots This happens: https://meta.stackoverflow.com/questions/421831/temporary-policy-chatgpt-is-banned https://meta.stackoverflow.com/questions/421831/temporary-po... > The primary problem is that while the answers which ChatGPT produces have a high rate of being incorrect, they typically look like they might be good and the answers are very easy to produce
      - 4y ago
cpsns 4y ago
Things will get worse.
- heresjohnny 4y ago
  Hear me out – things will get better!
whywhywouldyou 4y ago
At the end of the year, someone will make a generic post on HN asking what my predictions for 2024 are. And I will again wonder why it made it to the front page of HN.
- mellosouls 4y ago
  TBF I'm pretty sure they aren't just asking you.
iso1631 4y ago
See last week's https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34125628 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34125628 (781 comments)
logicchains 4y ago
Academic research like https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciimmunol.ade2798 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciimmunol.ade2798 and https://www.mdpi.com/2414-6366/7/8/196 https://www.mdpi.com/2414-6366/7/8/196 will finally make it into the mainstream and people on the left will begin to acknowledge that there are nontrivial risks associated with the mRNA vaccines. Trump will continue to defend operation warp speed, and more conservatives will defect to DeSantis.
- barbazoo 4y ago
  Can someone ELI5 please what that first link is talking about?
  - wrycoder 4y ago
    The bivalent vaccines are less effective than expected, due to a change in the type of antibodies induced.
    - barbazoo 4y ago
      Thank you. So it's not really about "nontrivial risks associated with the mRNA vaccines" as suggested in the comment I responded to. They might not have understood the paper either. Thanks again.
sidcool 4y ago
Programming and software development will change drastically over the next few years. It will no longer remain a niche skill. Product managers will be able to code up things.
- zikzak 4y ago
  Please don't take away my ability to feel smug because I told a bunch of other people what to do and they mostly did it. I can't go back to doing things myself, I just can't.
pg_bot 4y ago
- The mRNA vaccine for HIV will be successful. - Cryptocurrency will continue fading into irrelevance. - Russia continues to throw the kitchen sink at Ukraine, but will lose ground in the Zaporizhzhia oblast. The war will be effectively over after the Ukranians recapture Melitopol. - Belarus will revolt and Lukashenko will be exiled to Russia. - Biden dies of natural causes. - Inflation in the US will continue to fall back down to the expected 2% rate. - Blitzscaling falls out of favor as more venture capitalists focus on fundamentals and due diligence. - The next wave of big tech companies will be founded in cities that are not known for being tech hubs.
- throw_this_one 4y ago
  If Biden passed that might be catastrophic
swader999 4y ago
SBF, Clinton, Trump, Fauci will remain out of jail.
rustymonday 4y ago
We will find Atlantis.
jl6 4y ago
Microsoft will buy Meta. Oracle will buy IBM. Amazon will buy Sony.
- voisin 4y ago
  #2 and 3 I could see but #1 seems impossible. /s?
  - jl6 4y ago
    Well, I’m responding to the direction to be bold, so it’s not that I think these are slam dunk acquisitions, but they are halfway plausible and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them happen. Amazon is hungry for content and needs a gaming play. IBM is in long-term stagnation and Oracle has a more aggressive vision of owning “The Enterprise”. Microsoft already has a stake in Meta, and I expect the price of Meta to freefall once they abandon the metaverse gamble. Microsoft could pick up the pieces and exploit the value of the network. They did it with Linkedin and they would just love to own consumer social/messaging and a big slice of the ad-targeting pie with which to challenge Google.
Raed667 4y ago
1- Generative AI: - The ecosystem will be flooded by crypto/NFT refugees and startups looking for business models will raise absurd amounts of money while the rest of us wonder if the world turned stupid again. - Generative AI will result in obnoxious chat-bots and customer-support SaaS that will make the entire process even more kafkaesque. - Developers will be able to just `npm install` their way into ML without having to learn the fundamentals 2- Augmented Reality: - We will see A/R glasses from Apple, with privacy as a selling point. - Zuckerberg will quietly and slowly drop the meta-verse and resume investing in Instagram as it fades away from cultural relevance. 3- Algorithms: - Algorithms will be the de-facto and ultimate judge of character. If Tiktok says you like water-polo, that means deep inside you like water-polo. 4- Musk: - Twitter will be assigned a ridiculous CEO and will start a 3 year dive out of media/culture relevance as Gen-Z don’t care for it. - Tesla stock will continue to drop, as more established companies build better EVs more reliable and with better quality. 5- Social media: - Mastodon will be successful, but nothing like Twitter or Facebook. The intended lack of features and fragmentation will prevent it from being a network for viral content or events. - TikTok will lose creators to YouTube, especially if they don’t fix their monetization and bots problems. 6- Software development: - React will continue to rule as the web platform at least for another few years, but the momentum will slow. - Next.js will overshadow Remix, as the latter doesn’t offer enough competitive advantage to sway away users. - SvelteKit will be the fastest growing framework but it will be mostly for smaller/hobby projects. - Despite the initial hype, Rome tools, Deno & Bun will be quasi abandoned as the ecosystem outpaces their release cycle and the benefits don’t merit the headache of migration. - Rust will leak in most software tooling and we will see attempts at a Django-like framework.
