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Going by its P/E, its still overpriced compared to every other car manufacture, but its getting back down to a rational level. Its only 6x Ford and GM and abou

Going by its P/E, its still overpriced compared to every other car manufacture, but its getting back down to a rational level. Its only 6x Ford and GM and about 4x Toyota.

bink 4y ago
I always used to laugh when people would bring up battery tech and solar when talking about TSLA's absurd valuation, but I think it's starting to become more relevant as it approaches a more realistic market cap. It's still too high though.
- justapassenger 4y ago
  Their solar is shrinking/stagnating for years and it’s not a high margin business for a start - competition is brutal. It’s utility at the core - they always operate on razor thin margins. For batteries, they still mostly just buy from suppliers.
- SkipperCat 4y ago
  Yeah, if it was 2x or 3x Ford, I'd consider it a stronger buy. I think the real test will not be its P/E, but how the other big car companies debut their EV and driver-assist (or driverless) tech. It just feels like Tesla is still the market leader in that tech. If someone else beats them at that game, it would not be good for their stock price. But, conversely, if they stay on top, maybe that high valuation will stick around.
  - TylerE 4y ago
    Uh, they already have debuted, and not even this year
    - kspacewalk2 4y ago
      And yet Tesla is still the market leader.
      - TylerE 4y ago
        Rapidly shifting. Porsche is selling a crap ton of Taycans, more than Tesla is selling Model S. 17% of Taycan buyers are trading in a Model S.
      - dogma1138 4y ago
        Like someone else has already mentioned Porsche and Mercedes actually offer very compelling options at the Model S/X price range that actually feel like luxury and when you paying over $100K you deserve some luxury and Hyundai, Kia, Genesis and even WV offer very compelling alternatives to the Model 3 and Y and they often are cheaper and overall provide better experience for an every-day car. Whilst Tesla’s are still selling quite well I think they still are riding their early “we are the only ones who can do EVs right” wave and “Musk fame” and with both kinda dying down I don’t see Tesla being dominant for much longer. There is too much competition from companies that are far more competent at making cars that are actually useful, all it took is for battery technology to become just a little bit more democratized and for car manufacturers to stop treating EVs as some concept car fab ala the i3… The Taycan is one of the best cars I’ve ever have driven not just as far as EV’s go but period, and I’m getting to test drive the EQS SUV in about a week and from what I heard it also is a fantastic car. And this is whilst not accounting for the mass of new EV companies and offerings coming out of China which some of them seem to be quite competitive on all fronts with Tesla too and this can really hurt Tesla especially in the Chinese market which I’m going to bet is a major growth driver for them. Unless Tesla pulls out some magic battery tech out of their ass and I mean like truly magic as in not something that other manufacturers can compensate for by putting larger batteries or by slightly lowering the power output of their platforms I really don’t see them even remaining competitive in the long term. Yes they still have their charging network but ironically it’s quickly becoming outdated with the new super fast charging standards coming out and most importantly it’s really only proving Tesla a huge advantage in the US as their charging network outside of it is of a much smaller scale if it exists at all.
  - samwillis 4y ago
    The self driving stuff is (in my view) all a red herring. There is no mass market call for it, it's not going to drive further growth. The only thing it may do is help maintain their position in the higher end of the market. They should have brought out another lower cost, smaller car by now. Why haven't they built a commercial van? Why is there no family MPV? The investment in FSD is ultimately a distraction that wastes resources and slows growth. One day FSD will be a reality, but that shouldn't be their primary goal.
    - pifm_guy 4y ago
      > The self driving stuff is (in my view) all a red herring. I agree, but for another reason... There isn't much copyrightable or patentable in the self driving world. If someone makes a self driving car which is good enough to drive unsupervised, then it'll only be a year till all other manufacturers can do the same. Being first won't buy them much.
    - VectorLock 4y ago
      Real actual full self-driving would transform the auto industry and society. There is no "call" for it in the same way there was no call for air travel before the Wright brothers.
    - xnx 4y ago
      > There is no mass market call for it Without any working product available on the market, I don't think potential customers know what they're missing. Having a truly working self-driving feature would be like having a 24 hour private chauffeur. It would dramatically change where people live, where they work, and how they take vacation. I'd probably by weekend home 10 hours away if I could fall asleep in the car on Friday and wake up there Saturday morning.
      - r00fus 4y ago
        We keep seeing problems day after day with Tesla’s horrible implementation. It’s actually gotten worse in the past few years. If L4+ self-driving is coming soon, I would doubt that Tesla is the one that finally nails it.
  - qaq 4y ago
    Ford has 110 billion debt Ford will make 12.5 billion profit in 2022 Tesla debt 1/10 of Ford Profit on par on significantly smaller number of units sold Tesla YoY growth 55%
- bb88 4y ago
  Tesla's first mover advantage is losing to the traditional car companies.
- mikeryan 4y ago
  I listened into the Twitter Space with Elon and some of his more bullish investors. There were three main pints that had them making Tesla more than a common car company. 1. Solar and Battery Tech 2. Entry into commercial trucking. 3. Bringing on their own Lithium refineries (IIRC the main thing constricting Lithium production isn’t extracting it’s Refining) that being said Elon said they were planning on bringing on their own refinery capacity in 2 years when the current lead time was generally 7. Personally not buying any of those.
  - xnx 4y ago
    "Self driving" wasn't even mentioned? I think that used to be one of the main rationalizations for why the insanely high stock price was justified.
justapassenger 4y ago
Keep in mind that their PE is driven by heavily gutted R&D spending and inflated car prices. It’s not sustainable in the same way as their stock price wasn’t.

