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“That’s a certainty” - based on what evidence? Most indicators show that we have reached (or will reach within a year or two) peak global fossil fuel consumpti
by derriz 4y ago
“That’s a certainty” - based on what evidence?
Most indicators show that we have reached (or will reach within a year or two) peak global fossil fuel consumption. Even the EIA (who have been notoriously conservative in recognizing the transformative effects of renewables in energy markets) are conceding as much.
https://www.iea.org/news/the-world-s-coal-consumption-is-set-to-reach-a-new-high-in-2022-as-the-energy-crisis-shakes-markets https://www.iea.org/news/the-world-s-coal-consumption-is-set...
- slothtrop 4y agoThere is one throwaway line on there with no explanation. As it stands, 75% of fossil fuel use is not for electricity and is not yet abated with new technologies. Demand is always rising (emerging economies plus immigration) so I see no reason to believe we are anywhere near "peak" use. I think the trajectory of emissions tells the better story.
- derriz 4y agoI don’t see how the trajectory of emissions can differ from the trajectory of fossil fuel consumption. Yes electricity generation accounts for roughly a quarter of emissions - very roughly the other quarters are due to transport, domestic heating/cooking and industrial. Hence the decarbonization of electricity generation is being pursued along with the electrification of the latter sources of emissions. Given the trends, I’m quite confident we’ll be successful lowering emissions. I’m less confident that it won’t be too late to avoid catastrophic climate change.
- slothtrop 4y ago> I don’t see how the trajectory of emissions can differ from the trajectory of fossil fuel consumption. That is exactly my point? Emissions are rising.