- schwartzworld 4y ago
  Regarding augmented reality, I think that necessity to be in cameras on Zoom calls all day is a perfect use case for it: Live deepfake masks. Do your hair and makeup once, scan yourself, and then you can hide behind your own (or someone else's) digital visage.
tmaly 4y ago
I think housing prices will come down a bit more in the US. The FED is walking a fine line with interest rates. I predict they will have to backtrack and lower the rates in the second half of 2023. I think the new 3nm process from TSMC will help to accelerate new NVIDIA cards to support GPT like AI, but TSMC will have to rapidly expand fabs outside of Taiwan to offset the risk from China.
kjellsbells 4y ago
1. The next wave of social. FB is dead. Twitter is imploding. The govt is trying to get rid of TikTok. Mastodon is too hardcore for your mom in peoria. But there's still a need, and someone is going to figure it out. So 2023 will see a flowering of ideas most of which will die and one of which will win. 2. Investors move into water. The US Southwest is at a crunch point now. Its not so much that people have seen evidence that makes them want to change as seeing evidence that there is money to be made trading rights to water. I actually thing water wars are a megatrend, but even if Im wrong there, the situation out west is dire. 3. There will be an implosion in corporate real estate as leases terminate. Some downtowns will collapse.
trash3 4y ago
[dead]
moose_man 4y ago
China and the United States will have one military incident next year that will bring us breathtakingly close to war.
leke 4y ago
My prediction for the web is that this will be the year of HTMX. My prediction for the war is that Russia will have full mobilisation. 2023 will not be the year for disclosure. 2023 will not be the year for the adoption of an international language.
gw67 4y ago
The new ChatGTP will create lots of shitty spam over the internet.
the_doctah 4y ago
The woke ideology problem will only get worse.
hulitu 4y ago
The US will be pushing hard for WW3.
HelixEndeavor 4y ago
The U.S. economy will fall even more steeply into depression, the housing market bubble will pop, and it will be incredibly hard for a time, but will ultimately be good for most.
- throw_this_one 4y ago
  Why would the Fed let that happen?
welcome_dragon 4y ago
Johnny Silverhand will blow up Arasaka Tower
alkonaut 4y ago
Nothing hoppens in Russia, although it’s even closer to collapse than now. Happening any day. The war in Ukraine continues and Ukraine is slowly winning. Vladimir Putin is still in power but is rumored to be losing his grip. Nothing happens legally to Donald Trump, although he’s even closer to bad things happening. Twitter doesn’t collapse but is on the brink of financial ruin. Will collapse any day.
unixbotnuke 4y ago
-Elon Musk is ousted from Tesla/SpaceX; TSLA <$50 -Trump dies of heart failure -New COVID strain from the USA -Housing bubble pops
JEDI-HACKER 4y ago
I believe Skynet will takeover, release the zombies. While AI will be making useless TikTok video's. Definitely will be another global lockdown.
TechBro8615 4y ago
- Bitcoin passes $50k and continues rising through $100k shortly before the next halvening in March 2024 - One of Biden, Trump or Putin dies of natural causes. Approximately 50% of people do not believe the official story. - A NATO base is hit with a Russian missile, leading to increased saber rattling but ultimately not to any full-scale war - There is no peace agreement in Ukraine but there is a temporary cease-fire which is eventually broken by a rogue faction of the Ukrainian military - Excess deaths continue above pre-2021 levels - China does not invade Taiwan, but there are large scale protests in one of Taiwan or Hong Kong. - TikTok is not banned - Twitter does not crash. By the end of the year there is news that Musk is shopping around to take it public again. - Civil unrest in Egypt is violently oppressed but there is no change in power - There is a tragic accident in the Space travel industry - Zuckerberg steps down as CEO of Meta - Jack Dorsey returns as CEO of Twitter - At least one major VPN provider is found to be operated or sponsored by a US intelligence agency - A new social network becomes popular after introducing an alternative means of consuming news stories
- throw_this_one 4y ago
  Why bitcoin back up?
  - TechBro8615 4y ago
    Because it always goes up ahead of the halvening
- _kbh_ 4y ago
  > - A NATO base is hit with a Russian missile, leading to increased saber rattling but ultimately not to any full-scale war Theres a decent chance that Russia hitting a NATO base with a missile doesn't cause full out war but it will be more than sabre rattling. > - There is no peace agreement in Ukraine but there is a temporary cease-fire which is eventually broken by a rogue faction of the Ukrainian military I don't think there will ever be a cease fire in Ukraine, it only allows Russia time to rebuild their stocks and rearm themselves.

