I think a good metaphor for AI progress is 3D graphics. We've definitely passed the Castle Wolfenstein era of AI, and are solidly in the Doom era: It's not act

I think a good metaphor for AI progress is 3D graphics. We've definitely passed the Castle Wolfenstein era of AI, and are solidly in the Doom era: It's not actual real intelligence yet, but it looks and feels a lot like it. One could even say we're approaching Quake level AI, where you can actually look up and down. It's still just mostly smoke and mirrors though, just like early pseudo-3D, making you feel like the system is rendering everything in three dimensional space, were it's mostly just flat images created to look like there's more depth than there actually is. Once you clip through a wall, you realize the limitations pretty quickly. There are some Mario 64 level AIs out there, showing what's possible, but they're very niche systems so far. And again, you quickly realize the scope of what's possible isn't as big as it seems at first. But we're definitely going to get there, and it's going to happen fast. When we get to the AI equivalent of real time ray-tracing, ambient occlusion, etc. things are going to get really interesting.