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I hate growth stats that ignore the basis. Vietnam’s largest city locked down for 2 months from Sept to Oct 2021. People weren’t allowed to leave their homes.

by refurb 4y ago

I hate growth stats that ignore the basis. Vietnam’s largest city locked down for 2 months from Sept to Oct 2021. People weren’t allowed to leave their homes. The economy shrank by 7% in Q3’21 and the economy as a whole only grew by 2.59% in 2021 when it was 7%+ the year before. So seeing 8% y-o-y growth is unsurprising when your basis is an incredibly weak prior year. Almost half of that growth is making up for what was lost in 2021.

dmurray 4y ago
> So seeing 8% y-o-y growth is unsurprising when your basis is an incredibly weak prior year. Yeah, a bit, but if the opposite had happened ("Vietnam's economy shrunk 1% in 2022, its worst recession in 25 years") one could also say "this is unsurprising, the rot started in 2021 where it only grew by 2.59% after years of 7%+ growth". Knowing only the GDP numbers, I'd be more likely to predict the latter scenario: after all, the first thing to do in time-series forecasting is to predict tomorrow's weather will be the same as today's. Knowing a bit more - that there was a global pandemic in 2021 and restrictions mostly lifted in 2022 - might make me more likely to predict higher values. Knowing a bit more - that interest rates in the West have been hiked, there have been high profile tech layoffs, and everyone is harping on about a potential global recession - would make me think again of predicting a contraction. And once you know everything, nothing could be considered "surprising"!
- vasco 4y ago
  When "knowing a bit more" reverses the conclusion, and you can go several levels deep in the thought exercise, it's so satisfying.
- diceduckmonk 4y ago
  > one could also say "this is unsurprising Sure, but that still doesn’t make Vietnam’s 8% growth surprising either. We can agree it’s a high variance and unprecedented environment.
npn 4y ago
8% is still admirable considering the largest trade partner of Vietnam is China whom still has strict zero-COVID policy through the year.
gfarah 4y ago
It seems this applies to other countries as well. E.g Colombia is expected to increase it's GDP this year between 8.1% and 8.3%[1] [1] https://www.oecd.org/economy/colombia-economic-snapshot/ https://www.oecd.org/economy/colombia-economic-snapshot/

by refurb 4y ago

dmurray 4y ago

> So seeing 8% y-o-y growth is unsurprising when your basis is an incredibly weak prior year. Yeah, a bit, but if the opposite had happened ("Vietnam's economy shrunk 1% in 2022, its worst recession in 25 years") one could also say "this is unsurprising, the rot started in 2021 where it only grew by 2.59% after years of 7%+ growth". Knowing only the GDP numbers, I'd be more likely to predict the latter scenario: after all, the first thing to do in time-series forecasting is to predict tomorrow's weather will be the same as today's. Knowing a bit more - that there was a global pandemic in 2021 and restrictions mostly lifted in 2022 - might make me more likely to predict higher values. Knowing a bit more - that interest rates in the West have been hiked, there have been high profile tech layoffs, and everyone is harping on about a potential global recession - would make me think again of predicting a contraction. And once you know everything, nothing could be considered "surprising"!

vasco 4y ago
When "knowing a bit more" reverses the conclusion, and you can go several levels deep in the thought exercise, it's so satisfying.
diceduckmonk 4y ago
> one could also say "this is unsurprising Sure, but that still doesn’t make Vietnam’s 8% growth surprising either. We can agree it’s a high variance and unprecedented environment.

npn 4y ago

8% is still admirable considering the largest trade partner of Vietnam is China whom still has strict zero-COVID policy through the year.

gfarah 4y ago

It seems this applies to other countries as well. E.g Colombia is expected to increase it's GDP this year between 8.1% and 8.3%[1] [1] https://www.oecd.org/economy/colombia-economic-snapshot/ https://www.oecd.org/economy/colombia-economic-snapshot/