6 ms·

The reality is that the dealership model is a scam and ICE car are going to have a lot less demand in 10 years. Maybe GM and Toyota can pivot into that world,

The reality is that the dealership model is a scam and ICE car are going to have a lot less demand in 10 years. Maybe GM and Toyota can pivot into that world, but it is not guaranteed at all.

cma 4y ago
> The reality is that the dealership model is a scam Having the manufacturer own the "gas stations" in a printer-ink business model might be worse.
- stcredzero 4y ago
  Except, that Tesla is making the "ink" quite cheap! (Because they know that making it cheap and convenient is the best way to dominate the market.)
  - falcolas 4y ago
    So did early printer manufacturers. Hooking users on cheap products to get them bought into the ecosystem, only to hike rates later, is an incredibly common business practice.
    - rootusrootus 4y ago
      How does that work? I don’t buy their ink and there is no requirement for me to do so.
      - danaris 4y ago
        If Tesla owns a large percentage of the charging stations—particularly ones in otherwise-underserved areas—they can hike the prices for the people who have to charge there.
        rootusrootus 4y ago
        I wonder how many places there are with only Tesla chargers. Usually I find that an EA charger will fill gaps in the Tesla coverage out west, they're sort of complimentary. And since a Tesla can charge at a supercharger OR a CCS charger, they don't really have a lot of leverage to indiscriminately raise prices.
  - emkoemko 4y ago
    Musk guaranteed $0.07 kw to charge the semi but now its $0.50 making it two times more expensive then diesel so not sure how that will dominate the market?
    - rootusrootus 4y ago
      Why do semi owners have to buy electricity from Musk?
      - cma 4y ago
        They can make their own charger since he opened the patents: all they have to do is agree to let Tesla have license to all of their own patents and they also agree to not copy any of Tesla's designs that aren't even covered by patent or copyright or provide "material assistance" to anyone who does. Essentially they can use the patents if they accept something stronger than patents: no copying Tesla's unpatented designs or they can go back and get you for the patent violation in perpetuity (or statute of limitations).
        rootusrootus 4y ago
        The Semi isn't using Tesla's proprietary or NACS connector, however, it's using MCS.
      - emkoemko 4y ago
        that's what you get from that? he tells you they will guarantee $0.07 kw and that it will be cheaper then diesel to run to me this was a scam for PR and the getting people to preorder. Then we have the AI driving the trucks and in "convoys" that we now hear nothing about, yet he said it was already able to do today "2017" what we got is a truck that no one knows its weights so you can't tell how much it can move in cargo, that costs two times more to operate with a very limited range unless you want to destroy your batteries really quickly but hey they did engineer the best phone charger for it....
        rootusrootus 4y ago
- r00fus 4y ago
  Analogy is a bit flawed as EV owner mostly can charge at home or work for much cheaper.
  - falcolas 4y ago
    > charge at ... work I can't charge at work. I can't even plug in a block heater. I imagine most folks everywhere can't charge at work. Plus, charging at home depends heavily on the ownership of a garage. For one, power sockets (let alone charging stations) are pretty rare at most dense housing. Secondly, charging cables contain enough copper that they are rich targets for thieves. Currently, most apartment owners are not interested in providing charging stations, even if their tenants want them. The cost of putting them in and maintaining them is too high to justify it. Or the laziness quota, either/or.
    - ggreer 4y ago
      If you can't afford a house but you can afford an EV, but you also live in a high crime area where extension cords are severed for their copper, then I am very confused about your finances and living situation. In most states with high housing costs (such as California), landlords are required to let tenants install EV charging stations.[1] Also there are companies such as ChargePoint that go around to apartment complexes and sell them charging stations. The stations bring the apartment complex revenue and attract higher-end tenants. I think the concerns about charging are overrated. Yes, some landlords will drag their feet, but that's true for all tech adoption. I'm sure the same thing happened with cable TV, telephone lines, and dishwashers. The fancy places adopt the new thing first, then the average places, and finally the low-end places. 1. https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201320140AB2565 https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtm...
      - falcolas 4y ago
        A house, with a garage, starts at $450k where I live (Montana, FWIW). A BEV can be had for under $40k. Plus rebates. And charging cable theft is like bike theft. Combine exceptionally low risk with a fairly high reward, and it will happen everywhere, no matter how “low” of a crime area you’re in. A quick application of bolt cutters nets them hundreds of dollars, and may cost the owner thousands, depending on the250 per battery. Now imagine this applied to charging cables with their excess of copper and data lines and occasionally cooling jackets. Downplay the problems as you like, but they are problems.