71 points by k2xl 4y ago

What are some bold predictions you have for next year?

gw67 4y ago

- Inflation will start a cycle trend. Next year down, then up again - Earning compressions - revenue compressions due to less wealth and consumer power Multi year recessions and inflation.

throw_this_one 4y ago
How inflation but also less consumer power?

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

ThomPete 4y ago

*First, the macro economic and political:* - The Ukraine war will either end with Russia withdrawing and gaining a few territories or a coup. - The US and China will step up the military presence around Taiwan. - China's covid situation is getting completely out of control. If it doesn't mutate into something dangerous, it will disappear as quickly as it spread. - AI will become one of the most politicized areas. The discussion will be about bias, copyright, AGI and creativity. - There are voices in AI skepticism, so politicians will try to legislate in the area, especially the EU. - San Francisco will continue to do away with its dysfunctional progressive legislation. - The European countries will burn more fossil fuels than in 2022. - Coal will be the "best performing commodity" (Denmark alone 7 doubled imports of coal in 2022). - Investments in the green transition will be sharply reduced and several completely shelved. - The housing market will crash (Already down 10% in the US in 2022). - Credit card and loan debt will hit an all-time high. - Savings will hit the lowest point in recent times. - Energy will become more expensive, which means everything else will become more expensive. - Most schools will ban AI, some of the more rational ones will implement it into their teaching. - India will continue to develop economically, socially, technologically and become a power player on an equal footing with China and the USA. - Most countries will see zero to minus growth (i.e. recession) - Nuclear power is becoming more popular than ever. - Many people's pension savings will be greatly reduced. *And now for the technological/startups related:* - Venture capital investments in AI-related software are breaking records because investors have total FOMO. - We will see a bloodbath of companies going bankrupt or being bought as talent acquisitions. - “What is our AI strategy?” replaces "What is our Big Data Strategy?" as the most important question a company can ask itself. - Google, one of the biggest investors in AI models and chips, will be one of the companies that will be forced to publish how they intend to use AI while not killing their existing business. - The number of new search engines based on AI will explode. - The number of "AI optimized" products will explode. - By far the AI companies will fail as early as 2023. - GPT-4 will either be multimodal or have more direct access to the Internet. - NFT's will continue their popularity in many areas that have not used them before. - Crypto will finally get clear regulatory rules in the US. - We will see some pretty big advances in bio-technology due to Crisper. Especially cancer research. - Sam Bankman Fried from FTX will either get life in prison or go completely free. - Twitter survives despite cutting 70% of the company by asking: “Who is exceptional and who is indispensable?”. - Blockchain and AI will be the new power couple. They need each other. One provides utility, the other identity. - Many other companies will do what Musk has done and cut their staff. - More crashes in the Crypto world. - Mastodon who? - Mr. Beast becomes new Twitter CEO. With this I would like to wish everyone a good 2023 and hope to see many of you around where I come.

