5 ms·

Can't they at least wait until we start to reliably see product on shelves?

by brink 4y ago

meltyness 4y ago
TPUs have been all over the shelf, and adoption was snubbed. More graphics cards than ever before! Real-time raytracing available on your cell phone, laptop, and all 5 smart TVs in your home and backyard porch!! You were unable to convince your executives to adopt huggingface, IOT, and instead they opted to employ phone calls and Excel spreadsheets. You, consumer, failed to accept Stadia into your heart,... and now you shall pay for your snide indifference!!
- walterbell 4y ago
  Where can TPUs be purchased? Vendors linked from Google Coral (https://coral.ai https://coral.ai) have been out of stock for some time.
  - meltyness 4y ago
    Colab and huggingface are fishing for customers by handing out compute time in these things for free, and getting a militia's worth of tensor-connected memory isn't too expensive if you get provisioned to spin up a p2 on EC2, or presumably azure or gcp. Of course real consumers can't buy the hardware, real consumers don't have AAA credit ratings. You can always eBay a K80 as well if your motherboard supports the >4G decoding switch, but my primary point was about the insane purchasing power that affords large CommSvc sector company the ability to crash the market for a product before anyone even has logistics in place, apparently wishing to gatekeep any applications. - Game devs haven't made any games that stress a cloud gaming environment, they didn't even push VR. - Corporate consumers are hardly adopting AI at all, because there's still barely even a workforce. - Some very vocal people find proof of work a distasteful mechanism to support logistical metacommodity growth.
oblak 4y ago
Maybe this isn't strictly about GPUs. Or maybe it's just FUD designed to signal that no, video cards aren't getting cheaper and they'd rather cut supply than lower their margins. Who knows with this industry.
- drewg123 4y ago
  I would assume they are forecasting far less demand due to the crypto crash..
  - ddorian43 4y ago
    Probably just the upcoming recession. Powell will destroy demand at all costs.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
    - adra 4y ago
      Despite popular belief, most computers are used for business and unless there's an entire multi industry collapse, the potential demand destruction probably won't be that high outside of the prosumer PC gaming markets. I do think crypto is demand destroyed due to their own collapse unrelated but related to the economy in general. My expectation is that the next crypto bubble will take longer to inflate this time vs the last, but hell what's the point reading tea leaves. This could be the end of crypto. All we need is a new and exciting meme way for early adopters to sell losing bets into ignorant followers.
      - ddorian43 4y ago
        Powell will kill all bubbles (crypto,stock,real estate, bonds, used cars, etc)
  - Mistletoe 4y ago
    Ethereum also moved to proof of stake and it was by far the highest amount of hash rate mineable by GPUs. https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2022/09/the-end-of-ethereum-mining-could-be-a-bonanza-for-gpu-shoppers/ https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2022/09/the-end-of-ethereum-m... Really awesome charts here- https://pcpartpicker.com/trends/price/video-card/ https://pcpartpicker.com/trends/price/video-card/
plasticchris 4y ago
The 4080 is reliably on shelves. It’s just not a good value.
- ninth_ant 4y ago
  It’s not just about the 4080 though (though, you are right). AMDs new cards are much better value for gamers, but they are in this list too. I think this is less about consumer GPUs and more about cost cutting in big corps slowing expansions, and the reduction in crypto demand. Think about every tech company that says “oops we overbuilt for covid, whelp let’s lay everyone off” well they could be buying fewer servers if they over-anticipated their needs in that department too.
chacham15 4y ago
The problem is that the higher end GPUs are actually the same chip as the lower end GPUs. The lower end GPUs are where the manufacturing process had an error and thus they fuse off a core. All that to say that they cant manufacture a high end GPU without also manufacturing a low end one (or multiple depending on the manufacturing error rate). So, if they cant sell the low end one, it may not make sense to sell the high end one even if there is a buyer.
- ChuckNorris89 4y ago
  >The problem is that the higher end GPUs are actually the same chip as the lower end GPUs. Don't know where you got that info but that's definitely false. If you look at Nvidia's lineup, each GPU has a die that's unique to that product in both size and markings. Sure, there have been/are a few products that make use of the same die but with defects depending on yelds, but those are usually in the same performance class (1070, 1070TI and 1080 had the same die), and not the case you're talking about of entry level GPUs being high end GPUs dies with defects fused off. That's never the case. An RTX 3050 die is a completely different part than a 3080/3090 die.
  - LegitShady 4y ago
    i think his point is more accurate for CPUs
    - rcxdude 4y ago
      Yes, though also only to a point. You still see multiple dies in a product generation for CPUs, but you do get binning into multiple SKUs for each of those dies.
  - touisteur 4y ago
    I think it applies for the datacenter/gaming distinction, where the chip of the A40 (ga102) is supposedly the same as the RTX3090 (Ti?) and they play on frequency, memory sizes and other differentiators? And on the license of course...
dragontamer 4y ago
NVidia 3xxx series is flooding the shelves. NVidia wants this product to sell out before they move on. It doesn't make much sense for NVidia to increase production of 4xxx series when there's so much 3xxx series sitting around in warehouse inventory.
- fbdab103 4y ago
  Does a 4xxx card make sense for any pedestrian gamer? Clocking in at >$1200, it is a hard swallow to say that the extra FPS is worth it. Unless the price comes down massively, the high sticker price (plus insane power draw), really leave me wondering who is purchasing these things for anything but machine learning.
  - Wohlf 4y ago
    They're not worth it at all. I have a 3080 for 4k/60fps gaming without issues and I got it for $500 used. If a game struggles to hold a consistent framerate it's usually an issue with the game or certain settings, tweaking settings is free so throwing hardware at it doesn't make sense. Unless you're willing to spend $1000+ the real world performance differences aren't even that large: https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/high_end_gpus.html https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/high_end_gpus.html

