5 ms·

It’s relative and overlooks ten+ years of trading. Tesla stock is only at the lowest since the start of the pandemic when everything wildly inflated due to the

It’s relative and overlooks ten+ years of trading. Tesla stock is only at the lowest since the start of the pandemic when everything wildly inflated due to the massive influx of money into the system. It’s still radically up since 2017. The last two years were a severe anomaly.

jacquesm 4y ago
The last three months were a severe anomaly when looking at the last two years. The good news is that this rate of descent can't be maintained for much longer.
- akolbe 4y ago
  It would be odd if Musk's antics had no effect on the desirability of the Tesla brand, given that EVs primarily appeal to environmentally aware progressives. Perhaps that's the reason why Tesla is offering big discounts right now.
  - jacquesm 4y ago
    I'm pretty sure that it has exactly that effect. I wouldn't want to be caught dead in a Tesla at this point, never mind driving one. And with FSD who is to know which one it would be...
- hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
  > The good news is that this rate of descent can't be maintained for much longer. Actually, a stock can fall 11% every day for an infinite number of days (discreteness of pennies notwithstanding)! In all seriousness, though, I would be very wary about thinking that "this rate of descent can't be maintained for much longer." Many stocks have lost half their value, only to then lose 50% more shortly thereafter, and then 50% more after that.
  - jacquesm 4y ago
    Yes, if you want to express it as a percentage of present day value, then sure, the limit is '0'. But at $73 / month it would make sense for it to bottom out at some point.
- lokedhs 4y ago
  The P/E is 34.31 compared to about 5 for Mercedes. There is plenty of room to drop further.
  - jacquesm 4y ago
    Sure but another $100 in three months isn't going to happen. At least, I don't think it will, no matter what idiocy Musk will pull next. There has to be a floor somewhere.
    - falcolas 4y ago
      > There has to be a floor somewhere. I can think of one option: The SEC halts trading on Tesla stock. They've done it before, there's no reason to believe they would not do it here. Otherwise, isn't there a class of stocks called "penny stocks"?
      - deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
      - KerrAvon 4y ago
        The stock price gradually falling into a pit won’t trigger a halt.
        falcolas 4y ago
        It can if the SEC figures someone (rich white guys and their companies) is being materially harmed and can justify it via "suspicious trades" (which can mean anything). See AMC.
- falcolas 4y ago
  > The good news is that this rate of descent can't be maintained for much longer. "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." ~Confucius (probably) Seriously though, there's no natural law, perhaps other than greed, which can stop a descent. Especially for something which was (is?) irrationally overvalued.
  - jacquesm 4y ago
    Well, '0' would seem to be a hard lower limit. But I expect a floor at least somewhat above that unless even Tesla's assets end up being worth nothing. But that does not seem to be realistic to me. Even so, no matter what price: I'm not buying this stock because all it would do is give Elon tacit support.
    - falcolas 4y ago
      True, $0 (more realistically $0.01) is the floor. > But I expect a floor at least somewhat above that unless even Tesla's assets end up being worth nothing. That's the thing though, the value of stocks is only tenuously related to the value of anything Tesla (any company, really) actually does, owns, or sells. It's value is solely based on what it can be sold for. And its sale price depends solely upon what someone thinks they can sell it for at a later date. So, aside from not going away (and buying its own stock), there's not a company can really do that can have a predictably effect on the stock price. I've seen too many stocks move solely based on the feelings of a few stock analysts, regardless of the company's achievements, to believe otherwise.
      - jacquesm 4y ago
        That's the reason I'm not in this game. I see no rational approach to trading in Tesla stock, it is bought and sold on sentiment more than on the underlying value.
- coffeebeqn 4y ago
  That’s a dangerous belief. You can lose double digits every quarter until it gets delisted in the worse case.
- prewett 4y ago
  Ford is trading at 108% book value, GM at 75% of book, Mercedes is 80% of book, and Volkswagen is trading at 1/3rd of book value (!?), assuming Yahoo Finance's numbers are correct. In contrast, Tesla is at 976% of book value. I think it has the potential to fall quite a bit more.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
summerlight 4y ago
I think the issue is that investors are losing their faith (or patience?) on Elon Musk. Almost half of the value loss happened just in a single quarter, largely after his Twitter acquisition. Most other US stock indexes have been either flat or increasing during the same period. I wouldn't say this is a permanent loss, but still skeptical on possibility of natural recover without giving up his obsession on Twitter.

