5 ms·

A few days ago I read on a news aggregator somewhere: "Nearly 37 million people in China may have been infected with Covid-19 on a single day this week, accord

A few days ago I read on a news aggregator somewhere: "Nearly 37 million people in China may have been infected with Covid-19 on a single day this week, according to estimates from the government's top health authority, making the country's outbreak by far the world's largest" At that rate they'd infect the entire population in 38 days, which is kind of unbelievable. There's no way their entire population still has zero immunity at this point, so if we assumed this rate were real and persisted - how long could it really last for? It seems like it'd be over within weeks to my totally unqualified understanding...

moomin 4y ago
[flagged]
- pengaru 4y ago
  > The biggest problem with your understanding is that catching covid builds up immunity. In fact it appears the opposite is true: covid is causing immuno-deficiency. Each infection gets worse than the last. Some serious credible citations needed for that apparent hogwash.
  - arez 4y ago
    can't be true imo that would mean the virus would circulate more and more, which isn't the case. The numbers are going down in almost all countries due to build up of immunity, because people got it multiple times. In most countries the virus became endemic and the waves are getting smaller
    - bobdobbs666 4y ago
      https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35027728/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35027728/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33884644/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33884644/ here are a couple studies showing that covid can cause immune system deregulation effects. there are plenty more if you go and look. even mild cases have been shown to cause last impact to the immune system. There are several preprints that speculate this immune system deregulation is partially responsible for the abrupt spike in rsv and flu happening.
      - remarkEon 4y ago
        Those links you posted are about acute cases, which probably means those patients had other health issues (being overweight, diabetes etc). It's not a convincing argument that there's some kind of vast immune depletion going on in the general populous as a result of covid.
  - TomVDB 4y ago
    I think it is well established that repeat COVID infections have an increasingly severe impact on your body. It is also true that COVID can weaken your general immune system. But that doesn’t mean that getting COVID won’t increase your immunity against a future COVID infection, temporarily at least, just the way the effectiveness of the vaccine is temporary.
- thelittleone 4y ago
  I had it twice. First time was far worse than the second.
- altacc 4y ago
  I'd modify your statement to be "covid might be causing immuno-deficiency in some people". There is some evidence that long covid, affecting about 7.5% of those who get covid, is the result of a suppressed immune system [example refs below]. There's a lot of anecdotal discussion about a possible larger effect and there is ongoing research to try and determine if there has been any effect on this year's northern hemisphere flu numbers from the effects of coronavirus infection, social isolation or vaccinations but there is no conclusion yet. More variants is a concern but seeing how corona has been allowed to run free around the rest of the world it's unfair to single out China here. The rest of the world is busy producing new variants, which are reacting to the local vaccines and becoming better at evading protection. China has different vaccines, so likely to produce variants that avoid those vaccines, which have never been good enough to begin with. Anywhere in the world might produce a variant with better spread than Omnicron and also more severe disease. https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1009742 https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/j... https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.30.21261234v1.full https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.30.21261234v... https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(22)00491-6/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5...
  - FooBarWidget 4y ago
    > which have never been good enough to begin with It's time we retire this media talking point which is based on severe distortion of the data and frankly prejudice. Research shows that 3-dose Sinovac is about just as effective as 3-dose Pfizer with the original Omicron against severe illness and death. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(22)00345-0/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... Neither Pfizer) nor Sinovac are very good against preventing spread. And also, for both, the boosters' main protection only last for a few months, which is why we now live in a "booster subscription reality". Furthermore, the BF.1 and BQ.1 variants dominant in China are mutations that evade existing immunity again meaning that neither Pfizer (even the bivalent one or Sinovac are very good against current variants. Chinese also have had fewer boosts than western countries because there was no need to. Whereas here we recommend people to get boosted every few months, in China many people had their last dose a year ago. This also plays a major factor in immunity that's not related to whether the vaccines themselves work or not. The media narrative of "Chinese vaccines don't work" was based on the worst-case data in some early trials (efficacy depends on context) against the original strain, and the media and the public just kept latching on that idea without looking at other data and without recognizing that Omicron is also defeating Pfizer.
- TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
  > In fact it appears the opposite is true: covid is causing immuno-deficiency. Each infection gets worse than the last. You just described positive feedback loop. If that would be case, everyone on this planet would be already dead.
jiggawatts 4y ago
Back of the envelope maths is that yes, it really can spread that fast. If it was just a mild cold, nobody would care, but the risk is that China’s health system could get totally overwhelmed. The currently circulating strains are milder than the original but spread much faster. Even with improved treatment plans based on years if experience, it’s going to be a sudden shock to the system.
- PicassoCTs 4y ago
  They also made it up as this hyper deadly disease, that basically has killed of half the world outside of china. They even tried to censor the audience in the soccer worldcup, to prevent the mainlanders realizing what a bullshit stories this was. Well, it didn't work and now the ccps official narrative causes whiplash.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
- ngcc_hk 4y ago
  The omega might be. But not wuhan and delta which still with china. The question so whether omega has a chance to win the war behind the collapse. I am anti-communist china but not anti-human. Sad they even tried to use that to argue again the white paper movement, instead of inappropriate action last few years - starting from let people fly out form wuhan and killing Italian in the first stop, among others. Will jan 8 not just an issue in china as they let out chinese to the world (like via Hong Kong etc) … btw.
ravel-bar-foo 4y ago
Much much sooner than 38 days. Most of the big cities have already peaked, as measured by Baidu searches. Half of Beijing was already infected last week.
- Melting_Harps 4y ago
  > Much much sooner than 38 days. Most of the big cities have already peaked, as measured by Baidu searches. Half of Beijing was already infected last week. Have they ID'd the strain? Because given China's aging population, and the higher mortality susceptibility, could this really be the the thing makes them justify their lockdown measures again if the deaths get high enough?
  - ravel-bar-foo 4y ago
    I saw it mentioned offhand recently in a way that indicated it was an Omicron (BN.5? BA.3?), but don't know where that strain ID came from. I would assume 1.4B new hosts provides plenty of possibilities for the virus to explore the space of possible mutations, and a new variant is thus pretty much inevitable. Edit: apparently there are 50 or so strains that have been identified in China and no detailed data is coming out right now. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-covid-19-surge-new-coronavirus-variant-risk/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-covid-19-surge-new-corona...
iudqnolq 4y ago
What you're missing is that a person can get COVID repeatedly. Prior infection provides less protection than vaccination, and neither provides completely protection.
- touisteur 4y ago
  Wait, reinfection is supposed to be months later, not weeks, right? I thought I'd read that post-infection immunity lasted around 10 months?
  - iudqnolq 4y ago
    Yep, although I'm not sure about that exact figure. (However, even if mild, the direct consequences of the initial infection could cause issues for weeks.) But I read the parent comment as saying that after a few weeks Covid would no longer be a problem, and would continue not being a problem indefinitely.
  - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
    > thought I'd read that post-infection immunity lasted around 10 months? Isn’t that strain specific? I know unvaccinated folks who had back-to-back cross-strain infections inside a few months.
    - touisteur 4y ago
      Ugh that sucks. Now I need to go back and check recommendations on booster/vaccines and prior infections...
- thedrbrian 4y ago
  >Prior infection provides less protection than vaccination Citation needed.
Traubenfuchs 4y ago
They are quite obviously going for a rapid saturation approach to catch up to the rest of the world. This will kill a lot of the old and sick, it will break the health system, but it will be done in a month or two, which is ultimately good to restore Chinas economy and health systems to normal. 2.5 years covid history and multiple waves compressed into 2-3 months. Huzzah!