baal80spam 4y ago
> With this I would like to wish everyone a good 2022 Too late!
- ThomPete 4y ago
  LOL thanks. Fixed.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

0thgen 4y ago

chatbot search engines

wozer 4y ago

Big prediction thread from a week ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34125628 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34125628

narrator 4y ago
Did someone read the 2022 predictions thread and score it? If so, who were the big winners?
- europeanguy 4y ago
  No, that's hard work. Just making predictions, on the other hand, is easy.
- kylecazar 4y ago
  No, but I've skimmed. Lots of people got the higher probability things correct: -crypto plunge -queen dying -ukraine full invasion -etc

typingmonkey 4y ago

Zuckerberg will stop developing the metaverse.

samwillis 4y ago
I think it's too late, he bet the company on it and has no other long term plans. With the inevitable implosion of online advertising and the declining interest in FB properties I think they are going to show more signed of struggling next year.
eastbound 4y ago
Whatsapp will include a newsfeed before Zuckerberg ragequits the metaverse.
- voisin 4y ago
  Messages presented out of chronological order so as not to interfere with the ad business.. can’t wait.

autophagian 4y ago

Mountains crumble, rivers change their course, new roads replace old, stones are buried and vanish into the earth, and 2023 will be the year of linux on the desktop.

peterburkimsher 4y ago
In North Korea, every year is the year of Linux on the desktop (Red Star OS).

rvz 4y ago

Other than predicting a crypto crash exactly a year ago [0] and warning everyone to run out of the market [1] to prepare for a market crash with the 'four horse men' telling me about a tech crash years ago [2], I'm still predicting that startups that don't turn a profit will be struggling to raise further capital by VCs to stay afloat in 2023. My crystal ball has done a long term prediction about other things in the decade [3] [4] and it seems to be slowly becoming true and somewhat very accurate. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29752372 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29752372 [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29508238 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29508238 [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20993919 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20993919 [3] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22663119 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22663119 [4] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21926473 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21926473

mbg721 4y ago

The Russia/Ukraine conflict will get more complicated, and other regional disputes will be tied to it, but it still won't break out into a hot war with the US or China.

323 4y ago
Well, a hot war between Russia/US/China will last 30 minutes. So no need to stress over it.

samwillis 4y ago

Sticking to web tech (and reposting from twitter) my main prediction is a move away from “Rehydration” or “Resumability”, and a better understanding of holding state either on the server, or in the browser, (mostly) not both. HTMX becomes the fastest growing frontend toolkit in 2023 as devs feeling stack fatigue migrate from React and other JS toolkits towards a simpler architecture. A draft “HTML 6” spec is written incorporating ideas from HTMX and HATEOAS. Smaller front end JS toolkits like AlpineJS, "petite-vue", and HyperScript will explode in popularity, accelerated by the move towards basic server side html rendering. At the same time “offline first” and PWAs make giant leaps forward, off the back of WASM based SQLite and CRDT toolkits Yjs and Automerge. Offline first webapps will have their RoR/Django moment, a new BYOFE (bring your own frontend) framework based on SQLite in the browser, eventual consistency, and automatic schema migrations. Probably using Postgresql as the source of truth. There will be a move away from React Native back towards WebView based toolkits such as Capacitor and Tauri (I think Tauri will win over Electron in the long run), as people realise that a web view is just as performant. Complimented by strategic use of NativeScript. Ultimately there will be a split, if you need a fast initial reader and want simpler development, “HTML over the wire” and HATEOAS will become standard. No more “Rehydration” or “Resumability”. No more JSON APIs that are only ever used to render your html template. Alternatively if you are aiming for an app-like experience you will go “offline first” caching as much data on the client, implementing traditional server side functionality in the browser. Again no more “Rehydration” or “Resumability” as (almost) everything is client side. No more splitting state between client and server, just pick which side your particular product sits best in. (Originally posted in extended form here: https://mobile.twitter.com/samwillis/status/1608542221166587904 https://mobile.twitter.com/samwillis/status/1608542221166587...)

moughxyz 4y ago
> There will be a move away from React Native back towards WebView based toolkits such as Capacitor and Tauri (I think Tauri will win over Electron in the long run), as people realise that a web view is just as performant. Complimented by strategic use of NativeScript. Exactly what we did with Standard Notes. Never looked back. Wrote about what this looked like for us: https://blog.standardnotes.com/40921/no-react-native-is-not-the-future https://blog.standardnotes.com/40921/no-react-native-is-not-...

