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How does this average to 62%? Also, Tesla went up a lot. It seems only fair to also compare the upward trend like saying from 2020pr 2019 or something.

JumpCrisscross 4y ago
> Tesla went up a lot. It seems only fair to also compare the upward trend like saying from 2020pr 2019 or something Every company is up infinitely from its founding. The implied question is how Tesla is faring in the current market, and how it is weathering Musk’s recent travails. Neither of those defend a 2019 starting point.
- ergocoder 4y ago
  Going down 70% might be normal or not normal. It is difficult to say without considering a relevant context like being extremely overvalued like 1y ago. For example, PayPal and Square are down 64% ytd. Is it because their CEOs go mental on social media too?
  - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
    > Going down 70% might be normal or not normal. It is difficult to say without considering a relevant context like being extremely overvalued like 1y ago. For example, PayPal and Square are down 64% ytd. Is it because their CEOs go mental on social media too? No, but it means there are firm-specific factors driving their value down faster than their benchmarks. We can’t answer why it’s happening. But we can say it’s abnormal.
    - ergocoder 4y ago
      In order to know whether it is firm-specific, we'll also need to look at other firms. SQ and PYPL also dropped by a comparable percentage, so it doesn't look like firm specific. It's more like they were all overvalued a year ago. But, for some reason nobody mentions this, They all point to Musk + Twitter instead. Another counter evidence: Musk accused British diver of being a pedophile. You would think nobody would want to associate themselves with people who falsely accused other people with pedophilia, right? Then, the stock went up 40x. If it had any impact, it shouldn't have been 40x. I doubt Musk's erratic behavior impacts the stock price that much.
      - ChuckMcM 4y ago
        The goal in the comparison is to reduce variables right? So comparing the stock price change of Tesla to that of two companies that aren't even remotely in the auto business doesn't help in that reduction. My comment above compares the change in price to other car companies because that is really what makes sense right?
        ergocoder 4y ago
        That doesn't make sense to not consider other factors. Tesla went up 40x but other car companies went up 2x at best. Tesla was overvalued like other tech companies. It is actually the most overvalued tech stock. It going down like other tech stocks seems sensible. Going up a lot -> going down a lot. Also, I provided an example how musk's erratic behaviour didn't impact stock price. But you didn't actually provide any comparable example. You just kinda declared that musk's behaviour impacted stock price...
ekianjo 4y ago
> How does this average to 62%? By cherry picking
- DangitBobby 4y ago
  Those percentages are weighted by their previous portion of the total value. A down 10% B down 90% If B is 50% of the market, the market is down by like... 50% You can construct practically any total within the extrema if you use the right weights.
ChuckMcM 4y ago
It doesn't (average to 62%) two things are going into that 62% number, one it starts on 1 january 2022 and these are the "last 12 months" so they start from the 26th December 2021. Also different analysts will pick different "sets" for their mix, so some will be "all US automakers" or "all 'major' automakers" (for some arbitrary definition of "major"). But stock prices are well publicized and easily available in forms for doing data analysis (the whole "day trader" craze in the 90's really kicked off some interesting "technical analysis tools" for stocks.) And if you're at the point where you have some "extra" savings that you want to take out of a CD or savings account and put into a fund of some sort, reading the various fund manager reports on different funds is endlessly entertaining in how they "hide the sausage" as one does. All that said, it seems a fair question is this; "Over the last 12 months, how has the stock price of companies that primarily make cars changed?" And the answer to that is that they have all gone down somewhat, some more than others. Interesting to me that BMW was the least affected and Lucid the most. I don't have many car stocks in my portfolio. I did add some when people were paying more to buy back used cars than they sold them for because that suggested to me they would have an uptick when the supply chain bounced back, and I do have Honda (long) since I've always admired the company's management. Other than that though, I got out mid last year (summer '21).
TylerE 4y ago
Probably no waiting. When Ford stock is $8 and Tesla is $200…
marricks 4y ago
Weighted averages. Toyota's market cap is 180b Ford/GM/BMW/Honda's are around 50b Tesla has 350b market cap now. About equal to all the ones I listed above. It'd have an outsized affect plummeting from over 1 trillion a year ago to 350 billion now.
- rsj_hn 4y ago
  I like Tesla's products - they have good engineers that are building cool stuff - but I still think the stock is overvalued and people don't understand all the off balance sheet liabilities and risks faced by Tesla. For example, supporting old models, maintaining inventories of available parts, complying with new regulations, labor issues and unionization, dependence on commodity input costs, environmental issues in production, risk of lawsuits as a result of accidents. Risk of lawsuits over dealership relations and bypassing local laws. Risk of lawsuits over "fully self-driving" marketing. Geopolitical risks with factories in China. Competitive risks from Chinese EV producers. If I were to hazard a guess, I'd say too many investors are treating it as a tech stock rather than as a manufacturing company, and they don't understand that there are solid reasons why manufacturing companies tend not to do well in the U.S., and aren't able to defend high operating margins nearly as well as tech companies. At least no one has managed to explain to me why Tesla should succeed in maintaining high margins for domestic auto manufacturing when so many others have failed.

