4 ms·

> Based on the numbers that were reported, And there's the reason testing to get seroprevalence data is so important, because what follows that sentence is pur

> Based on the numbers that were reported, And there's the reason testing to get seroprevalence data is so important, because what follows that sentence is pure speculation. > If you compare internationally, you can find similar patterns in countries that mostly managed to avoid COVID in 2020 and 2021 before succumbing to Omicron. Again, - Japan had no internal lockdown - International travel still occurred - Contact tracing does not work in a pandemic, especially one for a respiratory virus that has already spread[1], closing the barn doors after the horse has bolted is not a valid proposition as actual seroprevalence testing showed in early 2020 that contradicted official figures: > Results: ... These numbers were 396 to 858-fold more than confirmed cases with PCR testing in Kobe City. > Conclusions: Our cross-sectional serological study suggests that the number of people with seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 infection in Kobe, Japan is far more than the confirmed cases by PCR testing. There are more of these types of study[2][3], if you care to look, that hint more that heavily at the reality. > Results: We estimated that as of December 31, 2021, 3.07 million (CrI: 2.05-4.24 million) people had been infected in Japan, which is 1.77 times higher than the 1.73 million reported cases. Our meta-analysis confirmed that these findings were consistent with the intermittent seroprevalence studies conducted in Japan. and > In conclusion, our cross-sectional serological study suggests that the actual number of people with SARS-CoV-2 infection in Kobe, Japan was estimated to be lower than our previous study, yet was more than the confirmed cases by PCR testing. Lockdown logic is not valid, in theory or reality. Stay slim, stay active and your country too can remain largely unaffected[4], in a way that is statistically significant - to the point it hits one over the head with a hammer - and backed up by actual evidence, unlike lockdowns and masks. > There was a consistent dose‒response association across lower physical activity categories, with the strongest association comparing the always active with the always inactive category. Patients in the always inactive category (median EVS≤10 minutes/week) had 91% higher odds of hospitalization (OR=1.91; 95% CI=1.68, 2.17), 139% higher odds of a deterioration event (Appendix Figure 2, available online) (OR=2.39; 95% CI=1.94, 2.94), and 291% higher odds of death (OR=3.91; 95% CI=3.01, 5.07) than patients in the always active category. and from[5], the most succinct and blunt way to put it: > Is overweight associated with the severity of COVID-19 and the need for hospital treatment? > Yes. The figures speak for themselves. Worth a read, I highly recommend it. Finally, this assertion of yours is patently false: > but fewer deaths from Omicron, largely due to existing immunity. South Africa has entered the chat. [1] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33898863/#article-details https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33898863/#article-details [2] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35961504/#article-details https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35961504/#article-details [3] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9191319/#main-content https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9191319/#main-c... [4] https://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-3797(22)00526-8/fulltext https://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-3797(22)00526-8/ful... [5] https://www.worldobesity.org/resources/resource-library/covid-19-and-obesity-the-2021-atlas https://www.worldobesity.org/resources/resource-library/covi...

jltsiren 4y ago
~3 million estimated infections by the end of 2021 is a very low number for a country the size of Japan. Many other countries already had 5x to 10x more confirmed cases per capita at that point, and the reported numbers were usually assumed to be 2x to 3x too low. 50% of reported COVID deaths in Japan have occurred since April 2022. In most Western countries, the median death was about a year earlier. That difference suggests that whatever Japan did in 2020-2021, it helped them to avoid infections during that time. Differences in case mortality rates don't explain numbers like that. Infectious diseases do not care about pandemics and other administrative classifications. Contact tracing works as long as the rate of new infections remains low enough. For example, most Nordic countries managed to enjoy a relatively normal summer 2020, because contact tracing was able to keep up with new infections for several months.
- brigandish 4y ago
  > That difference suggests that whatever Japan did in 2020-2021, it helped them to avoid infections during that time. Getting outside, exercising, and not being overweight. > Infectious diseases do not care about pandemics and other administrative classifications. Yes, what epidemiologists know should have no place in a discussion like this, neither should the facts about the effect size of fitness level and obesity being greater than that of vaccines, for instance, that kind of thing would be far too inconvenient. We should replace it with speculation that doesn’t actually fit reality.
  - jltsiren 4y ago
    > Getting outside, exercising, and not being overweight. Do you mean that the Japanese stopped going outside, stopped exercising, and became overweight in 2022? After all, COVID deaths went up there, as opposed to most other countries.
    - brigandish 4y ago
      > After all, COVID deaths went up there Weirdly, before the border restrictions that did exist were lifted. > as opposed to most other countries That's a stretch[1], but by all means, feel free to claim that a highly virulent respiratory virus transmission rate and a large population's immune response should remain uniform. Make no effort to check excess death figures either. As they say, never interfere with an enemy while he’s in the process of destroying himself. Meanwhile, an article[2] early in the pandemic that looked at why Japan was doing so well has this to say: > Nor has Japan had a lockdown on the scale or severity of Europe. In early April, the government ordered a state of emergency. But the stay-at-home request was voluntary. Non-essential businesses were asked to close, but there was no legal penalty for refusing. > Many paragons of Covid strategy, such as New Zealand and Vietnam, used tough measures including closing borders, tight lockdowns, large-scale testing and strict quarantines - but Japan did none of that. and later in the article, after much speculation: > A recent report by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found people with underlying medical conditions such as heart disease, obesity and diabetes are six times more likely to be hospitalised if they get Covid-19 and 12 times more likely to die. > Japan has the lowest rates of coronary heart disease and obesity in the developed world. Still, scientists insist such vital signs do not explain everything. > "Those kinds of physical differences may have some effect but I think the other areas are more important. We've learned from Covid that there is no simple explanation for any of the phenomena that we're seeing. It's a lot of factors contributing to the final outcome," says Prof Fukuda. Well, the professor was shown to be too conservative as we now have more data and know how strong the effect of these physical differences are. You know, facts, those inconvenient things that are better than (incessant) speculation. "It's a lot of factors" is true but attributing a cause to factors that don't exist is a weakpoint in any argument. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=false&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=USA~GBR~CAN~DEU~FRA~JPN https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor... [2] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53188847#main-heading https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53188847#main-heading