TylerLives 4y ago

We'll get a message from aliens, but no one will understand what it means.

zikzak 4y ago
again...

xwdv 4y ago

Someone that people loved very much will perish.

narrator 4y ago

Russia will win in Ukraine. It will probably result from some sort of prolonged general strike in an utterly exhausted Ukraine. The only modern war that Ukraine is comparable to, IMHO, is the Second Congo war. All the powers around it rush in to grab the resources of a destabilized country with the infrastructure getting obliterated and a huge humanitarian problem. AI will march forward completely unimpeded by law or regulation. A new AI bubble reminiscent of the early internet boom will start to form. "I use ChatGPT in my development workflow" will become the new "I know HTML." Crowdfunding for training open source models will be common. Someone will train a porn generating stable diffusion causing a moral outcry. Oil production will fall slightly. The oil price will start to rise. Tesla trucks will launch and be immensely popular. Battery production will continue to be a big concern. Coal will continue to do well, surprising everyone. Housing will continue to crash. This will delay a lot of redevelopment in San Francisco and other downtowns. That will start when interest rates fall again. That will be in 2024 or later. India and Mexico will do well. China will see significant death because of COVID. Europe will continue to deindustrialize. The aftermath of the Ukraine war might cause serious political realignments. Biotech will advance dramatically, but will receive little press. Stem cell treatments will go mainstream. Google will fail to redesign their business or even come out with a sophisticated chatbot AI product because their corporate culture can't handle the social political risks of AI. They can't even handle the risks of their employees believing It's alive. Larry Page and Sergei will continue to stay disengaged from the business, though one might give an interview lamenting the hyperpolitization of the company. Metaverse hype will continue. No one will care. Crypto, mainly Bitcoin, will continue to trudge along and absorb most of the volume. It will become an enemy currency in the U.S when Russia starts using it for payments. Food prices will continue to rise. There will be more Sri Lanka situations in which countries start experiencing extreme food insecurity. Vax backlash will not pick up any more than it already has. Murmurs of something very disturbing going on will continue beneath the surface. There will continue to be staffing shortages in the medical, airline, and public sector. Many new companies will be born to replace people with robots and automation in these industries. Alternative health will continue to grow in popularity, especially radically new approaches to healthcare. Regulations will be a problem, but people will get creative.

BetaDeltaAlpha 4y ago

mandmandam 4y ago

1. Issues around Corona boosters will become more apparent. Reports and studies linking damaged immune and vascular systems to mRNA vaccinations will become more and more clear, until the whole "let's 'boost' children and young adults twice a year" push gets quietly dropped altogether. 2. This won't lead to any impactful accountability or reform. 3. Referencing new health studies will be considered 'impolite', and 'conspiracy-adjacent', as will any discussion of corruption or profiteering.

version_five 4y ago
I don't know if I agree with your first point, but I definitely agree that it will become harder to ignore all the harm of the over-reaction to covid, but society will keep its head in the sand as much as possible and chastise anyone who points out any ongoing negative consequences as an anti-whatever or conspirationist

DukeIgnas 4y ago

Apache Kafka to fall out of favor in HN

timeon 4y ago
Franz will be first association again.

Simon_O_Rourke 4y ago

Pakistan to completely destabilize following more climate change driven natural disaster and start some limited border war along the line of control to try and shore up popular support at home. The UK to slide into a deep depression, and lose much financial stability and jobs related to city trading houses moving to the EU. Northern Ireland to hold a border poll about rejoining the EU through a United Ireland. Russian forces to continue digging in, exhausting Ukrainian attacks and causing a military stalemate and political deadlock. The Russian economy to continue to slide, corruption and gangsterism to encroach more on society there. Saudi Arabia to attempt further sports washing to improve their international image. Some unlikely sports final to be hosted in Riyadh. Vietnam to continue to crush the GDP growth rate, and start taking over some serious tech production from the likes of Shenzhen. Chinese COVID deaths to become a state secret, and the economy there to shrink while other Asian countries pick up the slack. The GOP to split into pro and anti Trump factions, with the anti Trump faction to make some massively authoritarian laws to win over red state voters.

