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Lead Crime Hypothesis May Be Pure Publication Bias [pdf]
- barry-cotter 4y ago> The Lead-Crime Hypothesis: A Meta-Analysis > Does lead pollution increase crime? We perform the first meta-analysis of the effect of lead on crime by pooling 529 estimates from 24 studies. We find evidence of publication bias across a range of tests. This publication bias means that the effect of lead is overstated in the literature. We perform over 1 million meta-regression specifications, controlling for this bias, and conditioning on observable between-study heterogeneity. When we restrict our analysis to only high-quality studies that address endogeneity the estimated mean effect size is close to zero. When we use the full sample, the mean effect size is a partial correlation coefficient of 0.11, over ten times larger than the high-quality sample. We calculate a plausible elasticity range of 0.22-0.02 for the full sample and 0.03-0.00 for the high-quality sample. Back-of- envelope calculations suggest that the fall in lead over recent decades is responsible for between 36%-0% of the fall in homicide in the US. Our results suggest lead does not explain the majority of the large fall in crime observed in some countries, and additional explanations are needed.
- ggm 4y agoRaising the standard of living overall? Improvements in housing? (Absolute not relative. Nobody is earning what Bezos does, but lots of us can now afford fast fashion and a mobile phone compared to the cost of clothes, food &c in times past) Fewer people, relatively speaking live in "the projects" and Corbusier style ghetto blocks in Europe and now owner-occupied in lots of economies. Or even the welfare state, such as it is? Declining birth rate? Higher infant survival rates? Contra: fetal alcohol syndrome, opiate abuse, meth. All up I believe.