Can't they at least wait until we start to reliably see product on shelves?

by brink 4y ago

Can't they at least wait until we start to reliably see product on shelves?

TPUs have been all over the shelf, and adoption was snubbed. More graphics cards than ever before! Real-time raytracing available on your cell phone, laptop, and all 5 smart TVs in your home and backyard porch!! You were unable to convince your executives to adopt huggingface, IOT, and instead they opted to employ phone calls and Excel spreadsheets. You, consumer, failed to accept Stadia into your heart,... and now you shall pay for your snide indifference!!

walterbell 4y ago
Where can TPUs be purchased? Vendors linked from Google Coral (https://coral.ai https://coral.ai) have been out of stock for some time.
- meltyness 4y ago
  Colab and huggingface are fishing for customers by handing out compute time in these things for free, and getting a militia's worth of tensor-connected memory isn't too expensive if you get provisioned to spin up a p2 on EC2, or presumably azure or gcp. Of course real consumers can't buy the hardware, real consumers don't have AAA credit ratings. You can always eBay a K80 as well if your motherboard supports the >4G decoding switch, but my primary point was about the insane purchasing power that affords large CommSvc sector company the ability to crash the market for a product before anyone even has logistics in place, apparently wishing to gatekeep any applications. - Game devs haven't made any games that stress a cloud gaming environment, they didn't even push VR. - Corporate consumers are hardly adopting AI at all, because there's still barely even a workforce. - Some very vocal people find proof of work a distasteful mechanism to support logistical metacommodity growth.

oblak 4y ago

Maybe this isn't strictly about GPUs. Or maybe it's just FUD designed to signal that no, video cards aren't getting cheaper and they'd rather cut supply than lower their margins. Who knows with this industry.

