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It's not vaporware, it's just taken significantly longer than expected. Tesla's solution looks more like vaporware because of how many times Musk has promised

It's not vaporware, it's just taken significantly longer than expected. Tesla's solution looks more like vaporware because of how many times Musk has promised fully driverless operation -- sometimes even promising a cross country hands off trip -- within a year or two. Other companies have also had overly optimistic predictions, but generally not "we'll be able to go anywhere in the country with no intervention within the next year" level of extreme. Waymo's progress has been slow relative to "ten years" predictions, but they've also made steady progress, and it looks like it's continuing.

badwolf 4y ago
Tesla is also selling "full self driving" as a feature, right now. Not "coming in a year or two" They are taking people's money for it right now, and have been for years.
- deleted 4y ago
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mikestew 4y ago
It's not vaporware, it's just taken significantly longer than expected. EDIT: nevermind, parent clarified. Leaving original comment so follow-ups make sense. "Taking longer...": what we call it when it doesn't work, despite all of the marketing. So, IOW, "vaporware". When Tesla ships a working product, where "working" something remotely close to what has been promised, we can call it something else.
- TulliusCicero 4y ago
  Sorry, I interpreted GP as saying that self driving in general is vaporware. If they meant specifically just Tesla is vaporware, then yeah I largely agree.
  - mikestew 4y ago
    Oh, okay, I get ya. Yeah, I could see self-driving being a thing...some day, and wouldn't put the whole thing in the vaporware bucket. Thanks for the clarification.
semi-extrinsic 4y ago
CPU/GPU processing power is clearly making steady progress and looks like it will continue. Yet nobody thinks we will be able to brute-force 2048-bit RSA with the best sieve techniques even if the progress continues for 100 years. It is clearly not sufficient just to have some measure of growth to achieve some goal. It is necessary to have the growth actually matter compared to a measure of the problem difficulty. I would argue for self-driving cars as in Level 4/5 autonomy, nobody even has any useful measure or understanding of the problem difficulty. It's really easy to understand the autonomous driving levels. It's also really easy to understand the Kardashev scale. It might just turn out that both are of equally little practical relevance in our lifetimes. I know this is a boring situation, but there is no guarantee the universe shouldn't be boring.
- TulliusCicero 4y ago
  Waymo has an operational SDC taxi service in Phoenix with no safety drivers. Obviously that's a fairly easy metro as far as driving goes, but it's enough progress to be long term optimistic imo, especially considering they're doing a closed beta in SF currently.

badwolf 4y ago

Tesla is also selling "full self driving" as a feature, right now. Not "coming in a year or two" They are taking people's money for it right now, and have been for years.

deleted 4y ago
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mikestew 4y ago

It's not vaporware, it's just taken significantly longer than expected. EDIT: nevermind, parent clarified. Leaving original comment so follow-ups make sense. "Taking longer...": what we call it when it doesn't work, despite all of the marketing. So, IOW, "vaporware". When Tesla ships a working product, where "working" something remotely close to what has been promised, we can call it something else.

TulliusCicero 4y ago
Sorry, I interpreted GP as saying that self driving in general is vaporware. If they meant specifically just Tesla is vaporware, then yeah I largely agree.
- mikestew 4y ago
  Oh, okay, I get ya. Yeah, I could see self-driving being a thing...some day, and wouldn't put the whole thing in the vaporware bucket. Thanks for the clarification.

semi-extrinsic 4y ago

CPU/GPU processing power is clearly making steady progress and looks like it will continue. Yet nobody thinks we will be able to brute-force 2048-bit RSA with the best sieve techniques even if the progress continues for 100 years. It is clearly not sufficient just to have some measure of growth to achieve some goal. It is necessary to have the growth actually matter compared to a measure of the problem difficulty. I would argue for self-driving cars as in Level 4/5 autonomy, nobody even has any useful measure or understanding of the problem difficulty. It's really easy to understand the autonomous driving levels. It's also really easy to understand the Kardashev scale. It might just turn out that both are of equally little practical relevance in our lifetimes. I know this is a boring situation, but there is no guarantee the universe shouldn't be boring.

TulliusCicero 4y ago
Waymo has an operational SDC taxi service in Phoenix with no safety drivers. Obviously that's a fairly easy metro as far as driving goes, but it's enough progress to be long term optimistic imo, especially considering they're doing a closed beta in SF currently.