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I've seen scattered comments that Russia has not yet targetted the highest-voltage transformers in Ukraine, for which stockpiling spares (as reported here) migh

by a9h74j 4y ago

I've seen scattered comments that Russia has not yet targetted the highest-voltage transformers in Ukraine, for which stockpiling spares (as reported here) might not apply.

KennyBlanken 4y ago
Which makes perfect sense, because Russia wants Ukraine's energy generation/transportation infrastructure.
- sneak 4y ago
  Do they? Pretty much the only clear and obvious thing it seems Russia wants from this is for Ukraine to not be able to compete with Russia in selling petrochemicals. Given that Russia's GDP is wholly dependent on petrochemical exports, regional competition (even with identical pricing) is bad (perhaps existentially so) for the future of the Russian economy.
  - vasac 4y ago
    Since when Ukraine has petrochemicals to sell in amounts that could cause problems to Russia? Ukraine was just somewhat unreliable transport route for Russian oil/gas and even that was solved with NS1&2.
    - rolenthedeep 4y ago
      There's a ton of oil and gas in the ground in the northeast and south of Ukraine. Potentially they are sitting on a significant fraction of what Russia has, and since it's closer to the EU, it will be cheaper to export in volume. Also I'm fairly sure that Ukraine has the right to deny Russia the right to transport oil through the existing pipelines in their territory, which IIRC is how the majority of Russian exports get to Europe.
simplyaccont 4y ago
There is difference between "not targeted" and "failed to blow up". 80% to 90% percent of missiles that russia shoots are intercepted, at which point you don't know what was their final destination. I guess more high value targets (like highest voltage transformers) have better air defense perimeter.
- jvanderbot 4y ago
  Citation needed on 80%+ That seems excessively high.
  - ljf 4y ago
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64114784 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64114784 From Dec 29th attack: Ukraine's military said 69 missiles were launched, with air defences intercepting 54 of them. So 78% - I've not looked to see how normal or not that is, perhaps you can?
    - simplyaccont 4y ago
      it's cruise missiles. "slow" flying. people take them out even with MANPADs and German Gepards. somewhat "easy" target. If russia were to start shooting ballistic missles, it will be harder.
      - booi 4y ago
        imo unlikely they resort to those. ballistic missiles are a lot more expensive, malfunctions or mistakes could bring NATO into the war and at the very very least, will invite significant missile defense systems from other countries into Ukraine. It would be a mistake.. Now that I think of it, Putin might not give af
        simplyaccont 4y ago
        They do shoot Iskanders, which are short range ballistic. But they are running out of them. This is Ukranian estimations of russian stocks of various types of missiles that are currently been used for bombing Ukraine https://preview.redd.it/oa9z2mdhlv8a1.jpeg?width=1600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=74059879480acadbca3f8561346df8e58b93b50b https://preview.redd.it/oa9z2mdhlv8a1.jpeg?width=1600&format...

by a9h74j 4y ago

I've seen scattered comments that Russia has not yet targetted the highest-voltage transformers in Ukraine, for which stockpiling spares (as reported here) might not apply.

KennyBlanken 4y ago

Which makes perfect sense, because Russia wants Ukraine's energy generation/transportation infrastructure.

sneak 4y ago
Do they? Pretty much the only clear and obvious thing it seems Russia wants from this is for Ukraine to not be able to compete with Russia in selling petrochemicals. Given that Russia's GDP is wholly dependent on petrochemical exports, regional competition (even with identical pricing) is bad (perhaps existentially so) for the future of the Russian economy.
- vasac 4y ago
  Since when Ukraine has petrochemicals to sell in amounts that could cause problems to Russia? Ukraine was just somewhat unreliable transport route for Russian oil/gas and even that was solved with NS1&2.
  - rolenthedeep 4y ago
    There's a ton of oil and gas in the ground in the northeast and south of Ukraine. Potentially they are sitting on a significant fraction of what Russia has, and since it's closer to the EU, it will be cheaper to export in volume. Also I'm fairly sure that Ukraine has the right to deny Russia the right to transport oil through the existing pipelines in their territory, which IIRC is how the majority of Russian exports get to Europe.

simplyaccont 4y ago

There is difference between "not targeted" and "failed to blow up". 80% to 90% percent of missiles that russia shoots are intercepted, at which point you don't know what was their final destination. I guess more high value targets (like highest voltage transformers) have better air defense perimeter.

jvanderbot 4y ago
Citation needed on 80%+ That seems excessively high.
- ljf 4y ago
  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64114784 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64114784 From Dec 29th attack: Ukraine's military said 69 missiles were launched, with air defences intercepting 54 of them. So 78% - I've not looked to see how normal or not that is, perhaps you can?
  - simplyaccont 4y ago
    it's cruise missiles. "slow" flying. people take them out even with MANPADs and German Gepards. somewhat "easy" target. If russia were to start shooting ballistic missles, it will be harder.
    - booi 4y ago
      imo unlikely they resort to those. ballistic missiles are a lot more expensive, malfunctions or mistakes could bring NATO into the war and at the very very least, will invite significant missile defense systems from other countries into Ukraine. It would be a mistake.. Now that I think of it, Putin might not give af
      - simplyaccont 4y ago
        They do shoot Iskanders, which are short range ballistic. But they are running out of them. This is Ukranian estimations of russian stocks of various types of missiles that are currently been used for bombing Ukraine https://preview.redd.it/oa9z2mdhlv8a1.jpeg?width=1600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=74059879480acadbca3f8561346df8e58b93b50b https://preview.redd.it/oa9z2mdhlv8a1.jpeg?width=1600&format...