moomin 4y ago

[flagged]

pengaru 4y ago
> The biggest problem with your understanding is that catching covid builds up immunity. In fact it appears the opposite is true: covid is causing immuno-deficiency. Each infection gets worse than the last. Some serious credible citations needed for that apparent hogwash.
- arez 4y ago
  can't be true imo that would mean the virus would circulate more and more, which isn't the case. The numbers are going down in almost all countries due to build up of immunity, because people got it multiple times. In most countries the virus became endemic and the waves are getting smaller
  - bobdobbs666 4y ago
    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35027728/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35027728/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33884644/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33884644/ here are a couple studies showing that covid can cause immune system deregulation effects. there are plenty more if you go and look. even mild cases have been shown to cause last impact to the immune system. There are several preprints that speculate this immune system deregulation is partially responsible for the abrupt spike in rsv and flu happening.
    - remarkEon 4y ago
      Those links you posted are about acute cases, which probably means those patients had other health issues (being overweight, diabetes etc). It's not a convincing argument that there's some kind of vast immune depletion going on in the general populous as a result of covid.
- TomVDB 4y ago
  I think it is well established that repeat COVID infections have an increasingly severe impact on your body. It is also true that COVID can weaken your general immune system. But that doesn’t mean that getting COVID won’t increase your immunity against a future COVID infection, temporarily at least, just the way the effectiveness of the vaccine is temporary.
thelittleone 4y ago
I had it twice. First time was far worse than the second.
altacc 4y ago
I'd modify your statement to be "covid might be causing immuno-deficiency in some people". There is some evidence that long covid, affecting about 7.5% of those who get covid, is the result of a suppressed immune system [example refs below]. There's a lot of anecdotal discussion about a possible larger effect and there is ongoing research to try and determine if there has been any effect on this year's northern hemisphere flu numbers from the effects of coronavirus infection, social isolation or vaccinations but there is no conclusion yet. More variants is a concern but seeing how corona has been allowed to run free around the rest of the world it's unfair to single out China here. The rest of the world is busy producing new variants, which are reacting to the local vaccines and becoming better at evading protection. China has different vaccines, so likely to produce variants that avoid those vaccines, which have never been good enough to begin with. Anywhere in the world might produce a variant with better spread than Omnicron and also more severe disease. https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1009742 https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/j... https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.30.21261234v1.full https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.30.21261234v... https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(22)00491-6/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5...
- FooBarWidget 4y ago
  > which have never been good enough to begin with It's time we retire this media talking point which is based on severe distortion of the data and frankly prejudice. Research shows that 3-dose Sinovac is about just as effective as 3-dose Pfizer with the original Omicron against severe illness and death. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(22)00345-0/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... Neither Pfizer) nor Sinovac are very good against preventing spread. And also, for both, the boosters' main protection only last for a few months, which is why we now live in a "booster subscription reality". Furthermore, the BF.1 and BQ.1 variants dominant in China are mutations that evade existing immunity again meaning that neither Pfizer (even the bivalent one or Sinovac are very good against current variants. Chinese also have had fewer boosts than western countries because there was no need to. Whereas here we recommend people to get boosted every few months, in China many people had their last dose a year ago. This also plays a major factor in immunity that's not related to whether the vaccines themselves work or not. The media narrative of "Chinese vaccines don't work" was based on the worst-case data in some early trials (efficacy depends on context) against the original strain, and the media and the public just kept latching on that idea without looking at other data and without recognizing that Omicron is also defeating Pfizer.
TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
> In fact it appears the opposite is true: covid is causing immuno-deficiency. Each infection gets worse than the last. You just described positive feedback loop. If that would be case, everyone on this planet would be already dead.

