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Oh, for sure. Apple pays a huge premium, but Apple also sells premium devices. Most of the time, if you're buying the most high-end stuff, you're overpaying. E
by mdasen 4y ago
Oh, for sure. Apple pays a huge premium, but Apple also sells premium devices.
Most of the time, if you're buying the most high-end stuff, you're overpaying. Even within a processor family, when you buy the high-end, you're often paying a big premium for marginally more performance.
I'm not saying that AMD isn't being smart. AMD's main competition is Intel and Intel has been behind enough that it probably doesn't make sense to be paying the huge costs of a new node. However, that might change if Intel's fabs get back on track. Intel 4 is supposed to be launching in 2023 with Intel 3 following in 2024. If Intel 4 launches in 2023 and comes in at the estimated 202 MTr/mm2, that'll be 38% greater than TSMC's 4nm and 47% greater than Samsung's 4nm.
Apple is in the mobile space where power and space are at a premium and they're selling premium devices. While power does matter in laptops, desktops, and servers, it isn't quite as acute.
However, it's possible that AMD will need to become more aggressive if Intel is able to hit its roadmap. If Intel 4 chips hit the market in late 2023 with a decent advantage, that might not bode well for AMD who has been riding TSMC's fab advantage to an extent. Again, I don't want to sound like I'm knocking AMD, but when Intel was shipping 14nm and they were shipping 7nm, they had a 2.5x density advantage. It's looking like the days where AMD has such a large advantage in process will be gone. That doesn't mean they'll fall behind, but I think it does mean that they might need to adopt new nodes faster than they have.
I do agree that AMD's pace has been reasonable given previous and current market conditions. I just think that the market conditions seem like they're going to shift over the next two years. It's one thing not to adopt TSMC's newest stuff when Intel is years behind TSMC's stuff from a year or two ago. It's another thing when a 2023 Intel might be sitting between TSMC's 5nm and 3nm and you're on TSMC's 5nm and when a 2024 Intel might be matching TSMC's 3nm and you're looking to launch 3nm in 2025. But we'll have to see if Intel can pull it off.
- shmerl 4y agoI just hope it won't cause prices creep. CPUs and GPUs were already gradually getting more expensive for same kind of levels with recent generations and this rush to the newest node would only make it worse, unless increased scale of production will help lower prices.