jltsiren 4y ago

~3 million estimated infections by the end of 2021 is a very low number for a country the size of Japan. Many other countries already had 5x to 10x more confirmed cases per capita at that point, and the reported numbers were usually assumed to be 2x to 3x too low. 50% of reported COVID deaths in Japan have occurred since April 2022. In most Western countries, the median death was about a year earlier. That difference suggests that whatever Japan did in 2020-2021, it helped them to avoid infections during that time. Differences in case mortality rates don't explain numbers like that. Infectious diseases do not care about pandemics and other administrative classifications. Contact tracing works as long as the rate of new infections remains low enough. For example, most Nordic countries managed to enjoy a relatively normal summer 2020, because contact tracing was able to keep up with new infections for several months.

brigandish 4y ago
> That difference suggests that whatever Japan did in 2020-2021, it helped them to avoid infections during that time. Getting outside, exercising, and not being overweight. > Infectious diseases do not care about pandemics and other administrative classifications. Yes, what epidemiologists know should have no place in a discussion like this, neither should the facts about the effect size of fitness level and obesity being greater than that of vaccines, for instance, that kind of thing would be far too inconvenient. We should replace it with speculation that doesn’t actually fit reality.
- jltsiren 4y ago
  > Getting outside, exercising, and not being overweight. Do you mean that the Japanese stopped going outside, stopped exercising, and became overweight in 2022? After all, COVID deaths went up there, as opposed to most other countries.
  - brigandish 4y ago
    > After all, COVID deaths went up there Weirdly, before the border restrictions that did exist were lifted. > as opposed to most other countries That's a stretch[1], but by all means, feel free to claim that a highly virulent respiratory virus transmission rate and a large population's immune response should remain uniform. Make no effort to check excess death figures either. As they say, never interfere with an enemy while he’s in the process of destroying himself. Meanwhile, an article[2] early in the pandemic that looked at why Japan was doing so well has this to say: > Nor has Japan had a lockdown on the scale or severity of Europe. In early April, the government ordered a state of emergency. But the stay-at-home request was voluntary. Non-essential businesses were asked to close, but there was no legal penalty for refusing. > Many paragons of Covid strategy, such as New Zealand and Vietnam, used tough measures including closing borders, tight lockdowns, large-scale testing and strict quarantines - but Japan did none of that. and later in the article, after much speculation: > A recent report by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found people with underlying medical conditions such as heart disease, obesity and diabetes are six times more likely to be hospitalised if they get Covid-19 and 12 times more likely to die. > Japan has the lowest rates of coronary heart disease and obesity in the developed world. Still, scientists insist such vital signs do not explain everything. > "Those kinds of physical differences may have some effect but I think the other areas are more important. We've learned from Covid that there is no simple explanation for any of the phenomena that we're seeing. It's a lot of factors contributing to the final outcome," says Prof Fukuda. Well, the professor was shown to be too conservative as we now have more data and know how strong the effect of these physical differences are. You know, facts, those inconvenient things that are better than (incessant) speculation. "It's a lot of factors" is true but attributing a cause to factors that don't exist is a weakpoint in any argument. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=false&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=USA~GBR~CAN~DEU~FRA~JPN https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor... [2] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53188847#main-heading https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53188847#main-heading