jiggawatts 4y ago

Back of the envelope maths is that yes, it really can spread that fast. If it was just a mild cold, nobody would care, but the risk is that China’s health system could get totally overwhelmed. The currently circulating strains are milder than the original but spread much faster. Even with improved treatment plans based on years if experience, it’s going to be a sudden shock to the system.

PicassoCTs 4y ago
They also made it up as this hyper deadly disease, that basically has killed of half the world outside of china. They even tried to censor the audience in the soccer worldcup, to prevent the mainlanders realizing what a bullshit stories this was. Well, it didn't work and now the ccps official narrative causes whiplash.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
ngcc_hk 4y ago
The omega might be. But not wuhan and delta which still with china. The question so whether omega has a chance to win the war behind the collapse. I am anti-communist china but not anti-human. Sad they even tried to use that to argue again the white paper movement, instead of inappropriate action last few years - starting from let people fly out form wuhan and killing Italian in the first stop, among others. Will jan 8 not just an issue in china as they let out chinese to the world (like via Hong Kong etc) … btw.

ravel-bar-foo 4y ago

Much much sooner than 38 days. Most of the big cities have already peaked, as measured by Baidu searches. Half of Beijing was already infected last week.

Melting_Harps 4y ago
> Much much sooner than 38 days. Most of the big cities have already peaked, as measured by Baidu searches. Half of Beijing was already infected last week. Have they ID'd the strain? Because given China's aging population, and the higher mortality susceptibility, could this really be the the thing makes them justify their lockdown measures again if the deaths get high enough?
- ravel-bar-foo 4y ago
  I saw it mentioned offhand recently in a way that indicated it was an Omicron (BN.5? BA.3?), but don't know where that strain ID came from. I would assume 1.4B new hosts provides plenty of possibilities for the virus to explore the space of possible mutations, and a new variant is thus pretty much inevitable. Edit: apparently there are 50 or so strains that have been identified in China and no detailed data is coming out right now. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-covid-19-surge-new-coronavirus-variant-risk/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-covid-19-surge-new-corona...

iudqnolq 4y ago

What you're missing is that a person can get COVID repeatedly. Prior infection provides less protection than vaccination, and neither provides completely protection.

touisteur 4y ago
Wait, reinfection is supposed to be months later, not weeks, right? I thought I'd read that post-infection immunity lasted around 10 months?
- iudqnolq 4y ago
  Yep, although I'm not sure about that exact figure. (However, even if mild, the direct consequences of the initial infection could cause issues for weeks.) But I read the parent comment as saying that after a few weeks Covid would no longer be a problem, and would continue not being a problem indefinitely.
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago
  > thought I'd read that post-infection immunity lasted around 10 months? Isn’t that strain specific? I know unvaccinated folks who had back-to-back cross-strain infections inside a few months.
  - touisteur 4y ago
    Ugh that sucks. Now I need to go back and check recommendations on booster/vaccines and prior infections...
thedrbrian 4y ago
>Prior infection provides less protection than vaccination Citation needed.

Traubenfuchs 4y ago

They are quite obviously going for a rapid saturation approach to catch up to the rest of the world. This will kill a lot of the old and sick, it will break the health system, but it will be done in a month or two, which is ultimately good to restore Chinas economy and health systems to normal. 2.5 years covid history and multiple waves compressed into 2-3 months. Huzzah!