- ggreer 4y ago
  As others have mentioned, most charging is done at home. EVs can plug into many types of outlets. You can even charge off a standard 120V 15A plug (albeit slowly). For fast charging on road trips, Teslas can get CCS adapters and charge at competing stations. (Although considering the current state of Electrify America, I don't know why anyone would do that.) Also Tesla is starting to open their chargers to non-Teslas. Charging is becoming a commodity. The main advantages of the Supercharger network are reliability and integration with the car's built-in trip planning. In the long term, Tesla's Superchargers will be like Apple's AirPods: compatible with pretty much everything, but nicer for those who use the company's other products.
selykg 4y ago
GM have been doing really well with both the crossover Bolt and the Cadillac Lyriq. I’d happily buy either of them over a Tesla. Ford has the Mustang and the Lightning. I’ve seen all of these on the roads recently. As many, if not more than I see Teslas. I am not in California where Tesla probably has a locational advantage due to the infrastructure being better for EVs. Thinking Tesla is the only company investing in electric is insane. GM and Ford’s body panel alignment embarrasses these Teslas too.
- stcredzero 4y ago
  GM have been doing really well with both the crossover Bolt and the Cadillac Lyriq. I’d happily buy either of them over a Tesla. Until you have to use Electrify America. Good luck with that!
  - samth 4y ago
    I've had a Bolt for more than a year (it's a great car) and I don't know what Electrify America is. (Looked it up, it's a network of charging stations)
- kubota 4y ago
  I'm excited for the Silverado EV work truck, Chevy is promising it will tow 20,000lbs by 2024, and seems very reasonably priced ~ $39k.
  - _huayra_ 4y ago
    From what I've seen on youtube / auto magazines, towing with an EV takes a massive hit to its range, way more than a diesel truck. If it's only an occasional thing (e.g. take the boat to the lake on the weekends, now with an extra hour sitting at a charger), then it's probably a good tradeoff. If hauling is your job, it might not be there yet :(
  - gitfan86 4y ago
    What is the range of the truck that GM will sell to the general public at 39k in 2024 with 20k towing capacity?
ThunderSizzle 4y ago
> have a lot less demand in 10 years Maybe. Probably not. With a large region of the US losing power during a cold blast because TVA couldn't keep up across multiple power distribution areas, I wouldn't expect to see people jumping in on that bargain. When you need it, your electric car will be significantly less useful in a crisis. States are also beginning to raise registration fees significantly to make up for the lack of gas tax revenue.
- kshacker 4y ago
  I am in California and I know California wants to sunset gasoline cars, but when I started looking recently, I was just unable to commit to an all electric SUV and settled for hybrid (if it were available), and I think that may be a decent compromise for many. There are regular hybrids and there are plug in hybrids and between them you get a range of options that reduce the charm of going full electric.
  - falcolas 4y ago
    I want to do this. But I'm not in California (or NY - i.e. CARB regulation states) and thus our local dealerships neither receive plug-in hybrids, nor can/will they service plug-in hybrids if I go to one of those states to buy one. It's really frustrating.
nomel 4y ago
> ICE car are going to have a lot less demand in 10 years I think hybrid will be in peak demand in 10 years. Electric doesn’t work well for anyone that doesn’t have a house/residential charging.
- rootusrootus 4y ago
  More than half the people in the US can charge at home. We still have some time to work out good options for the remainder.
root_axis 4y ago
Teslas are still too expensive for most people and there's no sign of a cheaper model coming any time soon. The incumbent car companies are also gradually closing the gap between Tesla and their own EV offerings, there's simply no conceivable scenario where Tesla could eclipse half a dozen other companies combined.
roflyear 4y ago
If you don't think Toyota can compete with Tesla our realities don't match up.
- midoridensha 4y ago
  Toyota could if it really wanted to, but there's no evidence it wants to. Toyota seems to still believe that hydrogen is going to be the next big thing Any Day Now. In the meantime, they keep making the Prius (a hybrid), but that's as electrified as they seem to want to go. It's quite sad really.
  - roflyear 4y ago
    Toyota has a lot of electric cars coming out. Also I'm not sure hybrid is so far from full electric or if that's an awful distinction. Hybrid may be the better path honestly.
- gitfan86 4y ago
  People said that to me in 2014. 8 years later Tesla sells over 1 million EVs a year and Toyota sells how many EVs?
  - roflyear 4y ago
    Hmm, do your own research, but seems like Toyota possibly sells more EVs than Tesla? https://www.statista.com/statistics/1155914/toyota-unit-sales-of-electrified-vehicles-by-region/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1155914/toyota-unit-sale... Tesla didn't break 1m last year btw, and IDK what their numbers will be this year - but on track to be a little higher, but not the growth they have had to date. Definitely slowing down considerably.
    - gitfan86 4y ago
      EV means that the car doesn't have a gas/diesel engine.