jacquesm 4y ago

The last three months were a severe anomaly when looking at the last two years. The good news is that this rate of descent can't be maintained for much longer.

akolbe 4y ago
It would be odd if Musk's antics had no effect on the desirability of the Tesla brand, given that EVs primarily appeal to environmentally aware progressives. Perhaps that's the reason why Tesla is offering big discounts right now.
- jacquesm 4y ago
  I'm pretty sure that it has exactly that effect. I wouldn't want to be caught dead in a Tesla at this point, never mind driving one. And with FSD who is to know which one it would be...
hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
> The good news is that this rate of descent can't be maintained for much longer. Actually, a stock can fall 11% every day for an infinite number of days (discreteness of pennies notwithstanding)! In all seriousness, though, I would be very wary about thinking that "this rate of descent can't be maintained for much longer." Many stocks have lost half their value, only to then lose 50% more shortly thereafter, and then 50% more after that.
- jacquesm 4y ago
  Yes, if you want to express it as a percentage of present day value, then sure, the limit is '0'. But at $73 / month it would make sense for it to bottom out at some point.
lokedhs 4y ago
The P/E is 34.31 compared to about 5 for Mercedes. There is plenty of room to drop further.
- jacquesm 4y ago
  Sure but another $100 in three months isn't going to happen. At least, I don't think it will, no matter what idiocy Musk will pull next. There has to be a floor somewhere.
  - falcolas 4y ago
    > There has to be a floor somewhere. I can think of one option: The SEC halts trading on Tesla stock. They've done it before, there's no reason to believe they would not do it here. Otherwise, isn't there a class of stocks called "penny stocks"?
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
    - KerrAvon 4y ago
      The stock price gradually falling into a pit won’t trigger a halt.
      - falcolas 4y ago
        It can if the SEC figures someone (rich white guys and their companies) is being materially harmed and can justify it via "suspicious trades" (which can mean anything). See AMC.
falcolas 4y ago
> The good news is that this rate of descent can't be maintained for much longer. "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." ~Confucius (probably) Seriously though, there's no natural law, perhaps other than greed, which can stop a descent. Especially for something which was (is?) irrationally overvalued.
- jacquesm 4y ago
  Well, '0' would seem to be a hard lower limit. But I expect a floor at least somewhat above that unless even Tesla's assets end up being worth nothing. But that does not seem to be realistic to me. Even so, no matter what price: I'm not buying this stock because all it would do is give Elon tacit support.
  - falcolas 4y ago
    True, $0 (more realistically $0.01) is the floor. > But I expect a floor at least somewhat above that unless even Tesla's assets end up being worth nothing. That's the thing though, the value of stocks is only tenuously related to the value of anything Tesla (any company, really) actually does, owns, or sells. It's value is solely based on what it can be sold for. And its sale price depends solely upon what someone thinks they can sell it for at a later date. So, aside from not going away (and buying its own stock), there's not a company can really do that can have a predictably effect on the stock price. I've seen too many stocks move solely based on the feelings of a few stock analysts, regardless of the company's achievements, to believe otherwise.
    - jacquesm 4y ago
      That's the reason I'm not in this game. I see no rational approach to trading in Tesla stock, it is bought and sold on sentiment more than on the underlying value.
coffeebeqn 4y ago
That’s a dangerous belief. You can lose double digits every quarter until it gets delisted in the worse case.
prewett 4y ago
Ford is trading at 108% book value, GM at 75% of book, Mercedes is 80% of book, and Volkswagen is trading at 1/3rd of book value (!?), assuming Yahoo Finance's numbers are correct. In contrast, Tesla is at 976% of book value. I think it has the potential to fall quite a bit more.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

summerlight 4y ago

I think the issue is that investors are losing their faith (or patience?) on Elon Musk. Almost half of the value loss happened just in a single quarter, largely after his Twitter acquisition. Most other US stock indexes have been either flat or increasing during the same period. I wouldn't say this is a permanent loss, but still skeptical on possibility of natural recover without giving up his obsession on Twitter.