JumpCrisscross 4y ago

> Tesla went up a lot. It seems only fair to also compare the upward trend like saying from 2020pr 2019 or something Every company is up infinitely from its founding. The implied question is how Tesla is faring in the current market, and how it is weathering Musk’s recent travails. Neither of those defend a 2019 starting point.

ergocoder 4y ago
Going down 70% might be normal or not normal. It is difficult to say without considering a relevant context like being extremely overvalued like 1y ago. For example, PayPal and Square are down 64% ytd. Is it because their CEOs go mental on social media too?
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago
  > Going down 70% might be normal or not normal. It is difficult to say without considering a relevant context like being extremely overvalued like 1y ago. For example, PayPal and Square are down 64% ytd. Is it because their CEOs go mental on social media too? No, but it means there are firm-specific factors driving their value down faster than their benchmarks. We can’t answer why it’s happening. But we can say it’s abnormal.
  - ergocoder 4y ago
    In order to know whether it is firm-specific, we'll also need to look at other firms. SQ and PYPL also dropped by a comparable percentage, so it doesn't look like firm specific. It's more like they were all overvalued a year ago. But, for some reason nobody mentions this, They all point to Musk + Twitter instead. Another counter evidence: Musk accused British diver of being a pedophile. You would think nobody would want to associate themselves with people who falsely accused other people with pedophilia, right? Then, the stock went up 40x. If it had any impact, it shouldn't have been 40x. I doubt Musk's erratic behavior impacts the stock price that much.
    - ChuckMcM 4y ago
      The goal in the comparison is to reduce variables right? So comparing the stock price change of Tesla to that of two companies that aren't even remotely in the auto business doesn't help in that reduction. My comment above compares the change in price to other car companies because that is really what makes sense right?
      - ergocoder 4y ago
        That doesn't make sense to not consider other factors. Tesla went up 40x but other car companies went up 2x at best. Tesla was overvalued like other tech companies. It is actually the most overvalued tech stock. It going down like other tech stocks seems sensible. Going up a lot -> going down a lot. Also, I provided an example how musk's erratic behaviour didn't impact stock price. But you didn't actually provide any comparable example. You just kinda declared that musk's behaviour impacted stock price...

ekianjo 4y ago

> How does this average to 62%? By cherry picking

DangitBobby 4y ago
Those percentages are weighted by their previous portion of the total value. A down 10% B down 90% If B is 50% of the market, the market is down by like... 50% You can construct practically any total within the extrema if you use the right weights.

ChuckMcM 4y ago

It doesn't (average to 62%) two things are going into that 62% number, one it starts on 1 january 2022 and these are the "last 12 months" so they start from the 26th December 2021. Also different analysts will pick different "sets" for their mix, so some will be "all US automakers" or "all 'major' automakers" (for some arbitrary definition of "major"). But stock prices are well publicized and easily available in forms for doing data analysis (the whole "day trader" craze in the 90's really kicked off some interesting "technical analysis tools" for stocks.) And if you're at the point where you have some "extra" savings that you want to take out of a CD or savings account and put into a fund of some sort, reading the various fund manager reports on different funds is endlessly entertaining in how they "hide the sausage" as one does. All that said, it seems a fair question is this; "Over the last 12 months, how has the stock price of companies that primarily make cars changed?" And the answer to that is that they have all gone down somewhat, some more than others. Interesting to me that BMW was the least affected and Lucid the most. I don't have many car stocks in my portfolio. I did add some when people were paying more to buy back used cars than they sold them for because that suggested to me they would have an uptick when the supply chain bounced back, and I do have Honda (long) since I've always admired the company's management. Other than that though, I got out mid last year (summer '21).

TylerE 4y ago

Probably no waiting. When Ford stock is $8 and Tesla is $200…

marricks 4y ago

Weighted averages. Toyota's market cap is 180b Ford/GM/BMW/Honda's are around 50b Tesla has 350b market cap now. About equal to all the ones I listed above. It'd have an outsized affect plummeting from over 1 trillion a year ago to 350 billion now.

rsj_hn 4y ago
I like Tesla's products - they have good engineers that are building cool stuff - but I still think the stock is overvalued and people don't understand all the off balance sheet liabilities and risks faced by Tesla. For example, supporting old models, maintaining inventories of available parts, complying with new regulations, labor issues and unionization, dependence on commodity input costs, environmental issues in production, risk of lawsuits as a result of accidents. Risk of lawsuits over dealership relations and bypassing local laws. Risk of lawsuits over "fully self-driving" marketing. Geopolitical risks with factories in China. Competitive risks from Chinese EV producers. If I were to hazard a guess, I'd say too many investors are treating it as a tech stock rather than as a manufacturing company, and they don't understand that there are solid reasons why manufacturing companies tend not to do well in the U.S., and aren't able to defend high operating margins nearly as well as tech companies. At least no one has managed to explain to me why Tesla should succeed in maintaining high margins for domestic auto manufacturing when so many others have failed.