The reality is that the dealership model is a scam and ICE car are going to have a lot less demand in 10 years. Maybe GM and Toyota can pivot into that world, but it is not guaranteed at all.

cma 4y ago

> The reality is that the dealership model is a scam Having the manufacturer own the "gas stations" in a printer-ink business model might be worse.

stcredzero 4y ago
Except, that Tesla is making the "ink" quite cheap! (Because they know that making it cheap and convenient is the best way to dominate the market.)
- falcolas 4y ago
  So did early printer manufacturers. Hooking users on cheap products to get them bought into the ecosystem, only to hike rates later, is an incredibly common business practice.
  - rootusrootus 4y ago
    How does that work? I don’t buy their ink and there is no requirement for me to do so.
    - danaris 4y ago
      If Tesla owns a large percentage of the charging stations—particularly ones in otherwise-underserved areas—they can hike the prices for the people who have to charge there.
      - rootusrootus 4y ago
        I wonder how many places there are with only Tesla chargers. Usually I find that an EA charger will fill gaps in the Tesla coverage out west, they're sort of complimentary. And since a Tesla can charge at a supercharger OR a CCS charger, they don't really have a lot of leverage to indiscriminately raise prices.
- emkoemko 4y ago
  Musk guaranteed $0.07 kw to charge the semi but now its $0.50 making it two times more expensive then diesel so not sure how that will dominate the market?
  - rootusrootus 4y ago
    Why do semi owners have to buy electricity from Musk?
    - cma 4y ago
      They can make their own charger since he opened the patents: all they have to do is agree to let Tesla have license to all of their own patents and they also agree to not copy any of Tesla's designs that aren't even covered by patent or copyright or provide "material assistance" to anyone who does. Essentially they can use the patents if they accept something stronger than patents: no copying Tesla's unpatented designs or they can go back and get you for the patent violation in perpetuity (or statute of limitations).
      - rootusrootus 4y ago
        The Semi isn't using Tesla's proprietary or NACS connector, however, it's using MCS.
    - emkoemko 4y ago
      that's what you get from that? he tells you they will guarantee $0.07 kw and that it will be cheaper then diesel to run to me this was a scam for PR and the getting people to preorder. Then we have the AI driving the trucks and in "convoys" that we now hear nothing about, yet he said it was already able to do today "2017" what we got is a truck that no one knows its weights so you can't tell how much it can move in cargo, that costs two times more to operate with a very limited range unless you want to destroy your batteries really quickly but hey they did engineer the best phone charger for it....
      - rootusrootus 4y ago
r00fus 4y ago
Analogy is a bit flawed as EV owner mostly can charge at home or work for much cheaper.
- falcolas 4y ago
  > charge at ... work I can't charge at work. I can't even plug in a block heater. I imagine most folks everywhere can't charge at work. Plus, charging at home depends heavily on the ownership of a garage. For one, power sockets (let alone charging stations) are pretty rare at most dense housing. Secondly, charging cables contain enough copper that they are rich targets for thieves. Currently, most apartment owners are not interested in providing charging stations, even if their tenants want them. The cost of putting them in and maintaining them is too high to justify it. Or the laziness quota, either/or.
  - ggreer 4y ago
    If you can't afford a house but you can afford an EV, but you also live in a high crime area where extension cords are severed for their copper, then I am very confused about your finances and living situation. In most states with high housing costs (such as California), landlords are required to let tenants install EV charging stations.[1] Also there are companies such as ChargePoint that go around to apartment complexes and sell them charging stations. The stations bring the apartment complex revenue and attract higher-end tenants. I think the concerns about charging are overrated. Yes, some landlords will drag their feet, but that's true for all tech adoption. I'm sure the same thing happened with cable TV, telephone lines, and dishwashers. The fancy places adopt the new thing first, then the average places, and finally the low-end places. 1. https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201320140AB2565 https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtm...
    - falcolas 4y ago
      A house, with a garage, starts at $450k where I live (Montana, FWIW). A BEV can be had for under $40k. Plus rebates. And charging cable theft is like bike theft. Combine exceptionally low risk with a fairly high reward, and it will happen everywhere, no matter how “low” of a crime area you’re in. A quick application of bolt cutters nets them hundreds of dollars, and may cost the owner thousands, depending on the250 per battery. Now imagine this applied to charging cables with their excess of copper and data lines and occasionally cooling jackets. Downplay the problems as you like, but they are problems.
ggreer 4y ago
As others have mentioned, most charging is done at home. EVs can plug into many types of outlets. You can even charge off a standard 120V 15A plug (albeit slowly). For fast charging on road trips, Teslas can get CCS adapters and charge at competing stations. (Although considering the current state of Electrify America, I don't know why anyone would do that.) Also Tesla is starting to open their chargers to non-Teslas. Charging is becoming a commodity. The main advantages of the Supercharger network are reliability and integration with the car's built-in trip planning. In the long term, Tesla's Superchargers will be like Apple's AirPods: compatible with pretty much everything, but nicer for those who use the company's other products.

