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AMD has said that 3nm will come with Zen 5c. The Zen 5 is set to launch in 2024 with the Zen 5c happening after that so most likely in 2025. Zen 4 just launche

by mdasen 4y ago

AMD has said that 3nm will come with Zen 5c. The Zen 5 is set to launch in 2024 with the Zen 5c happening after that so most likely in 2025. Zen 4 just launched at 5nm after Apple had been using 5nm for 2 years. It looks like Apple will be the only 3nm customer in 2023. Apple is not only selling a lot of phones, but they also need a follow-up to the M1/M2 processors (and the M2 is a very marginal improvement). I don't want to sound like I'm knocking the M1 because it's truly amazing to have an M1 laptop, but Apple is shipping a 2-year-old processor in all its laptops. While the Mac might not use as many chips as their phone biz, the chips are larger which means using up more of TSMC's capacity. Again, it took AMD 2 years to get to 5nm after Apple launched their 5nm chips. AMD might get to 3nm faster than they got to 5nm, but I wouldn't count on it. Qualcomm is sticking with 4nm for their 2023 Snapdragons. Samsung's transistor density for their "3nm" 2GAE is basically equivalent to TSMC's 4nm (while TSMC's 3nm is nearly 50% higher). If the question is "should I wait for something that's just around the corner," I'd have to say no. AMD does have a Zen 4c on its roadmap at 4nm, but 4nm can be a bit misleading since we're talking about TSMC improving density by around 6% (and Samsung's 4nm trailing TSMC's 5nm). So I wouldn't wait for "4nm" either. There's always uncertainty around when new stuff will happen, but it'll likely be more than 2 years before AMD moves to 3nm. Remember: we aren't even at the point where anyone has launched a 3nm part that you can buy. Let's say that Apple introduces something in April for their Macs and then launches new iPhones in the fall at 3nm. That's going to be using up a lot of TSMC's capacity through 2023 and into 2024. Qualcomm will want their 2024 chips to be 3nm in Spring 2024. So maybe late 2024 or 2025 some 3nm capacity starts being available for AMD and they can launch 3nm Zen 5c then. Officially, this is what we have from AMD: Zen 4 - 5nm (2022) editorial note: this ended up being September 27, 2022 Zen 4 V-Cache 5nm (2023) Zen 4C - 4nm (2023) Zen 5 - 4nm (2024) Zen 5 V-Cache - 4nm (2024+) Zen 5C - 3nm - (2024+) Could we see Zen 5c in 2024? Maybe, but it seems like a stretch. TSMC's 3nm seems a tiny bit behind schedule and given that Zen 5c is targeting "2024+", it just doesn't seem likely. So, there won't be an update to 3nm for Zen 4 and even Zen 5 won't launch at 3nm.

shmerl 4y ago
Using the node too soon can be a bad idea too, becasue it's going to be overpriced and that will be passed to the end user. I think AMD's pace of using the node is reasonable. It's Apple who is trying to jump the gun and use it sooner than normal making it cost way more than it could otherwise. TSMC charges way more for the newest node and then prices go down over time.
- mdasen 4y ago
  Oh, for sure. Apple pays a huge premium, but Apple also sells premium devices. Most of the time, if you're buying the most high-end stuff, you're overpaying. Even within a processor family, when you buy the high-end, you're often paying a big premium for marginally more performance. I'm not saying that AMD isn't being smart. AMD's main competition is Intel and Intel has been behind enough that it probably doesn't make sense to be paying the huge costs of a new node. However, that might change if Intel's fabs get back on track. Intel 4 is supposed to be launching in 2023 with Intel 3 following in 2024. If Intel 4 launches in 2023 and comes in at the estimated 202 MTr/mm2, that'll be 38% greater than TSMC's 4nm and 47% greater than Samsung's 4nm. Apple is in the mobile space where power and space are at a premium and they're selling premium devices. While power does matter in laptops, desktops, and servers, it isn't quite as acute. However, it's possible that AMD will need to become more aggressive if Intel is able to hit its roadmap. If Intel 4 chips hit the market in late 2023 with a decent advantage, that might not bode well for AMD who has been riding TSMC's fab advantage to an extent. Again, I don't want to sound like I'm knocking AMD, but when Intel was shipping 14nm and they were shipping 7nm, they had a 2.5x density advantage. It's looking like the days where AMD has such a large advantage in process will be gone. That doesn't mean they'll fall behind, but I think it does mean that they might need to adopt new nodes faster than they have. I do agree that AMD's pace has been reasonable given previous and current market conditions. I just think that the market conditions seem like they're going to shift over the next two years. It's one thing not to adopt TSMC's newest stuff when Intel is years behind TSMC's stuff from a year or two ago. It's another thing when a 2023 Intel might be sitting between TSMC's 5nm and 3nm and you're on TSMC's 5nm and when a 2024 Intel might be matching TSMC's 3nm and you're looking to launch 3nm in 2025. But we'll have to see if Intel can pull it off.
  - shmerl 4y ago
    I just hope it won't cause prices creep. CPUs and GPUs were already gradually getting more expensive for same kind of levels with recent generations and this rush to the newest node would only make it worse, unless increased scale of production will help lower prices.

by mdasen 4y ago

shmerl 4y ago

Using the node too soon can be a bad idea too, becasue it's going to be overpriced and that will be passed to the end user. I think AMD's pace of using the node is reasonable. It's Apple who is trying to jump the gun and use it sooner than normal making it cost way more than it could otherwise. TSMC charges way more for the newest node and then prices go down over time.

mdasen 4y ago
Oh, for sure. Apple pays a huge premium, but Apple also sells premium devices. Most of the time, if you're buying the most high-end stuff, you're overpaying. Even within a processor family, when you buy the high-end, you're often paying a big premium for marginally more performance. I'm not saying that AMD isn't being smart. AMD's main competition is Intel and Intel has been behind enough that it probably doesn't make sense to be paying the huge costs of a new node. However, that might change if Intel's fabs get back on track. Intel 4 is supposed to be launching in 2023 with Intel 3 following in 2024. If Intel 4 launches in 2023 and comes in at the estimated 202 MTr/mm2, that'll be 38% greater than TSMC's 4nm and 47% greater than Samsung's 4nm. Apple is in the mobile space where power and space are at a premium and they're selling premium devices. While power does matter in laptops, desktops, and servers, it isn't quite as acute. However, it's possible that AMD will need to become more aggressive if Intel is able to hit its roadmap. If Intel 4 chips hit the market in late 2023 with a decent advantage, that might not bode well for AMD who has been riding TSMC's fab advantage to an extent. Again, I don't want to sound like I'm knocking AMD, but when Intel was shipping 14nm and they were shipping 7nm, they had a 2.5x density advantage. It's looking like the days where AMD has such a large advantage in process will be gone. That doesn't mean they'll fall behind, but I think it does mean that they might need to adopt new nodes faster than they have. I do agree that AMD's pace has been reasonable given previous and current market conditions. I just think that the market conditions seem like they're going to shift over the next two years. It's one thing not to adopt TSMC's newest stuff when Intel is years behind TSMC's stuff from a year or two ago. It's another thing when a 2023 Intel might be sitting between TSMC's 5nm and 3nm and you're on TSMC's 5nm and when a 2024 Intel might be matching TSMC's 3nm and you're looking to launch 3nm in 2025. But we'll have to see if Intel can pull it off.
- shmerl 4y ago
  I just hope it won't cause prices creep. CPUs and GPUs were already gradually getting more expensive for same kind of levels with recent generations and this rush to the newest node would only make it worse, unless increased scale of production will help lower prices.