drewg123 4y ago
I would assume they are forecasting far less demand due to the crypto crash..
- ddorian43 4y ago
  Probably just the upcoming recession. Powell will destroy demand at all costs.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - adra 4y ago
    Despite popular belief, most computers are used for business and unless there's an entire multi industry collapse, the potential demand destruction probably won't be that high outside of the prosumer PC gaming markets. I do think crypto is demand destroyed due to their own collapse unrelated but related to the economy in general. My expectation is that the next crypto bubble will take longer to inflate this time vs the last, but hell what's the point reading tea leaves. This could be the end of crypto. All we need is a new and exciting meme way for early adopters to sell losing bets into ignorant followers.
    - ddorian43 4y ago
      Powell will kill all bubbles (crypto,stock,real estate, bonds, used cars, etc)
- Mistletoe 4y ago
  Ethereum also moved to proof of stake and it was by far the highest amount of hash rate mineable by GPUs. https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2022/09/the-end-of-ethereum-mining-could-be-a-bonanza-for-gpu-shoppers/ https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2022/09/the-end-of-ethereum-m... Really awesome charts here- https://pcpartpicker.com/trends/price/video-card/ https://pcpartpicker.com/trends/price/video-card/

plasticchris 4y ago

The 4080 is reliably on shelves. It’s just not a good value.

ninth_ant 4y ago
It’s not just about the 4080 though (though, you are right). AMDs new cards are much better value for gamers, but they are in this list too. I think this is less about consumer GPUs and more about cost cutting in big corps slowing expansions, and the reduction in crypto demand. Think about every tech company that says “oops we overbuilt for covid, whelp let’s lay everyone off” well they could be buying fewer servers if they over-anticipated their needs in that department too.

chacham15 4y ago

The problem is that the higher end GPUs are actually the same chip as the lower end GPUs. The lower end GPUs are where the manufacturing process had an error and thus they fuse off a core. All that to say that they cant manufacture a high end GPU without also manufacturing a low end one (or multiple depending on the manufacturing error rate). So, if they cant sell the low end one, it may not make sense to sell the high end one even if there is a buyer.

ChuckNorris89 4y ago
>The problem is that the higher end GPUs are actually the same chip as the lower end GPUs. Don't know where you got that info but that's definitely false. If you look at Nvidia's lineup, each GPU has a die that's unique to that product in both size and markings. Sure, there have been/are a few products that make use of the same die but with defects depending on yelds, but those are usually in the same performance class (1070, 1070TI and 1080 had the same die), and not the case you're talking about of entry level GPUs being high end GPUs dies with defects fused off. That's never the case. An RTX 3050 die is a completely different part than a 3080/3090 die.
- LegitShady 4y ago
  i think his point is more accurate for CPUs
  - rcxdude 4y ago
    Yes, though also only to a point. You still see multiple dies in a product generation for CPUs, but you do get binning into multiple SKUs for each of those dies.
- touisteur 4y ago
  I think it applies for the datacenter/gaming distinction, where the chip of the A40 (ga102) is supposedly the same as the RTX3090 (Ti?) and they play on frequency, memory sizes and other differentiators? And on the license of course...

dragontamer 4y ago

NVidia 3xxx series is flooding the shelves. NVidia wants this product to sell out before they move on. It doesn't make much sense for NVidia to increase production of 4xxx series when there's so much 3xxx series sitting around in warehouse inventory.

fbdab103 4y ago
Does a 4xxx card make sense for any pedestrian gamer? Clocking in at >$1200, it is a hard swallow to say that the extra FPS is worth it. Unless the price comes down massively, the high sticker price (plus insane power draw), really leave me wondering who is purchasing these things for anything but machine learning.
- Wohlf 4y ago
  They're not worth it at all. I have a 3080 for 4k/60fps gaming without issues and I got it for $500 used. If a game struggles to hold a consistent framerate it's usually an issue with the game or certain settings, tweaking settings is free so throwing hardware at it doesn't make sense. Unless you're willing to spend $1000+ the real world performance differences aren't even that large: https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/high_end_gpus.html https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/high_end_gpus.html