selykg 4y ago

GM have been doing really well with both the crossover Bolt and the Cadillac Lyriq. I’d happily buy either of them over a Tesla. Ford has the Mustang and the Lightning. I’ve seen all of these on the roads recently. As many, if not more than I see Teslas. I am not in California where Tesla probably has a locational advantage due to the infrastructure being better for EVs. Thinking Tesla is the only company investing in electric is insane. GM and Ford’s body panel alignment embarrasses these Teslas too.

stcredzero 4y ago
GM have been doing really well with both the crossover Bolt and the Cadillac Lyriq. I’d happily buy either of them over a Tesla. Until you have to use Electrify America. Good luck with that!
- samth 4y ago
  I've had a Bolt for more than a year (it's a great car) and I don't know what Electrify America is. (Looked it up, it's a network of charging stations)
kubota 4y ago
I'm excited for the Silverado EV work truck, Chevy is promising it will tow 20,000lbs by 2024, and seems very reasonably priced ~ $39k.
- _huayra_ 4y ago
  From what I've seen on youtube / auto magazines, towing with an EV takes a massive hit to its range, way more than a diesel truck. If it's only an occasional thing (e.g. take the boat to the lake on the weekends, now with an extra hour sitting at a charger), then it's probably a good tradeoff. If hauling is your job, it might not be there yet :(
- gitfan86 4y ago
  What is the range of the truck that GM will sell to the general public at 39k in 2024 with 20k towing capacity?

ThunderSizzle 4y ago

> have a lot less demand in 10 years Maybe. Probably not. With a large region of the US losing power during a cold blast because TVA couldn't keep up across multiple power distribution areas, I wouldn't expect to see people jumping in on that bargain. When you need it, your electric car will be significantly less useful in a crisis. States are also beginning to raise registration fees significantly to make up for the lack of gas tax revenue.

kshacker 4y ago
I am in California and I know California wants to sunset gasoline cars, but when I started looking recently, I was just unable to commit to an all electric SUV and settled for hybrid (if it were available), and I think that may be a decent compromise for many. There are regular hybrids and there are plug in hybrids and between them you get a range of options that reduce the charm of going full electric.
- falcolas 4y ago
  I want to do this. But I'm not in California (or NY - i.e. CARB regulation states) and thus our local dealerships neither receive plug-in hybrids, nor can/will they service plug-in hybrids if I go to one of those states to buy one. It's really frustrating.

nomel 4y ago

> ICE car are going to have a lot less demand in 10 years I think hybrid will be in peak demand in 10 years. Electric doesn’t work well for anyone that doesn’t have a house/residential charging.

rootusrootus 4y ago
More than half the people in the US can charge at home. We still have some time to work out good options for the remainder.

root_axis 4y ago

Teslas are still too expensive for most people and there's no sign of a cheaper model coming any time soon. The incumbent car companies are also gradually closing the gap between Tesla and their own EV offerings, there's simply no conceivable scenario where Tesla could eclipse half a dozen other companies combined.

roflyear 4y ago

If you don't think Toyota can compete with Tesla our realities don't match up.

midoridensha 4y ago
Toyota could if it really wanted to, but there's no evidence it wants to. Toyota seems to still believe that hydrogen is going to be the next big thing Any Day Now. In the meantime, they keep making the Prius (a hybrid), but that's as electrified as they seem to want to go. It's quite sad really.
- roflyear 4y ago
  Toyota has a lot of electric cars coming out. Also I'm not sure hybrid is so far from full electric or if that's an awful distinction. Hybrid may be the better path honestly.
gitfan86 4y ago
People said that to me in 2014. 8 years later Tesla sells over 1 million EVs a year and Toyota sells how many EVs?
- roflyear 4y ago
  Hmm, do your own research, but seems like Toyota possibly sells more EVs than Tesla? https://www.statista.com/statistics/1155914/toyota-unit-sales-of-electrified-vehicles-by-region/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1155914/toyota-unit-sale... Tesla didn't break 1m last year btw, and IDK what their numbers will be this year - but on track to be a little higher, but not the growth they have had to date. Definitely slowing down considerably.
  - gitfan86 4y ago
    EV means that the car doesn't have a gas/diesel engine.