6 ms·

> Testing rate is a meaningless statistic, because the criteria for testing vary between countries and over time. Testing is useful for two reasons - helping p

> Testing rate is a meaningless statistic, because the criteria for testing vary between countries and over time. Testing is useful for two reasons - helping people who may have the disease (obviously), and for seroprevalence. Since Japan's testing was so low those seroprevalence statistics are lacking. As we know now, severity of the disease is linked to the overall health of the individual. It's quite possible those waves you call nontrivial were just as large but that the health of the population meant the severity of symptoms (which is what actually makes a wave trivial or not, along with availability of health services) was lower and continued to be lower. I've been in Japan for the whole of the pandemic and to claim that people were isolated - either from each other or the outside world in any way that is meaningful for disease or contact tracing was of a high level is to contradict reality. Finally, the article I shared by Bhattacharya and Packalen goes over contact tracing and points out why it is futile in the case of COVID-19, but Martin Kulldorff, Bhattacharya's infamous co-signatory on the Great Barrington Declaration sums it up in two tweets[1][2]: > Contact tracing, testing and isolation is important against many infectious disease outbreaks, such as Ebola and post-vaccine measles. It is ineffective, naïve and counter-productive against COVID19, influenza, pre-vaccine measles, etc, and by definition, against any pandemic. > Problems when one or more of: (1) disease is widely spread, (2) there are many mild or asymptomatic cases, (3) there is pre-symptomatic transmission, (4) we cannot identify the first index case in a given population, or how that person got infected. [1] https://twitter.com/MartinKulldorff/status/1307377809619288065 https://twitter.com/MartinKulldorff/status/13073778096192880... [2] https://twitter.com/MartinKulldorff/status/1307381297917161472 https://twitter.com/MartinKulldorff/status/13073812979171614...

jltsiren 4y ago
> It's quite possible those waves you call nontrivial were just as large but that the health of the population meant the severity of symptoms (which is what actually makes a wave trivial or not, along with availability of health services) was lower and continued to be lower. That's why you should not look at individual data points in isolation. Based on the numbers that were reported, the COVID waves that hit Japan became worse over time. That already suggests that the waves that hit in 2020 and 2021 were not particularly big. If you compare internationally, you can find similar patterns in countries that mostly managed to avoid COVID in 2020 and 2021 before succumbing to Omicron. In contrast, countries that were hit bad early in the pandemic had a lot of infections but fewer deaths from Omicron, largely due to existing immunity.
- brigandish 4y ago
  > Based on the numbers that were reported, And there's the reason testing to get seroprevalence data is so important, because what follows that sentence is pure speculation. > If you compare internationally, you can find similar patterns in countries that mostly managed to avoid COVID in 2020 and 2021 before succumbing to Omicron. Again, - Japan had no internal lockdown - International travel still occurred - Contact tracing does not work in a pandemic, especially one for a respiratory virus that has already spread[1], closing the barn doors after the horse has bolted is not a valid proposition as actual seroprevalence testing showed in early 2020 that contradicted official figures: > Results: ... These numbers were 396 to 858-fold more than confirmed cases with PCR testing in Kobe City. > Conclusions: Our cross-sectional serological study suggests that the number of people with seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 infection in Kobe, Japan is far more than the confirmed cases by PCR testing. There are more of these types of study[2][3], if you care to look, that hint more that heavily at the reality. > Results: We estimated that as of December 31, 2021, 3.07 million (CrI: 2.05-4.24 million) people had been infected in Japan, which is 1.77 times higher than the 1.73 million reported cases. Our meta-analysis confirmed that these findings were consistent with the intermittent seroprevalence studies conducted in Japan. and > In conclusion, our cross-sectional serological study suggests that the actual number of people with SARS-CoV-2 infection in Kobe, Japan was estimated to be lower than our previous study, yet was more than the confirmed cases by PCR testing. Lockdown logic is not valid, in theory or reality. Stay slim, stay active and your country too can remain largely unaffected[4], in a way that is statistically significant - to the point it hits one over the head with a hammer - and backed up by actual evidence, unlike lockdowns and masks. > There was a consistent dose‒response association across lower physical activity categories, with the strongest association comparing the always active with the always inactive category. Patients in the always inactive category (median EVS≤10 minutes/week) had 91% higher odds of hospitalization (OR=1.91; 95% CI=1.68, 2.17), 139% higher odds of a deterioration event (Appendix Figure 2, available online) (OR=2.39; 95% CI=1.94, 2.94), and 291% higher odds of death (OR=3.91; 95% CI=3.01, 5.07) than patients in the always active category. and from[5], the most succinct and blunt way to put it: > Is overweight associated with the severity of COVID-19 and the need for hospital treatment? > Yes. The figures speak for themselves. Worth a read, I highly recommend it. Finally, this assertion of yours is patently false: > but fewer deaths from Omicron, largely due to existing immunity. South Africa has entered the chat. [1] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33898863/#article-details https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33898863/#article-details [2] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35961504/#article-details https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35961504/#article-details [3] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9191319/#main-content https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9191319/#main-c... [4] https://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-3797(22)00526-8/fulltext https://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-3797(22)00526-8/ful... [5] https://www.worldobesity.org/resources/resource-library/covid-19-and-obesity-the-2021-atlas https://www.worldobesity.org/resources/resource-library/covi...

