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It looks like you're more of a glass-half-empty person (and me a glass-half-full). I agree with your current assessment of how good or bad fsd beta 10.69.x.x is

It looks like you're more of a glass-half-empty person (and me a glass-half-full). I agree with your current assessment of how good or bad fsd beta 10.69.x.x is. However, as I see it, the rate of improvement is such that FSD will reach L3 autonomy in 2 years (and requiring one hardware update). Especially because perception, which I guessed would be the hardest part to solve due to lack of LIDAR, seems to be pretty good already, it's the planning that's bad.

nunez 4y ago
I was absolutely a glass-half-full person when it came to FSD (the insane amount of downvotes I've gotten on Reddit on FSD-related posts can back me up on that) until three things happened: - Elon and his team committed the purge over at Twitter (which made me re-think his leadership abilities and doubt the credibility of his vision-only approach), - Andrej leaving (why would the head of Autonomy leave when they are supposedly on their way towards completely changing how we drive? Makes no sense to leave your life's work like that), and - A non-engineer, non-Tesla owning friend of mine got a ride in a Waymo in San Francisco and described it as a smooth ride start to finish. (I cannot imagine FSD Beta being smooth in a city setting; it sure as hell isn't in Houston proper; and Waymo is completely driverless!) Now I'm definitely going to try it again when FSD 11 drops, but I am a little scared of single-stack given how absolutely rock solid AP is.
- uofmihnea 4y ago
  There are several FSD beta videos on Youtube (e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbH9GVcaEYM&ab_channel=DirtyTesla https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbH9GVcaEYM&ab_channel=Dirty...) that suggest no intervention. I'm curious why you dont think FSD Beta can be smooth in a city setting. Re. Andrej - looks like he might be coming back and his reason for leaving was based on his role being too managerial shrug https://electrek.co/2022/10/31/andrej-karpathy-coming-back-tesla-work-optimus-agi/#:~:text=On%20the%20Lex%20Fridman%20podcast,meetings%20rather%20than%20actual%20engineering https://electrek.co/2022/10/31/andrej-karpathy-coming-back-t....

nunez 4y ago

I was absolutely a glass-half-full person when it came to FSD (the insane amount of downvotes I've gotten on Reddit on FSD-related posts can back me up on that) until three things happened: - Elon and his team committed the purge over at Twitter (which made me re-think his leadership abilities and doubt the credibility of his vision-only approach), - Andrej leaving (why would the head of Autonomy leave when they are supposedly on their way towards completely changing how we drive? Makes no sense to leave your life's work like that), and - A non-engineer, non-Tesla owning friend of mine got a ride in a Waymo in San Francisco and described it as a smooth ride start to finish. (I cannot imagine FSD Beta being smooth in a city setting; it sure as hell isn't in Houston proper; and Waymo is completely driverless!) Now I'm definitely going to try it again when FSD 11 drops, but I am a little scared of single-stack given how absolutely rock solid AP is.

uofmihnea 4y ago
There are several FSD beta videos on Youtube (e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbH9GVcaEYM&ab_channel=DirtyTesla https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbH9GVcaEYM&ab_channel=Dirty...) that suggest no intervention. I'm curious why you dont think FSD Beta can be smooth in a city setting. Re. Andrej - looks like he might be coming back and his reason for leaving was based on his role being too managerial shrug https://electrek.co/2022/10/31/andrej-karpathy-coming-back-tesla-work-optimus-agi/#:~:text=On%20the%20Lex%20Fridman%20podcast,meetings%20rather%20than%20actual%20engineering https://electrek.co/2022/10/31/andrej-karpathy-coming-back-t....