onetokeoverthe 4y ago
[dead]

1attice 4y ago

My predictions for 2023-2030 2023 will be a year of endings and beginnings. The endings will be dramatic and the beginnings will only be understood in hindsight. Here's what happens. The collapse continues, manifesting now as a culture war that goes floor-by-floor throughout every industry. Twitter, sure, but everywhere, now, and faster. 2022's incredible advances in AI diffuse through civil society. Awareness that some fundamental contract with the nature of the world is straining, is perhaps breaking, seeps through the groundwater of the collective unconscious. This growing unease at the idea of productive capitalism without mass employment eventually becomes the stand-out story of the decade. Along with climate change, of course, which is now much harder to address, because democratic consensus becomes impossible because of the proliferation of bots and AI-gen propaganda. Over the ensuing decade, politics polarize even further, but there is also a second faultline, running on a sort of diagonal, between naturalist/ecologist/conservationist sensibility on one side, and technologist/rationalist/transhumanist ideology on the other. For example, a serious ecologist might reject (say) AI and euthanasia (neither being wholesomely natural), while still mostly voting in a left-aligned bloc; meanwhile a conservative might endorse science-based medicines and vaccines. Eventually this will seem normal, but in 2022 people will still be surprising each other. But maybe this is too fine-grained. Perhaps it is enough to say that, in 2023, the creeping sense of dread you've had for the past half-decade comes closer to a head, but not so close that you can actually be rid of it. That will come in 2025, after the bitter election, or 2030-ish if you make it that far. For now, rest up.

digitalsushi 4y ago

ML chat agents will pollute community forum spaces enough to start to turn humans away out of exhaustion they are the only person present

version_five 4y ago

Generative AI will turn into a crypto style echo chamber, where no meaningful business cases emerge but a bunch of true believers cant stop talking about how game changing it is. Deloitte will develop a generative AI consulting practice. The world will start to move on.

jatins 4y ago
Generative AI is already past the utility that Crypto ever had. Copywriting industry is going to be AI powered going forward, Copilot is widely loved by programmers and generative images are also finding utility in things like AI powered logo makers.
- happymellon 4y ago
  Copilot is massively polarising. Aside from that, I think that we are at a crossroads with Generative AI. ChatGPT is amazing, but that's because it's sources are all human. What happens when Stack overflow gets a load of copypasta from these ChatBots, we already can see some small logic bugs in outputs and when it starts to see itself, or other lower quality bots, churning out buggy code will that impact it? We could enter an era where developers become the person who can best express a technical requirement for ChatGPT to spit out working code. Or we could become proofreaders. The people reading all the outputs and fixing the bugs that are generated from the bots, the best coders are those with the most experience with crappy outputs and can fix what the bot meant to do.
  - tremon 4y ago
    What happens when Stack overflow gets a load of copypasta from these ChatBots This happens: https://meta.stackoverflow.com/questions/421831/temporary-policy-chatgpt-is-banned https://meta.stackoverflow.com/questions/421831/temporary-po... > The primary problem is that while the answers which ChatGPT produces have a high rate of being incorrect, they typically look like they might be good and the answers are very easy to produce
    - 4y ago

cpsns 4y ago

Things will get worse.

heresjohnny 4y ago
Hear me out – things will get better!

whywhywouldyou 4y ago

At the end of the year, someone will make a generic post on HN asking what my predictions for 2024 are. And I will again wonder why it made it to the front page of HN.

mellosouls 4y ago
TBF I'm pretty sure they aren't just asking you.

iso1631 4y ago

See last week's https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34125628 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34125628 (781 comments)

logicchains 4y ago

Academic research like https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciimmunol.ade2798 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciimmunol.ade2798 and https://www.mdpi.com/2414-6366/7/8/196 https://www.mdpi.com/2414-6366/7/8/196 will finally make it into the mainstream and people on the left will begin to acknowledge that there are nontrivial risks associated with the mRNA vaccines. Trump will continue to defend operation warp speed, and more conservatives will defect to DeSantis.

