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I’ve been short since $300. I predicted $100 but now I think it could hit $68. We shall see!

roflyear 4y ago
Congrats!
dragontamer 4y ago
If you're currently making $200 a share, why would you risk your $200 profits to chase another $30 to $40 bucks/share? I say, just take your win and go home. Close out your short and buy yourself a nice dinner. You deserve it. EDIT: Maybe hold onto a few shorts for fun. But if you're already winning this hard, you really should just take profits. Its not like you can get much more profits out of this.
- remote_phone 4y ago
  Thanks but I really don’t need advice, I’ve been doing this for a while now. I scale in and out of all my trades, I’ve booked a lot of my profits at this point.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- sokoloff 4y ago
  Other than tax differences (minor and mostly not applicable on the short side), I think that’s the wrong way to think about trades. If you have reason to invest on the thesis that the stock will go down to $68 from $109, being short from $105, $150, or $300 is all the same at this point.
- bb88 4y ago
  P/E is still 33 as we head into a recession, and Musk continues to anger the traditional customer base that cares about environmental issues. He might make up with Maga republicans, but many of them want a Ford Pickup. We'll see what the 4th Quarter holds but it's still possible that EPS will grow and the price will still tank as it becomes clear that the market becomes saturated with Elon's big ego. Even $68 is would mean a P/E of around 20 which is still ~3 times higher than Ford's.
  - remote_phone 4y ago
    Competition is fierce now for EVs and I think they miss deliveries and Musk’s shenanigans have dried up his backlog. Even at $68 it’s still $250B valuation which is too high for a car company like Tesla. It won’t take a lot of lost sales for Tesla to go red.
  - dragontamer 4y ago
    I'm pretty sure the stock will continue to decline. But still, there's a big issue of risk vs reward at play here. A short-seller would have made a significant amount of money if they've been short since $300 (or higher). There's always a time to "Collect your chips off the table". It always feels too early when you do so. But you gotta run the calculation: is staying in and possibly losing everything worth the risk? If so, how much reward do you think you're gonna make? By staying short, the full $190 / share gains from this trade remains at risk. And for what? The chance that it maybe turns into $230 / share gains? There's definitely a risk/reward calculation at play here. If you're really certain about that $70 price point coming up, then yeah, hold onto the shorts a bit longer. But anyone who has watched a 70% collapse of a stock that they sold short really should be considering just taking profits. How much further do you think it really can fall? ---- If you're certain to hold onto those shorts... maybe buy a couple of call options to lock in your wins, at the cost of theta-decay. There's other ways to hedge and "lock in" some of the winnings. But no trader should be the idiot who "bets it all on black" over-and-over-and-over again. You gotta take your chips off the table at some point, and today is a good day as any other day.
    - bb88 4y ago
      > How much further do you think it really can fall? Well that's a great question. If you think Tesla is close to bankruptcy than the answer is: all the way down. But even so, downward pressure can create more downward pressure if Tesla has been over leveraged to obtain loans or to buy Twitter. Let's say Tesla stock was used as collateral for loans, with a promise that the stock won't go below $100, e.g. If it does go below $100 then someone is on the hook to provide cash collateral to offset the loss of the value of the stock. The primary way to do that is to sell Tesla stock to raise cash. That creates further downward pressure on the stock price. Or Tesla might be lying about something materially related to the stock price, which you've discovered and are pointing out to the WSJ, because you know, you have a reporter over there on speed dial (not everyone does, of course, but if your trades are $100M at a time then you should). Or maybe you're betting that Elon is going to self implode and jump out of the window, or murdered because of shady dealings with Russia. Sure that's long odds maybe, but not entirely unheard of. Derogatory information about a company or it's CEO might be a gamble that's worth taking. I'm sure there's a lot of dirt in Fortune 500 companies that is waiting to be found with the right team of private investigators.
blantonl 4y ago
Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered. Careful.

Congrats!

If you're currently making $200 a share, why would you risk your $200 profits to chase another $30 to $40 bucks/share? I say, just take your win and go home. Close out your short and buy yourself a nice dinner. You deserve it. EDIT: Maybe hold onto a few shorts for fun. But if you're already winning this hard, you really should just take profits. Its not like you can get much more profits out of this.

remote_phone 4y ago
Thanks but I really don’t need advice, I’ve been doing this for a while now. I scale in and out of all my trades, I’ve booked a lot of my profits at this point.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
sokoloff 4y ago
Other than tax differences (minor and mostly not applicable on the short side), I think that’s the wrong way to think about trades. If you have reason to invest on the thesis that the stock will go down to $68 from $109, being short from $105, $150, or $300 is all the same at this point.
bb88 4y ago
P/E is still 33 as we head into a recession, and Musk continues to anger the traditional customer base that cares about environmental issues. He might make up with Maga republicans, but many of them want a Ford Pickup. We'll see what the 4th Quarter holds but it's still possible that EPS will grow and the price will still tank as it becomes clear that the market becomes saturated with Elon's big ego. Even $68 is would mean a P/E of around 20 which is still ~3 times higher than Ford's.
- remote_phone 4y ago
  Competition is fierce now for EVs and I think they miss deliveries and Musk’s shenanigans have dried up his backlog. Even at $68 it’s still $250B valuation which is too high for a car company like Tesla. It won’t take a lot of lost sales for Tesla to go red.
- dragontamer 4y ago
  I'm pretty sure the stock will continue to decline. But still, there's a big issue of risk vs reward at play here. A short-seller would have made a significant amount of money if they've been short since $300 (or higher). There's always a time to "Collect your chips off the table". It always feels too early when you do so. But you gotta run the calculation: is staying in and possibly losing everything worth the risk? If so, how much reward do you think you're gonna make? By staying short, the full $190 / share gains from this trade remains at risk. And for what? The chance that it maybe turns into $230 / share gains? There's definitely a risk/reward calculation at play here. If you're really certain about that $70 price point coming up, then yeah, hold onto the shorts a bit longer. But anyone who has watched a 70% collapse of a stock that they sold short really should be considering just taking profits. How much further do you think it really can fall? ---- If you're certain to hold onto those shorts... maybe buy a couple of call options to lock in your wins, at the cost of theta-decay. There's other ways to hedge and "lock in" some of the winnings. But no trader should be the idiot who "bets it all on black" over-and-over-and-over again. You gotta take your chips off the table at some point, and today is a good day as any other day.
  - bb88 4y ago
    > How much further do you think it really can fall? Well that's a great question. If you think Tesla is close to bankruptcy than the answer is: all the way down. But even so, downward pressure can create more downward pressure if Tesla has been over leveraged to obtain loans or to buy Twitter. Let's say Tesla stock was used as collateral for loans, with a promise that the stock won't go below $100, e.g. If it does go below $100 then someone is on the hook to provide cash collateral to offset the loss of the value of the stock. The primary way to do that is to sell Tesla stock to raise cash. That creates further downward pressure on the stock price. Or Tesla might be lying about something materially related to the stock price, which you've discovered and are pointing out to the WSJ, because you know, you have a reporter over there on speed dial (not everyone does, of course, but if your trades are $100M at a time then you should). Or maybe you're betting that Elon is going to self implode and jump out of the window, or murdered because of shady dealings with Russia. Sure that's long odds maybe, but not entirely unheard of. Derogatory information about a company or it's CEO might be a gamble that's worth taking. I'm sure there's a lot of dirt in Fortune 500 companies that is waiting to be found with the right team of private investigators.

blantonl 4y ago

Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered. Careful.