The 4% rule paper was written in 1994, when most retirees would expect to live 15.3 (male) to 19.4 (female) more years. People retiring now can expect to live 1

The 4% rule paper was written in 1994, when most retirees would expect to live 15.3 (male) to 19.4 (female) more years. People retiring now can expect to live 18.1 to 20.7 years, make and female respectively. The % rules are calculated using joint actuarial tables and a given percentage chance of going broke before death (I believe it is 5%).