jltsiren 4y ago

> It's quite possible those waves you call nontrivial were just as large but that the health of the population meant the severity of symptoms (which is what actually makes a wave trivial or not, along with availability of health services) was lower and continued to be lower. That's why you should not look at individual data points in isolation. Based on the numbers that were reported, the COVID waves that hit Japan became worse over time. That already suggests that the waves that hit in 2020 and 2021 were not particularly big. If you compare internationally, you can find similar patterns in countries that mostly managed to avoid COVID in 2020 and 2021 before succumbing to Omicron. In contrast, countries that were hit bad early in the pandemic had a lot of infections but fewer deaths from Omicron, largely due to existing immunity.

brigandish 4y ago
> Based on the numbers that were reported, And there's the reason testing to get seroprevalence data is so important, because what follows that sentence is pure speculation. > If you compare internationally, you can find similar patterns in countries that mostly managed to avoid COVID in 2020 and 2021 before succumbing to Omicron. Again, - Japan had no internal lockdown - International travel still occurred - Contact tracing does not work in a pandemic, especially one for a respiratory virus that has already spread[1], closing the barn doors after the horse has bolted is not a valid proposition as actual seroprevalence testing showed in early 2020 that contradicted official figures: > Results: ... These numbers were 396 to 858-fold more than confirmed cases with PCR testing in Kobe City. > Conclusions: Our cross-sectional serological study suggests that the number of people with seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 infection in Kobe, Japan is far more than the confirmed cases by PCR testing. There are more of these types of study[2][3], if you care to look, that hint more that heavily at the reality. > Results: We estimated that as of December 31, 2021, 3.07 million (CrI: 2.05-4.24 million) people had been infected in Japan, which is 1.77 times higher than the 1.73 million reported cases. Our meta-analysis confirmed that these findings were consistent with the intermittent seroprevalence studies conducted in Japan. and > In conclusion, our cross-sectional serological study suggests that the actual number of people with SARS-CoV-2 infection in Kobe, Japan was estimated to be lower than our previous study, yet was more than the confirmed cases by PCR testing. Lockdown logic is not valid, in theory or reality. Stay slim, stay active and your country too can remain largely unaffected[4], in a way that is statistically significant - to the point it hits one over the head with a hammer - and backed up by actual evidence, unlike lockdowns and masks. > There was a consistent dose‒response association across lower physical activity categories, with the strongest association comparing the always active with the always inactive category. Patients in the always inactive category (median EVS≤10 minutes/week) had 91% higher odds of hospitalization (OR=1.91; 95% CI=1.68, 2.17), 139% higher odds of a deterioration event (Appendix Figure 2, available online) (OR=2.39; 95% CI=1.94, 2.94), and 291% higher odds of death (OR=3.91; 95% CI=3.01, 5.07) than patients in the always active category. and from[5], the most succinct and blunt way to put it: > Is overweight associated with the severity of COVID-19 and the need for hospital treatment? > Yes. The figures speak for themselves. Worth a read, I highly recommend it. Finally, this assertion of yours is patently false: > but fewer deaths from Omicron, largely due to existing immunity. South Africa has entered the chat. [1] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33898863/#article-details https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33898863/#article-details [2] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35961504/#article-details https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35961504/#article-details [3] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9191319/#main-content https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9191319/#main-c... [4] https://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-3797(22)00526-8/fulltext https://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-3797(22)00526-8/ful... [5] https://www.worldobesity.org/resources/resource-library/covid-19-and-obesity-the-2021-atlas https://www.worldobesity.org/resources/resource-library/covi...