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My view is that the Gary Marcus argument is deeply wrong. Here's why. Current methods are far from perfect, but not for the reasons Marcus believes. Consider t

My view is that the Gary Marcus argument is deeply wrong. Here's why. Current methods are far from perfect, but not for the reasons Marcus believes. Consider that we /should/ be able to derive hypotheses for better system behavior from a given critique, test those proposed system improvements, and then (if the hypothesis is correct) see some improvement. Marcus' crew hasn't produced any useful improvements; this is either because they are not technically competent or their hypotheses are wrong. Given that people have been hammering at these systems for ~10 years now, I doubt the failure to build better logic-based systems (or hybrid systems) is for lack of trying. Meanwhile, the non-Marcus groups have been improving systems by leaps and bounds, through exactly the kind of iterative, hypothesis-driven improvement I described above. Certainly nothing is perfect, but we can see real progress happening. (Finally; Tesla FSD is a strawman. It's Waymo you need to argue with, and they're doing great, AFAICT.)

jqpabc123 4y ago
It's Waymo you need to argue with, and they're doing great, AFAICT. Let's disperse a few thousand of them at random locations across the country for everyday use and see what happens. AFAICT, no one has actually done this yet.
- sdenton4 4y ago
  It's a bad argument... The limited, expanding footprint is allowing them to get high reliability, exactly what you're saying you want from the systems, and which Tesla is failing to provide. Their systems are still adapting to stochastic road conditions and events, even if they aren't requiring the systems to handle them everywhere all at once. Success /anywhere/ goes a long way towards proving that the fundamental task of driving in the real world is machine learnable. There's a more interesting conversation to be had here than the one you're offering, in any case. And you haven't addressed the total failure of the Marcus crew to actually produce working solutions...

jqpabc123 4y ago

It's Waymo you need to argue with, and they're doing great, AFAICT. Let's disperse a few thousand of them at random locations across the country for everyday use and see what happens. AFAICT, no one has actually done this yet.

sdenton4 4y ago
It's a bad argument... The limited, expanding footprint is allowing them to get high reliability, exactly what you're saying you want from the systems, and which Tesla is failing to provide. Their systems are still adapting to stochastic road conditions and events, even if they aren't requiring the systems to handle them everywhere all at once. Success /anywhere/ goes a long way towards proving that the fundamental task of driving in the real world is machine learnable. There's a more interesting conversation to be had here than the one you're offering, in any case. And you haven't addressed the total failure of the Marcus crew to actually produce working solutions...