barbazoo 4y ago
Can someone ELI5 please what that first link is talking about?
- wrycoder 4y ago
  The bivalent vaccines are less effective than expected, due to a change in the type of antibodies induced.
  - barbazoo 4y ago
    Thank you. So it's not really about "nontrivial risks associated with the mRNA vaccines" as suggested in the comment I responded to. They might not have understood the paper either. Thanks again.

sidcool 4y ago

Programming and software development will change drastically over the next few years. It will no longer remain a niche skill. Product managers will be able to code up things.

zikzak 4y ago
Please don't take away my ability to feel smug because I told a bunch of other people what to do and they mostly did it. I can't go back to doing things myself, I just can't.

pg_bot 4y ago

- The mRNA vaccine for HIV will be successful. - Cryptocurrency will continue fading into irrelevance. - Russia continues to throw the kitchen sink at Ukraine, but will lose ground in the Zaporizhzhia oblast. The war will be effectively over after the Ukranians recapture Melitopol. - Belarus will revolt and Lukashenko will be exiled to Russia. - Biden dies of natural causes. - Inflation in the US will continue to fall back down to the expected 2% rate. - Blitzscaling falls out of favor as more venture capitalists focus on fundamentals and due diligence. - The next wave of big tech companies will be founded in cities that are not known for being tech hubs.

throw_this_one 4y ago
If Biden passed that might be catastrophic

swader999 4y ago

SBF, Clinton, Trump, Fauci will remain out of jail.

rustymonday 4y ago

We will find Atlantis.

jl6 4y ago

Microsoft will buy Meta. Oracle will buy IBM. Amazon will buy Sony.

voisin 4y ago
#2 and 3 I could see but #1 seems impossible. /s?
- jl6 4y ago
  Well, I’m responding to the direction to be bold, so it’s not that I think these are slam dunk acquisitions, but they are halfway plausible and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them happen. Amazon is hungry for content and needs a gaming play. IBM is in long-term stagnation and Oracle has a more aggressive vision of owning “The Enterprise”. Microsoft already has a stake in Meta, and I expect the price of Meta to freefall once they abandon the metaverse gamble. Microsoft could pick up the pieces and exploit the value of the network. They did it with Linkedin and they would just love to own consumer social/messaging and a big slice of the ad-targeting pie with which to challenge Google.

Raed667 4y ago

1- Generative AI: - The ecosystem will be flooded by crypto/NFT refugees and startups looking for business models will raise absurd amounts of money while the rest of us wonder if the world turned stupid again. - Generative AI will result in obnoxious chat-bots and customer-support SaaS that will make the entire process even more kafkaesque. - Developers will be able to just `npm install` their way into ML without having to learn the fundamentals 2- Augmented Reality: - We will see A/R glasses from Apple, with privacy as a selling point. - Zuckerberg will quietly and slowly drop the meta-verse and resume investing in Instagram as it fades away from cultural relevance. 3- Algorithms: - Algorithms will be the de-facto and ultimate judge of character. If Tiktok says you like water-polo, that means deep inside you like water-polo. 4- Musk: - Twitter will be assigned a ridiculous CEO and will start a 3 year dive out of media/culture relevance as Gen-Z don’t care for it. - Tesla stock will continue to drop, as more established companies build better EVs more reliable and with better quality. 5- Social media: - Mastodon will be successful, but nothing like Twitter or Facebook. The intended lack of features and fragmentation will prevent it from being a network for viral content or events. - TikTok will lose creators to YouTube, especially if they don’t fix their monetization and bots problems. 6- Software development: - React will continue to rule as the web platform at least for another few years, but the momentum will slow. - Next.js will overshadow Remix, as the latter doesn’t offer enough competitive advantage to sway away users. - SvelteKit will be the fastest growing framework but it will be mostly for smaller/hobby projects. - Despite the initial hype, Rome tools, Deno & Bun will be quasi abandoned as the ecosystem outpaces their release cycle and the benefits don’t merit the headache of migration. - Rust will leak in most software tooling and we will see attempts at a Django-like framework.

schwartzworld 4y ago
Regarding augmented reality, I think that necessity to be in cameras on Zoom calls all day is a perfect use case for it: Live deepfake masks. Do your hair and makeup once, scan yourself, and then you can hide behind your own (or someone else's) digital visage.

