> So seeing 8% y-o-y growth is unsurprising when your basis is an incredibly weak prior year. Yeah, a bit, but if the opposite had happened ("Vietnam's economy

> So seeing 8% y-o-y growth is unsurprising when your basis is an incredibly weak prior year. Yeah, a bit, but if the opposite had happened ("Vietnam's economy shrunk 1% in 2022, its worst recession in 25 years") one could also say "this is unsurprising, the rot started in 2021 where it only grew by 2.59% after years of 7%+ growth". Knowing only the GDP numbers, I'd be more likely to predict the latter scenario: after all, the first thing to do in time-series forecasting is to predict tomorrow's weather will be the same as today's. Knowing a bit more - that there was a global pandemic in 2021 and restrictions mostly lifted in 2022 - might make me more likely to predict higher values. Knowing a bit more - that interest rates in the West have been hiked, there have been high profile tech layoffs, and everyone is harping on about a potential global recession - would make me think again of predicting a contraction. And once you know everything, nothing could be considered "surprising"!