Going by its P/E, its still overpriced compared to every other car manufacture, but its getting back down to a rational level. Its only 6x Ford and GM and about 4x Toyota.

bink 4y ago

I always used to laugh when people would bring up battery tech and solar when talking about TSLA's absurd valuation, but I think it's starting to become more relevant as it approaches a more realistic market cap. It's still too high though.

justapassenger 4y ago
Their solar is shrinking/stagnating for years and it’s not a high margin business for a start - competition is brutal. It’s utility at the core - they always operate on razor thin margins. For batteries, they still mostly just buy from suppliers.
SkipperCat 4y ago
Yeah, if it was 2x or 3x Ford, I'd consider it a stronger buy. I think the real test will not be its P/E, but how the other big car companies debut their EV and driver-assist (or driverless) tech. It just feels like Tesla is still the market leader in that tech. If someone else beats them at that game, it would not be good for their stock price. But, conversely, if they stay on top, maybe that high valuation will stick around.
- TylerE 4y ago
  Uh, they already have debuted, and not even this year
  - kspacewalk2 4y ago
    And yet Tesla is still the market leader.
    - TylerE 4y ago
      Rapidly shifting. Porsche is selling a crap ton of Taycans, more than Tesla is selling Model S. 17% of Taycan buyers are trading in a Model S.
    - dogma1138 4y ago
      Like someone else has already mentioned Porsche and Mercedes actually offer very compelling options at the Model S/X price range that actually feel like luxury and when you paying over $100K you deserve some luxury and Hyundai, Kia, Genesis and even WV offer very compelling alternatives to the Model 3 and Y and they often are cheaper and overall provide better experience for an every-day car. Whilst Tesla’s are still selling quite well I think they still are riding their early “we are the only ones who can do EVs right” wave and “Musk fame” and with both kinda dying down I don’t see Tesla being dominant for much longer. There is too much competition from companies that are far more competent at making cars that are actually useful, all it took is for battery technology to become just a little bit more democratized and for car manufacturers to stop treating EVs as some concept car fab ala the i3… The Taycan is one of the best cars I’ve ever have driven not just as far as EV’s go but period, and I’m getting to test drive the EQS SUV in about a week and from what I heard it also is a fantastic car. And this is whilst not accounting for the mass of new EV companies and offerings coming out of China which some of them seem to be quite competitive on all fronts with Tesla too and this can really hurt Tesla especially in the Chinese market which I’m going to bet is a major growth driver for them. Unless Tesla pulls out some magic battery tech out of their ass and I mean like truly magic as in not something that other manufacturers can compensate for by putting larger batteries or by slightly lowering the power output of their platforms I really don’t see them even remaining competitive in the long term. Yes they still have their charging network but ironically it’s quickly becoming outdated with the new super fast charging standards coming out and most importantly it’s really only proving Tesla a huge advantage in the US as their charging network outside of it is of a much smaller scale if it exists at all.
- samwillis 4y ago
  The self driving stuff is (in my view) all a red herring. There is no mass market call for it, it's not going to drive further growth. The only thing it may do is help maintain their position in the higher end of the market. They should have brought out another lower cost, smaller car by now. Why haven't they built a commercial van? Why is there no family MPV? The investment in FSD is ultimately a distraction that wastes resources and slows growth. One day FSD will be a reality, but that shouldn't be their primary goal.
  - pifm_guy 4y ago
    > The self driving stuff is (in my view) all a red herring. I agree, but for another reason... There isn't much copyrightable or patentable in the self driving world. If someone makes a self driving car which is good enough to drive unsupervised, then it'll only be a year till all other manufacturers can do the same. Being first won't buy them much.
  - VectorLock 4y ago
    Real actual full self-driving would transform the auto industry and society. There is no "call" for it in the same way there was no call for air travel before the Wright brothers.
  - xnx 4y ago
    > There is no mass market call for it Without any working product available on the market, I don't think potential customers know what they're missing. Having a truly working self-driving feature would be like having a 24 hour private chauffeur. It would dramatically change where people live, where they work, and how they take vacation. I'd probably by weekend home 10 hours away if I could fall asleep in the car on Friday and wake up there Saturday morning.
    - r00fus 4y ago
      We keep seeing problems day after day with Tesla’s horrible implementation. It’s actually gotten worse in the past few years. If L4+ self-driving is coming soon, I would doubt that Tesla is the one that finally nails it.
- qaq 4y ago
  Ford has 110 billion debt Ford will make 12.5 billion profit in 2022 Tesla debt 1/10 of Ford Profit on par on significantly smaller number of units sold Tesla YoY growth 55%
bb88 4y ago
Tesla's first mover advantage is losing to the traditional car companies.
mikeryan 4y ago
I listened into the Twitter Space with Elon and some of his more bullish investors. There were three main pints that had them making Tesla more than a common car company. 1. Solar and Battery Tech 2. Entry into commercial trucking. 3. Bringing on their own Lithium refineries (IIRC the main thing constricting Lithium production isn’t extracting it’s Refining) that being said Elon said they were planning on bringing on their own refinery capacity in 2 years when the current lead time was generally 7. Personally not buying any of those.
- xnx 4y ago
  "Self driving" wasn't even mentioned? I think that used to be one of the main rationalizations for why the insanely high stock price was justified.

justapassenger 4y ago

Keep in mind that their PE is driven by heavily gutted R&D spending and inflated car prices. It’s not sustainable in the same way as their stock price wasn’t.