tmaly 4y ago

I think housing prices will come down a bit more in the US. The FED is walking a fine line with interest rates. I predict they will have to backtrack and lower the rates in the second half of 2023. I think the new 3nm process from TSMC will help to accelerate new NVIDIA cards to support GPT like AI, but TSMC will have to rapidly expand fabs outside of Taiwan to offset the risk from China.

kjellsbells 4y ago

1. The next wave of social. FB is dead. Twitter is imploding. The govt is trying to get rid of TikTok. Mastodon is too hardcore for your mom in peoria. But there's still a need, and someone is going to figure it out. So 2023 will see a flowering of ideas most of which will die and one of which will win. 2. Investors move into water. The US Southwest is at a crunch point now. Its not so much that people have seen evidence that makes them want to change as seeing evidence that there is money to be made trading rights to water. I actually thing water wars are a megatrend, but even if Im wrong there, the situation out west is dire. 3. There will be an implosion in corporate real estate as leases terminate. Some downtowns will collapse.

trash3 4y ago

[dead]

moose_man 4y ago

China and the United States will have one military incident next year that will bring us breathtakingly close to war.

leke 4y ago

My prediction for the web is that this will be the year of HTMX. My prediction for the war is that Russia will have full mobilisation. 2023 will not be the year for disclosure. 2023 will not be the year for the adoption of an international language.

gw67 4y ago

The new ChatGTP will create lots of shitty spam over the internet.

the_doctah 4y ago

The woke ideology problem will only get worse.

hulitu 4y ago

The US will be pushing hard for WW3.

HelixEndeavor 4y ago

The U.S. economy will fall even more steeply into depression, the housing market bubble will pop, and it will be incredibly hard for a time, but will ultimately be good for most.

throw_this_one 4y ago
Why would the Fed let that happen?

welcome_dragon 4y ago

Johnny Silverhand will blow up Arasaka Tower

alkonaut 4y ago

Nothing hoppens in Russia, although it’s even closer to collapse than now. Happening any day. The war in Ukraine continues and Ukraine is slowly winning. Vladimir Putin is still in power but is rumored to be losing his grip. Nothing happens legally to Donald Trump, although he’s even closer to bad things happening. Twitter doesn’t collapse but is on the brink of financial ruin. Will collapse any day.

unixbotnuke 4y ago

-Elon Musk is ousted from Tesla/SpaceX; TSLA <$50 -Trump dies of heart failure -New COVID strain from the USA -Housing bubble pops

JEDI-HACKER 4y ago

I believe Skynet will takeover, release the zombies. While AI will be making useless TikTok video's. Definitely will be another global lockdown.

TechBro8615 4y ago

- Bitcoin passes $50k and continues rising through $100k shortly before the next halvening in March 2024 - One of Biden, Trump or Putin dies of natural causes. Approximately 50% of people do not believe the official story. - A NATO base is hit with a Russian missile, leading to increased saber rattling but ultimately not to any full-scale war - There is no peace agreement in Ukraine but there is a temporary cease-fire which is eventually broken by a rogue faction of the Ukrainian military - Excess deaths continue above pre-2021 levels - China does not invade Taiwan, but there are large scale protests in one of Taiwan or Hong Kong. - TikTok is not banned - Twitter does not crash. By the end of the year there is news that Musk is shopping around to take it public again. - Civil unrest in Egypt is violently oppressed but there is no change in power - There is a tragic accident in the Space travel industry - Zuckerberg steps down as CEO of Meta - Jack Dorsey returns as CEO of Twitter - At least one major VPN provider is found to be operated or sponsored by a US intelligence agency - A new social network becomes popular after introducing an alternative means of consuming news stories

throw_this_one 4y ago
Why bitcoin back up?
- TechBro8615 4y ago
  Because it always goes up ahead of the halvening
_kbh_ 4y ago
> - A NATO base is hit with a Russian missile, leading to increased saber rattling but ultimately not to any full-scale war Theres a decent chance that Russia hitting a NATO base with a missile doesn't cause full out war but it will be more than sabre rattling. > - There is no peace agreement in Ukraine but there is a temporary cease-fire which is eventually broken by a rogue faction of the Ukrainian military I don't think there will ever be a cease fire in Ukraine, it only allows Russia time to rebuild their stocks and rearm themselves.